The MARCHES project is basing its assessments on findings in systematic reviews of scientific literature on the specific health impacts of the pollutants in focus. There is robust evidence for the impacts from air pollution on a range of chronic diseases in the cardiopulmonary domain, some of which are leading to premature mortality. In recent years studies have pointed to further potential disease linkages. Among the new health impacts of interest, where the available evidence is scrutinized in MARCHES, are depression and inflammatory bowel disease as related to air pollution, and preterm birth and colorectal cancers as related to drinking water nitrates. For all the relevant health endpoints, exposure-response functions are derived to allow for statistical estimations of the associations between emissions and impacts. Reporting Period 1 had this effort as its top priority.
To obtain a high degree of accuracy in the analysis of health costs, exposure modeling with high spatial resolution is undertaken in MARCHES with state-of-the-art scientific atmospheric and hydro-geochemical modelling tools, that can capture the complexities of transport, dispersion and chemical transformation of the emissions. The MARCHES project relies on one of only nine high-resolution models in Europe that have qualified for inclusion in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service model ensemble, the DEHM model (Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model). It further relies on the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), which has gained international recognition as an authoritative tool for modeling of the transport of water and nutrients at catchment scale. Application of these modelling tools allows for a better understanding of which sources, sectors and pollutants that are responsible for the greatest health burdens, and thus should be targeted with appropriate mitigation measures. Reporting Period 1 started preparing the modelling tools through data acquisition and coordination among partners on the assumptions applied.
