Periodic Reporting for period 1 - DEMOQUAS (DEsigning, Manufacturing and Operating Quantification of Uncertainties to increase Aviation Safety)
Okres sprawozdawczy: 2024-05-01 do 2025-10-31
The integration of novel propulsion technologies presents a formidable challenge in the field of aviation. Uncertainties pervade every phase of aircraft development, from initial design to operational deployment. These uncertainties cast shadows over safety and efficiency.
Traditional approaches struggle to grapple with the complexity and unpredictability inherent in these technologies. With this in mind, the EU-funded DEMOQUAS project aims to revolutionize the field with its pioneering framework of uncertainty quantification (UQ) and holistic aircraft/engine design tools.
By navigating uncertainties across design, manufacturing, and operations phases, the project will enhance safety and decision-making. With a focus on six industrially relevant test cases, the project aims to elevate UQ methods, while mitigating simulation time constraints and enhancing accuracy.
To achieve its main goal, the project will build on the following main objectives:
• Perform detailed characterization of uncertainties across all life cycle phases of aircraft development; the selected application will be a turboprop aircraft exploiting the potential of alternative fuels such as hydrogen and SAF;
• Employ and further develop methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ), when novel propulsion technologies are considered;
• Verify and validate the UQ methodologies via multiple testing campaigns;
• Deliver an innovative UQ framework for aviation, that will contribute to the elimination of potential flaws in the development chain of futuristic propulsive components, and, which could put these technologies at risk.
• Promote the project's benefits via targeted synergies with other projects at European, national and international level.
The objectives of DEMOQUAS are neither limited to the results emerging within its life cycle, nor to the overall ambition of the technologies developed. The project will contribute to the overall strategy of enhancing sustainability for contemporary propulsion systems across different market applications,
starting from low-speed and expanding to high-speed aircraft configurations.
The success of this project will contribute towards the EU’s goal of maintaining a high level of transport safety for its citizens (‘zero fatalities and serious injuries by 2050’). The DEMOQUAS principle will demonstrate its high contribution to establishing resilience in Europe’s transport systems to prevent, mitigate and recover from disruptions. The foundational development of DEMOQUAS, namely the establishment of a unified UQ-framework will constitute a key advancement in Research and Innovation activities, underpinning the three safety pillars: technologies, regulations and human factors. Hence, the project’s core impact will be materialized accordingly. This will be achieved through the concentrated efforts to promote its activities as critical to optimizing safety and making clear how each decision taken at the different life cycle phases, will affect the final outcome of a futuristic product.
Traditional approaches struggle to grapple with the complexity and unpredictability inherent in these technologies. With this in mind, the EU-funded DEMOQUAS project aims to revolutionize the field with its pioneering framework of uncertainty quantification (UQ) and holistic aircraft/engine design tools.
By navigating uncertainties across design, manufacturing, and operations phases, the project will enhance safety and decision-making. With a focus on six industrially relevant test cases, the project aims to elevate UQ methods, while mitigating simulation time constraints and enhancing accuracy.
To achieve its main goal, the project will build on the following main objectives:
• Perform detailed characterization of uncertainties across all life cycle phases of aircraft development; the selected application will be a turboprop aircraft exploiting the potential of alternative fuels such as hydrogen and SAF;
• Employ and further develop methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ), when novel propulsion technologies are considered;
• Verify and validate the UQ methodologies via multiple testing campaigns;
• Deliver an innovative UQ framework for aviation, that will contribute to the elimination of potential flaws in the development chain of futuristic propulsive components, and, which could put these technologies at risk.
• Promote the project's benefits via targeted synergies with other projects at European, national and international level.
The objectives of DEMOQUAS are neither limited to the results emerging within its life cycle, nor to the overall ambition of the technologies developed. The project will contribute to the overall strategy of enhancing sustainability for contemporary propulsion systems across different market applications,
starting from low-speed and expanding to high-speed aircraft configurations.
The success of this project will contribute towards the EU’s goal of maintaining a high level of transport safety for its citizens (‘zero fatalities and serious injuries by 2050’). The DEMOQUAS principle will demonstrate its high contribution to establishing resilience in Europe’s transport systems to prevent, mitigate and recover from disruptions. The foundational development of DEMOQUAS, namely the establishment of a unified UQ-framework will constitute a key advancement in Research and Innovation activities, underpinning the three safety pillars: technologies, regulations and human factors. Hence, the project’s core impact will be materialized accordingly. This will be achieved through the concentrated efforts to promote its activities as critical to optimizing safety and making clear how each decision taken at the different life cycle phases, will affect the final outcome of a futuristic product.
The first eighteen months of the project focused on the following elements:
- Scenario definition including top-level aircraft and propulsion architecture requirements;
- Methodology and model development; modelling activities including robust optimisation;
- Uncertainty Quantification methods: Reviewing and implementation;
- Uncertainty characterization implementation of methods for the critical building blocks of the project;
- Requirements definition for the hydrogen storage tank;
- Topology optimization for the cold plate heat exchangers;
- Manufacturing setup of the hydrogen storage tank configuration and the cold plate heat exchangers;
- Engine degradation and remaining useful life model development;
- Machine Learning method development for safety report analysis;
- Machine Learning method development for prediction of pilot performance;
- Website development; dissemination and communication activities;
- Scenario definition including top-level aircraft and propulsion architecture requirements;
- Methodology and model development; modelling activities including robust optimisation;
- Uncertainty Quantification methods: Reviewing and implementation;
- Uncertainty characterization implementation of methods for the critical building blocks of the project;
- Requirements definition for the hydrogen storage tank;
- Topology optimization for the cold plate heat exchangers;
- Manufacturing setup of the hydrogen storage tank configuration and the cold plate heat exchangers;
- Engine degradation and remaining useful life model development;
- Machine Learning method development for safety report analysis;
- Machine Learning method development for prediction of pilot performance;
- Website development; dissemination and communication activities;
- Uncertainty quantification (UQ) applied to conceptual design methods for the estimation of masses and aerodynamic characteristics and the evaluation of the uncertainty propagation (UP) to the results of the mission analysis, such as emissions and block fuel.
- Open data on engine degradation and Remaining Useful Life (RUL). It includes sensor data from engine operations and the respective target labels (performance indicators and RUL) during engines’ life. It supports the development of AI/ML models for predictive maintenance with a focus on uncertainty quantification, explainability and trustworthiness. Data preprocessing, description and statistics will be included.
- Uncertainty quantification (UQ) applied to the thermal management system of a selected aircraft type, for the estimation of the HEX weights followed by an architecture and heat load optimization. The results include outputs regarding overall HEX weights, heat loads, and hydrogen temperature, along with their respective distributions based on the characterized uncertainties.
- Parametric design, topology optimization, CFD simulations, manufacturing data and laboratory scale tests of novel cold plate heat exchanger (HEX) configurations for power electronics.
- Design, manufacturing and testing results of a down-scaled prototype vessel, for cryogenic hydrogen for aerospace applications, based on composite materials and novel manufacturing methods.
- Atmospheric combustor tests using Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) and hydrogen.
- Machine Learning method development for quantified - categorised safety reports for occurrences in airport operations and pilot-related human factors.
- Open data on engine degradation and Remaining Useful Life (RUL). It includes sensor data from engine operations and the respective target labels (performance indicators and RUL) during engines’ life. It supports the development of AI/ML models for predictive maintenance with a focus on uncertainty quantification, explainability and trustworthiness. Data preprocessing, description and statistics will be included.
- Uncertainty quantification (UQ) applied to the thermal management system of a selected aircraft type, for the estimation of the HEX weights followed by an architecture and heat load optimization. The results include outputs regarding overall HEX weights, heat loads, and hydrogen temperature, along with their respective distributions based on the characterized uncertainties.
- Parametric design, topology optimization, CFD simulations, manufacturing data and laboratory scale tests of novel cold plate heat exchanger (HEX) configurations for power electronics.
- Design, manufacturing and testing results of a down-scaled prototype vessel, for cryogenic hydrogen for aerospace applications, based on composite materials and novel manufacturing methods.
- Atmospheric combustor tests using Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) and hydrogen.
- Machine Learning method development for quantified - categorised safety reports for occurrences in airport operations and pilot-related human factors.