Periodic Reporting for period 1 - RIDETHERISK (A Quantitative Risk Assessment for fragmental rockfall)
Okres sprawozdawczy: 2023-11-01 do 2025-04-30
Rockfalls are a significant and growing hazard in mountainous regions, increasingly exacerbated by climate change. Rising temperatures, permafrost degradation, and more frequent extreme weather events are destabilizing slopes and increasing the frequency and intensity of rockfall events. These hazards pose serious threats to transportation infrastructure, mountain communities, and industrial operations such as open-pit mining. In this context, there is an urgent need for more accurate, comprehensive tools to assess and manage rockfall risk.
Despite growing awareness, current approaches to rockfall risk management often fall short in providing decision-makers with the tools they need to quantify and compare risks across different scenarios. Traditional models often focus on the physical hazard alone, without adequately capturing the consequences for people, infrastructure, and economic activities. Moreover, a critical process (fragmentation, where falling rock blocks break into smaller pieces upon impact) is frequently overlooked. Fragmentation significantly increases the complexity and reach of rockfall events, making them more difficult to predict and manage.
RIDETHERISK project addresses these challenges by developing a new, physically based approach to simulate rockfall propagation that explicitly incorporates fragmentation dynamics. This scientific advancement is integrated into a broader framework: a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) method designed to estimate not only the probability of rockfall events but also their potential consequences in both civil and industrial contexts. The QRA method will provide a robust, time-integrated tool to quantify risk in terms of human safety, infrastructure damage, and economic disruption, enabling more informed, transparent, and effective decision-making.
The project is structured around three main objectives. First, it aims to improve the prediction of rockfall hazards by developing analytical solutions for fragmentation and implementing a new trajectory model that accounts for the behaviour of fragmented rockfalls. Second, it will create a comprehensive QRA framework that integrates hazard modelling with consequence analysis, offering a complete picture of risk. Third, RIDETHERISK will demonstrate the practical application of this method through two real-world case studies (one in an Alpine environment and one in a mining site) and produce technical guidelines to support its adoption by practitioners, policymakers, and infrastructure operators.
Hosted by the University of Newcastle in Australia for the first 18 months and concluding with a 12-month return phase at Politecnico di Torino in Italy, the project brings together international expertise in geotechnical engineering, risk modelling, and applied research. This collaboration ensures both scientific excellence and practical relevance.
Despite growing awareness, current approaches to rockfall risk management often fall short in providing decision-makers with the tools they need to quantify and compare risks across different scenarios. Traditional models often focus on the physical hazard alone, without adequately capturing the consequences for people, infrastructure, and economic activities. Moreover, a critical process (fragmentation, where falling rock blocks break into smaller pieces upon impact) is frequently overlooked. Fragmentation significantly increases the complexity and reach of rockfall events, making them more difficult to predict and manage.
RIDETHERISK project addresses these challenges by developing a new, physically based approach to simulate rockfall propagation that explicitly incorporates fragmentation dynamics. This scientific advancement is integrated into a broader framework: a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) method designed to estimate not only the probability of rockfall events but also their potential consequences in both civil and industrial contexts. The QRA method will provide a robust, time-integrated tool to quantify risk in terms of human safety, infrastructure damage, and economic disruption, enabling more informed, transparent, and effective decision-making.
The project is structured around three main objectives. First, it aims to improve the prediction of rockfall hazards by developing analytical solutions for fragmentation and implementing a new trajectory model that accounts for the behaviour of fragmented rockfalls. Second, it will create a comprehensive QRA framework that integrates hazard modelling with consequence analysis, offering a complete picture of risk. Third, RIDETHERISK will demonstrate the practical application of this method through two real-world case studies (one in an Alpine environment and one in a mining site) and produce technical guidelines to support its adoption by practitioners, policymakers, and infrastructure operators.
Hosted by the University of Newcastle in Australia for the first 18 months and concluding with a 12-month return phase at Politecnico di Torino in Italy, the project brings together international expertise in geotechnical engineering, risk modelling, and applied research. This collaboration ensures both scientific excellence and practical relevance.
The RIDETHERISK project has made significant progress in both its scientific and methodological objectives, focusing on two core areas: understanding the fragmentation processes in rockfall events and developing a robust Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) framework for assessing rockfall-related risks in civil and industrial contexts.
In the initial phase at Politecnico di Torino (Polito), the project began with an extensive desk-based review of existing knowledge on rockfall fragmentation. This review has been continuously updated throughout the project to reflect new findings and evolving insights. Field inspections were conducted at selected open-pit mining and mountain sites in the Alpine region, where rock blocks of various lithologies were collected. These blocks were mechanically characterized through laboratory tests, and many samples were prepared for future drop tests to be conducted during the return phase. These tests aim to validate the fragmentation model currently under development.
During the 15-month outgoing phase at the University of Newcastle (UoN), the focus shifted to experimental work. The first 11 months were dedicated to designing and conducting laboratory tests, while the remaining period was used to analyse the results and develop a theoretical fragmentation model. Artificial samples replicating the mechanical behaviour of brittle rock were created and tested to simulate rockfall conditions. A comprehensive testing campaign was carried out, including drop tests and material characterization tests such as uniaxial compressive strength, Brazilian tensile strength, and toughness tests. Additionally, non-conventional indirect tensile tests were designed and performed to explore fracture modes under static loading and checking the compatibility with those observed under dynamic loads.
To investigate the influence of internal discontinuities on fragmentation, approximately 550 spherical samples with four different discontinuity configurations were prepared and tested. These included variations in the number, orientation, and position of discontinuities within the samples. The tests were conducted using a specialized fragmentation cell equipped with six high-speed cameras to capture pre- and post-impact behaviour. The impact velocity and angle of the discontinuities were varied to simulate different real-world conditions. In parallel, around 250 material characterization tests were performed to ensure consistency across all sample batches.
The second major experimental focus was on the influence of block shape. A total of 180 prismatic, cuboid, and slab-shaped samples were prepared and tested using both drop tests and indirect tensile tests. These tests aimed to assess how shape affects impact duration, number of contact points, post-impact trajectories, and fragmentation patterns.
All test data were processed using TEMA3D software to analyse fragmentation occurrence, fragment size distribution, and trajectory behaviour.
From these experiments, preliminary empirical and analytical models have been developed to predict fragmentation occurrence and characteristics. While these models have shown promising results, refinement is ongoing to improve their accuracy and reliability. In parallel, a physical-based trajectory model using a lumped-mass approach has been developed, along with a dedicated trajectory simulation code. Once the fragmentation module is fully validated, it will be integrated into this model to enable comprehensive rockfall propagation analysis.
In addition to the experimental and modelling work, significant progress has been made in developing the QRA framework. Although originally planned for the return phase, several components have already been completed. A QRA method for assessing social risk on road infrastructure has been developed, providing a framework for integrating fragmentation effects once the model is finalized. A preliminary method for evaluating economic impacts, specifically traffic delays, has also been conceived. In the context of open-pit mining, a quantitative hazard assessment framework for social risk has been established, with economic risk assessment planned for the return phase.
A first application of the QRA method for social risk, without the fragmentation module, has been carried out on a road infrastructure in the northwestern Alps. This pilot study provided a preliminary quantification of the risk to human life from rockfall events, demonstrating the method’s practical applicability and laying the groundwork for future, more comprehensive assessments.
The main achievements of the project to date thus include:
1) A large-scale experimental dataset on rockfall fragmentation, covering the effects of internal discontinuities and block shape.
2) Preliminary empirical and analytical models to predict fragmentation occurrence, fragment size, and post-impact trajectories.
3) A physical-based trajectory model and simulation code, ready for integration with the fragmentation module.
4) A QRA framework for assessing social risks from rockfalls on road infrastructures, and preliminar studies for assessing economic risks in road infrastructures and in mining contexts.
5) A pilot application of the QRA method in a real-world Alpine setting, demonstrating its potential for practical use.
These achievements represent a significant step forward in the scientific understanding and practical management of rockfall hazards. The integration of fragmentation dynamics into a comprehensive QRA framework will ultimately provide decision-makers with a powerful tool to assess and mitigate rockfall risks, supporting safer infrastructure, more resilient communities, and better-informed policy and investment decisions.
In the initial phase at Politecnico di Torino (Polito), the project began with an extensive desk-based review of existing knowledge on rockfall fragmentation. This review has been continuously updated throughout the project to reflect new findings and evolving insights. Field inspections were conducted at selected open-pit mining and mountain sites in the Alpine region, where rock blocks of various lithologies were collected. These blocks were mechanically characterized through laboratory tests, and many samples were prepared for future drop tests to be conducted during the return phase. These tests aim to validate the fragmentation model currently under development.
During the 15-month outgoing phase at the University of Newcastle (UoN), the focus shifted to experimental work. The first 11 months were dedicated to designing and conducting laboratory tests, while the remaining period was used to analyse the results and develop a theoretical fragmentation model. Artificial samples replicating the mechanical behaviour of brittle rock were created and tested to simulate rockfall conditions. A comprehensive testing campaign was carried out, including drop tests and material characterization tests such as uniaxial compressive strength, Brazilian tensile strength, and toughness tests. Additionally, non-conventional indirect tensile tests were designed and performed to explore fracture modes under static loading and checking the compatibility with those observed under dynamic loads.
To investigate the influence of internal discontinuities on fragmentation, approximately 550 spherical samples with four different discontinuity configurations were prepared and tested. These included variations in the number, orientation, and position of discontinuities within the samples. The tests were conducted using a specialized fragmentation cell equipped with six high-speed cameras to capture pre- and post-impact behaviour. The impact velocity and angle of the discontinuities were varied to simulate different real-world conditions. In parallel, around 250 material characterization tests were performed to ensure consistency across all sample batches.
The second major experimental focus was on the influence of block shape. A total of 180 prismatic, cuboid, and slab-shaped samples were prepared and tested using both drop tests and indirect tensile tests. These tests aimed to assess how shape affects impact duration, number of contact points, post-impact trajectories, and fragmentation patterns.
All test data were processed using TEMA3D software to analyse fragmentation occurrence, fragment size distribution, and trajectory behaviour.
From these experiments, preliminary empirical and analytical models have been developed to predict fragmentation occurrence and characteristics. While these models have shown promising results, refinement is ongoing to improve their accuracy and reliability. In parallel, a physical-based trajectory model using a lumped-mass approach has been developed, along with a dedicated trajectory simulation code. Once the fragmentation module is fully validated, it will be integrated into this model to enable comprehensive rockfall propagation analysis.
In addition to the experimental and modelling work, significant progress has been made in developing the QRA framework. Although originally planned for the return phase, several components have already been completed. A QRA method for assessing social risk on road infrastructure has been developed, providing a framework for integrating fragmentation effects once the model is finalized. A preliminary method for evaluating economic impacts, specifically traffic delays, has also been conceived. In the context of open-pit mining, a quantitative hazard assessment framework for social risk has been established, with economic risk assessment planned for the return phase.
A first application of the QRA method for social risk, without the fragmentation module, has been carried out on a road infrastructure in the northwestern Alps. This pilot study provided a preliminary quantification of the risk to human life from rockfall events, demonstrating the method’s practical applicability and laying the groundwork for future, more comprehensive assessments.
The main achievements of the project to date thus include:
1) A large-scale experimental dataset on rockfall fragmentation, covering the effects of internal discontinuities and block shape.
2) Preliminary empirical and analytical models to predict fragmentation occurrence, fragment size, and post-impact trajectories.
3) A physical-based trajectory model and simulation code, ready for integration with the fragmentation module.
4) A QRA framework for assessing social risks from rockfalls on road infrastructures, and preliminar studies for assessing economic risks in road infrastructures and in mining contexts.
5) A pilot application of the QRA method in a real-world Alpine setting, demonstrating its potential for practical use.
These achievements represent a significant step forward in the scientific understanding and practical management of rockfall hazards. The integration of fragmentation dynamics into a comprehensive QRA framework will ultimately provide decision-makers with a powerful tool to assess and mitigate rockfall risks, supporting safer infrastructure, more resilient communities, and better-informed policy and investment decisions.
The RIDETHERISK project builds upon established evidence that fragmentation processes significantly influence rockfall risk, and it aims to make substantial theoretical, methodological, and practical contributions to the understanding, modelling, and prediction of fragmental rockfalls. Central to the project is the development of a novel, comprehensive Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) method that quantifies risk not only in terms of potential casualties but also in terms of disruption and delay to traffic and socio-economic activities. This approach represents a significant advancement in the field of natural hazard risk assessment, offering a more holistic and actionable framework for decision-makers.
The expected results of RIDETHERISK include the creation of high-quality, openly accessible scientific knowledge on rockfall processes, which will serve as a foundation for future research and innovation in natural hazard management. This knowledge will also support the development of advanced educational and training programs.
Moreover, the QRA method itself is expected to become a valuable tool for public administrations and private stakeholders, who often struggle with defining risk management strategies, prioritizing interventions, and allocating resources for mitigation. By providing a transparent, quantitative basis for decision-making, the method will improve the effectiveness and fairness of risk governance. The societal and economic impacts of the project are thus closely tied to the adoption and dissemination of the QRA method. In the medium term, benefits are expected when the method is used by practitioners or supported by local authorities and private companies, such as those in the mining and infrastructure sectors. In the long term, broader and more systemic impacts are anticipated if the method is codified or standardized by policymakers.
Technologically and economically, RIDETHERISK will provide a predictive tool that enables administrations and companies to assess the consequences of their decisions and optimize their rockfall risk mitigation strategies. This will help prevent social and economic losses, create safer working and living environments, increase profitability, and free up resources that can be reinvested in research and innovation.
To ensure the further uptake and long-term success of RIDETHERISK outcomes, several key needs have been identified. These include continued research to refine and validate the QRA method across diverse geological and climatic contexts; demonstration projects to showcase its practical application and benefits; and the development of supportive regulatory and standardisation frameworks at both national and EU levels. Access to markets and finance will be essential for the commercialisation of tools and services based on the QRA method, while intellectual property rights (IPR) support will help protect and promote innovation. International collaboration and alignment with global standards will further enhance the impact and scalability of the project’s results.
In summary, RIDETHERISK is poised to deliver significant scientific, societal, and economic benefits by advancing the state of the art in rockfall risk assessment and contributing to the development of more resilient, informed, and equitable risk management policies across Europe and beyond.
The expected results of RIDETHERISK include the creation of high-quality, openly accessible scientific knowledge on rockfall processes, which will serve as a foundation for future research and innovation in natural hazard management. This knowledge will also support the development of advanced educational and training programs.
Moreover, the QRA method itself is expected to become a valuable tool for public administrations and private stakeholders, who often struggle with defining risk management strategies, prioritizing interventions, and allocating resources for mitigation. By providing a transparent, quantitative basis for decision-making, the method will improve the effectiveness and fairness of risk governance. The societal and economic impacts of the project are thus closely tied to the adoption and dissemination of the QRA method. In the medium term, benefits are expected when the method is used by practitioners or supported by local authorities and private companies, such as those in the mining and infrastructure sectors. In the long term, broader and more systemic impacts are anticipated if the method is codified or standardized by policymakers.
Technologically and economically, RIDETHERISK will provide a predictive tool that enables administrations and companies to assess the consequences of their decisions and optimize their rockfall risk mitigation strategies. This will help prevent social and economic losses, create safer working and living environments, increase profitability, and free up resources that can be reinvested in research and innovation.
To ensure the further uptake and long-term success of RIDETHERISK outcomes, several key needs have been identified. These include continued research to refine and validate the QRA method across diverse geological and climatic contexts; demonstration projects to showcase its practical application and benefits; and the development of supportive regulatory and standardisation frameworks at both national and EU levels. Access to markets and finance will be essential for the commercialisation of tools and services based on the QRA method, while intellectual property rights (IPR) support will help protect and promote innovation. International collaboration and alignment with global standards will further enhance the impact and scalability of the project’s results.
In summary, RIDETHERISK is poised to deliver significant scientific, societal, and economic benefits by advancing the state of the art in rockfall risk assessment and contributing to the development of more resilient, informed, and equitable risk management policies across Europe and beyond.