ICARIA project, with a duration of 3 years, started in January 2023. In its first half, several achievements have been reached as shown by the deliverables uploaded on the project webpage (
https://www.icaria-project.eu/(odnośnik otworzy się w nowym oknie)).
At this stage, several ICARIA results have been obtained and some solutions, including methods and tools, have been prepared, updated and tested to be applied in the 3 different EU regions (Barcelona Metropolitan Area, Salzburg Region and South Aegean Region), selected as project case studies (CS) to assess climate risk and regional resilience for current and future scenarios.
Within Work Package (WP) 1, the ICARIA holistic modeling framework defined the procedure to achieve a comprehensive risk/impact assessment across different climate-related hazards in the context of climate change. Although implemented and validated through the 3 ICARIA CS, the framework is exportable to any other EU region. Furthermore, tailored near and long-term climate projections (up to 2100) of Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) have been downscaled for the 3 ICARIA CS based on the last emission scenarios used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Both statistical and dynamical approaches have been used allowing comparison of results and techniques. Finally, data gaps related to the whole risk assessment process (from climate data drivers to vulnerability and impact models) have been addressed.
WP2 and 3 have focused on hazard and impact models respectively. Specifically, hazard and impact assessment methodologies have been tailored to evaluate, firstly, the potential effects of climate change scenarios on different strategic assets and services and, secondly, the capacity of risk reduction of specific adaptation solutions. From the point of view of hazard assessment, ICARIA is considering coincident (occurring simultaneously) and consecutive (occurring successively) multiple hazards to take into account their possible exacerbation effect. This issue has been treated through the definition of the hazard modeling interactions and joint probability assessment of compound events based on copula probability theory.
Regarding risk assessment, several possible cascading effects have been defined and will be evaluated taking into account dynamics of disasters whereby the impact of a climate hazard generates a sequence of events and interactive causal chains among interdependent services and assets. 3 different tools from recent projects (Resilience Assessment Framework, Resilience Assessment Tool, Portfolio of Adaptation Measures) have been updated including new functionalities and a greater scope (
https://icaria.lnec.pt/(odnośnik otworzy się w nowym oknie) and
https://www.icariastrategies.eu(odnośnik otworzy się w nowym oknie)) while ICARIA Decision Support System (DSS) is currently under development according to project timeline.
To foster and ensure the replicability of the main project outcomes, two cycles of comprehensive risk and resilience assessment processes are to be performed in the CS. In each region, the first assessment (Trials) will focus on the best known and experienced climate hazards and potentially affected assets, while the second cycle (Mini-trials) will focus on other disasters and assets whose innovative methodologies will be replicated from other CS. With the aim of ensuring the readiness of ICARIA solutions, several tests regarding new or updated project methods and tools have been performed in the project lab tasks. Within WP4, “Trial design” has been already performed in each ICARIA CS.
Within WP5, several communication activities have been carried out (definition of graphic identity, building, launching and follow up of the project website, sharing of project newsletters and blogs, etc). In terms of dissemination achievements, ICARIA project position paper was published, while other scientific contributions have been published in scientific and technical journals such as proceedings of national and international conferences.
Social Sciences and Humanities disciplines have been employed to create and launch tailored Communities of Practices (CoPs) for each region involving case study facilitators, scientific experts, problem owners and other relevant stakeholders. A participatory process was fostered during the local workshop using to identify gaps and needs, to achieve a better understanding about risk awareness and to ensure co-creation of adaptation solutions. Two first workshops have been held in each region during the first phase of the project. A Stakeholder Engagement Plan has been elaborated as the reference document for both activating CoPs and developing related activities.
