The project combined large-scale observational analyses, modelling, conceptual synthesis, and experiments to assess how non-native species and proactive management strategies can sustain biodiversity and ecosystem functioning under climate change. A core activity consisted of assembling, cleaning, and harmonising continental-scale vegetation, trait, and resurvey datasets. These data were used to quantify the spatial and temporal contributions of non-native plant species to community functional diversity, enabling both static and dynamic assessments of their ecological roles. This work yielded robust, species-specific evidence showing that most non-native plants do not drive local biodiversity loss and that their impacts are modest compared to other anthropogenic pressures, thereby reframing alien species effects within broader global-change contexts.
Complementary empirical studies expanded the scope toward ecosystem services and multitrophic interactions. Using large observational databases, analyses quantified plant–pollinator interactions, host–herbivore relationships, and associations between native and non-native trees and fungal diversity. These studies demonstrated context-dependent contributions of non-native species, including altered interaction frequencies in pollination networks, complex fungal host associations, and potential climate-driven mismatches between plants and pollinators. Together, these results substantially broaden the empirical basis for evaluating functional consequences of species redistribution.
On the modelling side, species distribution models were developed and applied to project current and future climatic suitability across Europe. These models were used both analytically and as part of a structured, data-driven workflow for Functional Assisted Migration, integrating climate analogues, edaphic constraints, functional traits, and invasion risk. This workflow represents the first operational framework for selecting species based on functional objectives rather than static historical baselines and directly underpins experimental species selection. In parallel, modelling of urban-introduced tree species demonstrated that cities can substantially extend realised species ranges and place populations closer to future suitable climates, highlighting urban systems as potential stepping stones and testbeds for climate-driven range shifts.
The experimental component focused on translating climate projections into operational field scenarios. Site selection was completed, and climate-change treatments were derived by combining high-resolution climate projections with long-term local observations to define realistic, seasonally varying warming regimes and extreme-event drought scenarios. Species cultivation trials provided critical information on germination success and provenance suitability, optimising future experimental establishment. In parallel, the experimental infrastructure was fully developed, including the design, testing, and procurement of an infrared heating system and real-time environmental monitoring equipment.
Finally, the project delivered a strong conceptual synthesis that advances conservation science beyond static targets. A perspective paper articulated the limitations of traditional conservation baselines and formulated guidelines for proactive, function-oriented, and adaptive management under rapid environmental change. Together, the project outcomes include harmonised continental-scale datasets and analytical pipelines, empirical evidence on functional roles of non-native species, a validated Functional Assisted Migration framework, modelling insights into climate-driven range shifts, and a fully operational experimental setup. These achievements provide a coherent scientific foundation for advancing adaptive, evidence-based conservation and ecosystem management under climate change.
