PREPARED “ENABLING CHANGE”

Final Report Summary - PREPARED (PREPARED “ENABLING CHANGE”)

Executive Summary:

The European water sector needs to prepare itself for the changes in climate that may impact on the sector in different way such as flooding, droughts, changes in temperature, more extreme events. PREPARED Enabling Change addressed practical problems and decisions that the urban water utilities have to face in order to adapt the water supply and sanitation sector to the impacts of climate change. In the PREPARED project researchers, universities and technology suppliers worked together with urban utilities on the development and demonstration of tools, approaches and decision support systems (DSS) to help water utilities to better cope with the anticipated and uncertain impacts of climate change.

PREPARED also offered guidance on how to deal with the uncertainty in the global IPCC scenarios and the translation of such scenarios to a very local level, the level at which the targeted end-users and problem-owners have to operate. Awareness was created amongst end-users through participatory approaches and enabling change within the local and national decision making processes. The decision making and policy processes at local level have been positively affected through the key involvement of the problem-owners: the city utilities.

The water sector identified and prioritized the challenges posed by climate change, the adaptation solutions needed to cope with these challenges and the gaps in knowledge that needed to be addressed by PREPARED. The tools and solutions developed within PREPARED were directly demonstrated at one or more of the (14) participating city utilities.

The project linked comprehensive research with development and investment programmes in these utilities. This connection provided significant synergistic opportunities that the utilities in turn utilised to improve their preparedness for the on-going changes related to the provision of water supply and sanitation. The outcomes of this R&D project were used as input for the planning, investment and rehabilitation programmes of the participating cities. The gained experience of the utilities, including success and practical difficulties/drawbacks were shared with the actors of the water sector in Europe. The PREPARED solutions are part of on-going urban investment programmes. The ultimate objective was environmental-concern based rehabilitation and investment programmes for water supply and sanitation systems (including storm water). The cities/utilities involved will be prepared and resilient to the impacts of climate change in the short and in the long term.

By involving a diverse range of European and non-European cities, that aimed to demonstrate and ‘sell’ the tested concepts to the rest of the world (both inside and outside the PREPARED family), we have secured a community of launching customers in our city utilities network.

Project Context and Objectives:
A summary description of project context and objectives (not exceeding 4 pages IPCC climate change scenarios have a global perspective and need to be scaled down to the local level, where decision-makers have to balance risks and investment cost. Very high investments might be a waste of money and too little investment could result in unacceptable risk for the local community. PREPARED was a utility driven project and as a result the research and technology developed within the project was based on the anticipated impacts of climate change the water supply and sanitation industry identified as challenges for the years to come. PREPARED also involved the local community in problem identification and in jointly finding acceptable system solutions, that had general support, through active learning processes. In the project European knowledge was combined with valuable and complementary knowledge from Australia (Melbourne) and the USA (Seattle).
The major objective of PREPARED was achieve an infrastructure for waste water, drinking water and stormwater management that should not only be able to better cope with new scenarios on climate change but that should also be managed in an optimal way. This involved the development of complex monitoring and sensor systems, better integration and handling of complex data, better exploitation of existing infrastructures through improved real time control, improved design concepts and guidelines for more flexible and more robust infrastructures. Activities and solutions within PREPARED were based on a risk assessment and risk management approach for the whole urban water cycle, through the development and application of Water Cycle Safety Plans. Another objective was to design sensors and models that would enable faster and better action on changes and new design rules for more resilient infrastructure design.

Figure 1: Map with PREPARED cities

Table 1: Climate change related issues that were identified by the city utilities at the start of the project

Within the PREPARED project various sub-objectives were identified and addressed:
1. Decision-making is forward looking, formulating risks and opportunities related to actions extending into the future and making a selection among alternatives. The alternatives have to be assessed on how this will work out taking into account uncertainties. The objective was to provide decision-makers with a framework and supporting tools to apply when decisions have to be made on how to adapt to climate change effects on water and waste water systems. The aim was to stimulate and enable them, to assess and manage risks and uncertainties and to focus on integrated solutions for the total water cycle. This was done through the development of a generic risk management framework – the Water Cycle Safety Plan (WCSP) – to assess and manage climate change related risks for the water cycle. Risk Assessment (RA) provides a basis for systematic inventory of risks and for decision support on what adaptation measures to take. Risk Management (RM) provided a basis for the required level of preparedness and the monitoring needed.

2. Taking into account the changing context due to climate change, the continuation of the urbanisation process and the more demanding performance levels of urban water systems, the objective was to increase the technological capacity and performance of traditional water supply and sanitation systems by better use of sensors and models. This was achieved through real and efficient implementation of existing methods and tools and also through the development of innovative tools and methods. This improved on existing limitations and enhanced the capability of existing measuring and forecasting technologies, as well as new monitoring, modelling and control system integration and overall on-line optimisation. In particular, the involvement of SMEs in this objective contributed to both the dissemination of its results and the strengthening the European industrial competitiveness in this field.

Specific progress in the performance of traditional urban water systems facing global change had to be realised through better knowledge of the system, both in fundamental understanding as well as real time knowledge, which could be obtained only by better monitoring strategies and tools and through better operation, management and planning based on better modelling approaches, at both short and long times scales.

3. In order to adapt to the changed boundary conditions for the water cycle caused by climate change, initiatives needed to be taken to increase the technological capacity and performance of the traditional water supply and sanitation systems, which made it possible to handle a wider and more rapidly changing input – quantity and quality wise – still having the same, or increasing requirements for the output.

Adaptation of existing systems to this new working regime required faster responding and more efficient operation, which could be obtained by the development of new integrated real time control strategies and early warning/decision support systems (real time management). However, as demands to the working regime continued to increase, it was thought to be necessary to combine the effort with the construction of new infrastructure components (e.g. storage/retention volumes) using new component designs adapted to better meet the requirements of the more challenging demands.

Use was made of the PREPARED work on existing measuring and forecasting technologies, new monitoring, modelling and control system integration and overall on-line optimisation and also of an already existing open configurable real time monitoring system. This monitoring system already included different types of real time data acquisition, validation, storage, aggregation, visualisation and automated reporting – however, with the focus on traditional sensors. Research within PREPARED enabled the system to handle the multidimensional resulting in an open integrated monitoring tool box and database system.

4. Another PREPARED objective concerned the planning for resilient water supply and sanitation systems, through the provision of guidance and frameworks to help the utilities realise more resilient water supply and sanitation systems. In this planning process the whole urban water cycle was addressed, with the aim to meet both water supply objectives and urban stormwater and wastewater objectives. This resulted in hybrid strategies for centralised and decentralised approaches that complement each another. In addition recommendations were produced on managing underground and above ground storm water assets in a complementary and integrated way.
Issues that needed to be studied and remedied were:

• Future water shortages due to the worsening supply/demand balance due to generally dryer and hotter climate, longer periods of drought and multinational competition for water resources;
• More frequent, more rapid and more severe raw water quality depreciation caused by heavy rainfall events and related water-borne disease outbreaks;
• Drinking water treatment plants that have to cope with more frequent and rapid quality changes, and the hygienic multi barriers system that will be challenged;
• Adaptation of water supply systems to new raw water qualities with regards to physical and chemical parameters such as NOM and also microbiological quality;
• The increase of extreme events and storm water runoff and the rapid rise of the seawater level and the impact on the sewer systems;
• More sediments in wastewater networks due to longer dry periods and higher flushing rates during rainfall events;
• Keeping wastewater networks clean to safeguard the hydraulic transport capacity and to avoid clogging and thus minimize pollution discharge during extreme runoff events;
• Develop protocols for the operation of wastewater treatments plants under the new climate regime and under extreme conditions and the development of better rehabilitation criteria for networks and treatment systems.

5. In addressing the pressures caused by climate change, whose impact is uncertain in nature, the traditional approach of simply building large infrastructure with long user life could no longer be relied upon to deliver an acceptable level of risk over the medium time scale. A more flexible adaptable approach that utilises a variety of smaller scale interventions was required. However, adaptive approaches required changes in the behaviour of each stakeholder group, including professionals, decision makers and the public. For this to happen, capacity had to be developed in each of these groups to deliver the changes in behaviour that were thought to be essential. This required a new way of looking at responses, especially those that entail traditional engineering that are seldom reversible. ‘Responses’ replaces the old language of ‘solutions’, as no intervention will do more than enable us to live with the changing external system drivers for the time being. Responses need to be able to accommodate changes (adaptations) in response to new knowledge, demands, expectations, and in the assessment of performance.
To achieve the above tools had to be delivered and knowledge and learning material for all stakeholders had to be produced that enabled them to acquire the capacity to manage their water supply and sanitation systems using an adaptive approach.

6. The technological and system development in PREPARED were based on the needs of the cities. The key objective in the final year of the project was to promote the implementation of the outcomes at the European level through validation and demonstration in the PREPARED cities/utilities. This real-life demonstration was the central point to primarily ensure getting the most value out of the financial and research input by providing tested and applied relevant climate-proof solutions to drinking water and sanitation systems. The ultimate objective was to gain, at the end of the four-year project, a proven, visible, European portfolio of adaptive solutions for the water sector and support the EU commitment and leadership in the field of climate change.

Project Results:

A description of the main S&T results/foregrounds

Work area 1 Utilities Alliances – Test and Demonstration of PREPARED climate-proof solutions portfolio
Significant Results The most significant results achieved were the demonstration of a wide range of climate-change adaptation measures in practice throughout Europe.
On the water supply side management systems for optimization of energy and water availability (e.g. in Genoa and Barcelona) were used to demonstrate the potential capabilities of current systems under climate change conditions and to identify the most efficient options for system improvement. On a smaller scale possibilities for enhancing the capacity of natural treatment systems were identified and tested in Barcelona yielding recommendations for improving operation and maintenance under climate change conditions. A related cost-benefit-analysis showed that the proposed adaption measure will significantly reduce the O&M cost of the investigated recharge facility as well as mitigating the CO2 emissions originating from current O&M practices. In Istanbul rain-water-harvesting and grey-water re-use schemes were operated and a conceptual economic evaluation for an up-scaled system for a city quarter of 200.000 inhabitants was carried out. The results showed that taking into account the potentially growing risk of water stress in Turkey due to climate change dynamics, leading to fewer periods with rain and growing droughts, grey and rain water usage might be the only promising option, even though it seems to be an expensive one aligned with considerable CO2 emissions. Adaptation measures for drinking water treatment and distribution were demonstrated in Lisbon, Oslo, Berlin and Eindhoven. Most of these were related to an expected rise in microbial re-growth potential with rising temperatures and possible countermeasures. In Oslo, for example, a modification of the treatment scheme led to a reduction of biofilm formation potential by > 95 %. A model for microbial growth run in Eindhoven demonstrated clearly that the temperature and thus the number of micro-organisms depends not only on the ambient soil temperature but also considerably on the residence time in the network and therefore on the customers’ demand. In Berlin the methodology for determining the number of micro-organisms applied in Oslo was tested, thus demonstrating the transferability of the results.
Wastewater related climate-change adaptation measures were also demonstrated on different levels at the utilities: a soft-ware-tool for semi-automated date validation was applied in practice by the Lyon utility as well as a sonar sediment monitoring device for sewers. Grand Lyon was actively involved in the investigations and will continue to further improve these devices in collaboration with the researchers. A planning instrument for assessing the impact of different CSO control measures onto receiving waters was demonstrated in Berlin in close collaboration between the utility and the water authority, enabling them to optimize their planning for further measures under future climatic scenarios to achieve optimum effect for Berlin’s surface waters. A cost analysis showed that even though the benefit for the surface water status is highest, when impervious areas are reduced (in addition to adding storage volume to the sewer system), this scenario also yields the highest costs and the lowest cost-benefit ratio. Prevention of urban flooding was the focus of the demonstrations in Barcelona which included a coupled model as well as a cost-benefit analysis to justify new flood reduction measures. This, as well as the demonstrations on sediment monitoring and sediment modelling, were actively pursued by the involved utility showing their high interest and motivation to apply the developed research in practice. Demonstrations in Lisbon, Gliwice, Aarhus and Oslo aimed at enhancing surface water quality which is at risk to deteriorate through increased strong rain events causing combined sewer overflows. The systems applied included simulation of real time control of sanitation systems and the impact on the receiving waters (Oslo), early warning for faecal contamination in the Tagus estuary (Lisbon), enhanced real-time measuring and forecasting technologies (Gliwice), options for treatment of high flows at existing waste-water treatment plants (Oslo) and an operative integrated control system for combined sewers and wastewater treatment plants including an early warning system (according to the Bathing Water Directive) for the receiving waters (Aarhus). A common need for these systems is more accurate rainfall information, and real time sys¬tems supporting improved rainfall mon¬itoring were demonstrated in Lyon, Aarhus and Seattle.
Integrated approaches: To enable climate change adaptation were demonstrated in Lisbon, Eindhoven, Simferopol, Oslo, Wales and Melbourne: A major outcome of this project is the first practical implementation of the water cycle safety plan (WSCP) approach, integrating water supply, waste-water and environmental urban water issues. In addition a framework for adaptive water sensitive planning was developed and applied together with the Welsh water utility, resulting in a manual to support utilities in building their adaptive capacity. In Melbourne a calibrated virtual urban water systems software tool (DAnCE4Water) was applied to a sub-catchment, making interactions between climatic, economic and social developments transparent.

On-line catalogue of European adaptive initiatives of the water sector to face climate change impacts
Why a Catalogue of adaptation initiatives? Far from any debate between climate sceptics and scientists, adaptation to the impacts of climate change has become a reality for many water supply and sanitation utilities. For them, the question is not ‘do we need to adapt?’, but rather a) ‘adapt to what?’, b) ‘what to adapt?‘ and c) ‘how to adapt?’. For several utilities and stakeholders, these issues are new and they thus need support to find sound answers to these three major questions. While the answer to the question a) may seem relatively simple or beyond the scope of adaptation policies (here, the possible major threats and disruptions of urban water supply systems have been considered: water scarcity, floods and water quality issues) answering the questions b) and c) needs careful examination of existing adaptation schemes and planned or realized initiatives. Within the PREPARED-project, a Catalogue of European adaptive initiatives of the water sector to face climate change impacts has been compiled to support the implementation and development of solutions for addressing climate change impacts on the urban water sector. The catalogue is a living document that is updated regularly during the project when new solutions are found and initiatives are developed. The need for a further development into an on-line version of the Catalogue. Although a paper version of this catalogue is essential to gather the inventoried solutions in the most exhaustive possible way, there is a need for a broader communication and participation of the target audience, namely the utilities and stakeholders, which are also potential ‘feeders’ of this living database.
Thus, to bring these findings to a broader audience, an interactive version of the catalogue is being prepared. This on-line tool will comprise the full database of initiatives listed in the paper report, but will ultimately also list additional interactive information such as related publications, reports, web links, or interactive contents (videos, animations). The most innovative aspect of this on-line tool will be the proposed various search methods:
• a dynamic matrix to narrow down the search to given categories of initiatives,
• an alphabetical search with all the initiatives listed from A to Z,
• a geographical search (similarly to the geographical index of initiatives in the report),
• an extended full-text search to browse all initiatives independently of their respective categories.
• The dynamic matrix will be used to direct the user to the different categories which may be most relevant to his query, depending on:
• the risk factor that needs to be addressed (water scarcity, floods, water quality or other issues), the nature of the followed adaptation strategy (simple assessment, resistance initiatives, resilience initiatives, initiatives enhancing flexibility), other additional criteria such as the structural or nonstructural, the reactive or anticipatory and centralized or decentralized nature of the initiative.
The support of the search using these criteria will definitely facilitate the access to the background information in the database. This online version of the Catalogue will be of particular interest for stakeholders, planners or engineers from cities and utilities facing new investments and who would like to integrate climate change in their decisions. It will help them (1) to widen the scope to solutions to those implemented in other cities, and integrate innovative solutions, (2) to benefit from the experience of solutions implemented elsewhere, and (3) to get in touch with the concerned cities or utilities, and build up connections and/or alliances of cities and utilities. The webbased tool will help to go beyond the traditional approach of solving problems locally using classical, well-proven solutions, by informing and connecting the professionals in charge of projects concerned by climate change adaptation. Further features of this on-line tool and use within and beyond PREPARED.
The on-line tool will also facilitate the interaction with the PREPARED-team by providing extensive contact information. External contributions to the database will be encouraged using this platform, with a supervision and control of the proposed contributions. Finally, the on-line version of the catalogue will also provide some statistics on the initiatives in the database, for instance on geographical origin, followed adaptation strategy or current implementation status. The objectives of this on-line tool will be to supply the PREPARED consortium continuously with newly tested or implemented adaptation initiatives, to facilitate the exchanges with local utilities, and to support communication on the project’s research findings. Moreover, the on-line catalogue could serve as a platform to be used for other PREPARED-toolboxes or databases, for instance on risk-assessment and reduction measures, or on the results of the PREPARED demonstration studies. The final goal is that this tool can be used more comprehensively outside PREPARED and be updated or developed beyond the life of the PREPARED project.

S&T demonstrated at the PREPARED utilities
Barcelona
In the last IPCC report, southern Europe has been identified as a specially vulnerable area to climate change. In the Iberian peninsula, climate change will have the following effects (Pérez and Boscolo, 2010) at the end of 21st century: Temperature increase (up to 6 ºC increase in summer and 2-3 ºC in winter), Rainfall decrease (particularly in summer). Increase of extreme events, related both to rainfall and to high temperatures (over 30ºC) during longer periods. Some of the characteristics of Mediterranean climate include highly intense rain events, fre¬quently causing flash floods and debris flow events, and water scarcity. This highlights the importance of assessing the im¬pacts of climate change regarding extreme events in order to implement adaptation measures. To increase the city’s preparedness tools developed within PREPARED were demonstrated focusing on:
• Decision support system (DSS) for planning complex urban water systems for regions under water stress (D 1.2.1)
• Conceptual scheme of catchment and conservation of water from high flow events
• (D 1.2.4)
• Methodologies for urban runoff risk assessment (D 1.3.1)
• New methodologies for sediments monitoring in sewer networks (D 1.3.3)
Methodologies for urban runoff risk assessment
The methodology developed within PREPARED (Deliverable 5.3.1) was applied in the Raval district of Barcelona by the op¬erating utility CLABSA, considering climate and socioeconomic changes as drivers, and implementing structural strategies to cope with future impacts. Several climate change scenarios and socioeconomic scenari¬os were simulated and showed that the combination of climate and socioeconomic changes will lead to an increase of the im¬pacts in economic terms. The EAD (Expected Annual Damage) for the Raval district may increase from 1.7 M€ today to 6.3 M€ for the most pessimistic scenario, while adaptation strategies like build a new retention tank, improving the hydraulic capaci¬ty of the sewer network in the upstream basins and redesigning several pipes will decrease the EAD to values even lower than today. This highlights the importance of implementing adapta¬tion strategies to cope with both current and future impacts. Goods and properties damages for a rain event of 10 years of return period, and the different scenarios: baseline (2010); optimistic (2050); pessimistic (2050); and adaptation (2050). (D 1.3.1)

Berlin Due to climate change Berlin will be faced with two different challenges: due to de¬creasing precipitation (- 10 % until 2040) and increasing temperatures (leading to an increase in evaporation of about 2 %) the discharge in the Elbe catchment is predicted to decrease significantly. This will lead to a rise in treated efflu¬ent share in the city’s surface waters, especially during summer. In addition overflows of the combined sewer system (CSO) in Berlin’s city center lead to det¬rimental effects on urban river ecology several times per year during heavy rain events. Regional effects of global warm-ing could change the situation through (i) increased ecosystem vulnerability from higher river temperature in summer and reduced flow and (ii) changed frequency of overflows from higher or lower occur¬rence of heavy rain events. To increase the city’s preparedness tools developed within PREPARED were demonstrated by the Kompetenzzen¬trum Wasser Berlin (KWB), the Berliner Wasserbetriebe (BWB) and KRÜGER focusing on:
• Methodologies for biofilm forma¬tion potential in drinking water net¬works (D 1.2.2a)
• Software tool for semi-automated data validation tested for applica¬tion with groundwater level loggers (D 1.2.2b)
• A planning instrument for CSO
Planning instrument for an integrat¬ed and recipient/impact based CSO control
A planning instrument developed within WA5 was demonstrated on a stretch of the river Spree where depressions in dis¬solved oxygen (DO) in the river after CSO were identified to be of concern. Together with the local environmental authority different scenarios were sim¬ulated and the conducted analysis indi¬cates that sewer rehabilitation measures planned to be implemented until 2020 are predicted to reduce total CSO vol¬umes by 17% and discharged pollutant loads by 21 - 31%. The frequency of crit¬ical DO conditions for the most sensitive local fish species will decrease by one third. The studied increase in surface air and water temperature as part of the cli¬mate change scenarios leads to a sig¬nificant aggravation of DO stress due to background pollution in the Berlin River Spree, while acute DO depletions after CSO are barely affected. However, changes in rain intensity have a consid¬erable effect on CSO volumes, pollutant loads and the frequency of critical DO concentrations. The demonstration was completed in May 2013 and the tool now is being used for further planning of measures by BWB and the Berlin environmental authority.

Aarhus The main challenges that Aarhus will be faced with due to cli¬mate change will be a suspected increase in heavy rain events as well as a general rise of the sea level, both adding consid¬erably to the difficulty of avoiding flooding and combined sewer overflows in the old city center and thereby making it quite difficult to achieve/improve the water quality in the city’s Lake Brabrand, River Aarhus and the Aarhus harbour (according to the Bathing Water Directive). Planning showed that new traditional infrastructure (eg. storage tanks) could not stand alone. Efficient and flexible opera-tion – especially during rain – shall be secured by new integrat¬ed control and an early warning system. Budgeted costs are almost € 50 M (hereof approx. € 2 M for the control/warning systems) and in 2007 Aarhus City Council allocated the necessary funds. Construction works were completed in 2013. To increase the city’s preparedness, tools developed within PREPARED and included in the control/warning systems were demonstrated by DHI, Krüger and Aarhus Water focusing on:
• Integrated real time control of sanitation systems incl. ear¬ly warning for Water quality in receiving waters (D 1.3.4)
• Real time integrated monitoring system supporting im¬proved rainfall monitoring (D 1.3.8)
Integrated RT control of sanitation systems incl. ear¬ly warning for water quality in receiving waters
Integrated control of a combined sewer system including several storage tanks and a downstream wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) is implemented to optimize the overall performance of the total system. To be able to optimize the system several control handles must be available. Control handles are storage tanks at each of the main catchments, controllable weirs and gates, adjustable pumps for emptying the storage tanks and a variable hydraulic capacity at the WWTP. During rain, forecasts of flow in the main pipelines, filling of the individual storage tanks and inlet flow to the WWTP can be calculated. A cost function can determine the optimum flows in the main pipelines, optimum filling of each storage tank and optimum inlet flow at the WWTP, thus minimizing the impact of combined sewer overflows (CSO) on the environment. A simplified sewer network model is used to create flow input for the cost function, based on rain radar forecasts (D1.3.8). The warning system is built on the top of the control system and uses the same integrated modeling tool as for the planning. The warning system is designed to comply with the Bathing Water Directive by issuing a warning for the general public on both a public website and an app for smart phones.

Eindhoven Over the last 50 years, Eindhoven has de¬veloped from a settlement on the banks of rivers and stream into a densely popu¬lated area of over 200.000 inhabitants. Although once a city of heavy industry, Eindhoven has now become a city of in¬novation and R&D. Brainport Eindhoven now is one of the strongest economic regions in Europe. During these develop¬ments, water infrastructure has not kept up with the expansion, nor the changes of industry and functions. As a result, Eindhoven is confronted with various shortcomings in the urban water system. The effects of climate change are likely to worsen the adverse effects of this geo¬logical situation and the shortcomings of the urban water system. Intense rainfall will increase the occurrence of water on streets which leads to health risks and reduction of public safety. Intense rain¬fall will also affect surface water quality through combined sewer overflows and poor WWTP performance. Prolonged drought periods will affect the natural areas. To increase the city’s preparedness tools developed within PREPARED were demonstrated by the R&D partner KWR together with the utility partners Munic¬ipality of Eindhoven, the water supply company Brabant Water and the water board De Dommel focussing on:
• Real time modelling tool for micro¬bial regrowth in distribution net¬works (D 1.2.10)
• Water Cycle Safety Planning (D 1.4.1)
• Quantitative risk assessment (D 2.3.4) and cost-benefit analysis (D 2.4.2) with University of Exeter and IWW
Water Cycle Safety Planning in Ein¬dhoven
The WCSP framework developed in PRE¬PARED provides a structured approach to assess risks and find solutions for the integrated urban water system. This was demonstrated in Eindhoven where the stakeholders worked together to prepare for climate change. Activities were or¬ganized around three workshops where strong interaction between stakeholders was initiated, Stakeholders also worked together in smaller meetings and on pro¬jects focusing on specific aspects. The major findings were that the urban water system does not face high risks, nor is climate change expected to in¬crease risks to a level where serious health or safety issues would occur. How¬ever, environmental risks for the Dommel river can be significant, and direct and indirect damage is expected to increase through climate change. The WCSP pro¬ject allowed stakeholders to exchange knowledge and identify new risks. Good cooperation between stakeholders on the most important risks already existed. Criticism on the WCSP was that it was formal and required much time to com¬plete all steps to the full extent. Since no mayor risks or investment decisions are at play in Eindhoven, there were doubts if fully going through the steps would be efficient. Therefore the WCSP philosophy was adopted in a more pragmatic way, using the benefits of interaction and sys¬tematic approach but being efficient in choosing which issues to address. The demonstration highlighted the challeng¬es of performing integrated risk manage¬ment between all the daily activities and disturbances.

Genoa The Province of Genoa is the major city of Ligurian Region, that is characterised by a relevant vulnerability because of its pe¬culiar physical landscape, being between high mountains and the sea and few landplanes. The high urbanization along the coastline and the critical use of natural resources have some¬times broken the equilibrium between man and nature. Climate change effects play a significant role in establishing the limits of this equilibrium and the city has to be prepared mainly in the following challenges: i) long period of no rain, with the consequence of no water from water intakes and decreasing of aquifer level and reservoirs level; ii) the variation of rainfall regime, with the consequence of drought period or heavy rainfall is leading to a stronger difficulty on the access of water resources and to a higher complexity on water resources planning. To increase the city’s preparedness, tools developed within PREPARED were demonstrated by the project partner IREN Aqua Gas and the water supply company of Genoa, Mediterra¬nea delle Acque, focusing on:
• Models simulating the effect of alternative price systems and regulation schemes on the demand of water in urban are¬as to support water resource planning (D 1.2.3)
• Decision support system for the competing uses of source water incl. protection of water intakes (D 1.2.6)
Decision support system for competing uses of source water incl. protection of water intakes
In order to improve the management of Genoa’s water supply system a Decision Support System (DSS) for daily management was developed, backed by off-line optimization and simulation models of the system at a coarser time scale (month). The DSS basically receives and processes information from the daily book keeping system (BKS) in order to provide decisions on how much water to withdraw from reservoirs and wells. The major finding is that optimal average storage levels of reser-voirs could always be substantially lower than the historical ones. The comparison between the shadow management of six years (2007-2012) based on the optimized rules and the actual management of the same period, showed that an optimized management would lead to an increase in energy production by 43% and a reduction of groundwater ab¬straction by nearly 20%. With the collaboration of DHI and S::CAN, a major attention was given also to protection of water intake. A micro-station for monitoring the main river intake water quality was installed and integrated with the system platform (DIMS). Presently, selected infor¬mation about water resources from BKS and water quality in¬formation about Scrivia River from S::CAN station are managed and stored in DIMS.

Gliwice Gliwice is a city with 200.000 inhabitants in the densely popu¬lated urban area of the Upper Silesia in southern Poland. Dur¬ing the last 20 years the city, with an economy once based on heavy industry, is actively operating on the innovation market. Climate change has a significant impact on the frequency of extreme weather events in Gliwice. During the most severe rainfall events, despite of the continuous modernisation of the sewer and drainage system, the city centre is flooded regularly approximately once a year. This causes damage to buildings and infrastructure and is a real threat to public safety. The com¬bined sewer-system in the hist orical part of the city, designed in the beginning of the 20th century, cannot c ope with the large amount of storm water. To increase the city’s preparedness a tool developed within PREPAR ED was demonstrated by the project partners IETU (Institute for Ecology of Industrial Areas) and the city’s Water Supply and Sanitation Company (PWiK) focussing on:
• enhanced real-time measuring and forecasting technolo¬gies for combined sewer systems (D 1.3.11)
Enhanced real-time measuring and forecasting technolo¬gies for combined sewer systems
The solution demonstrated in Gliwice as a part of the PRE¬PARED project is an enhanced real-time measuring and fore¬casting system developed within WP 4.5. The measuring and forecasting system for combined sewer system is composed of three main parts: 1) flow monitoring system, 2) rainfall monitor¬ing and forecasting system and 3) hydraulic model of the sewer system. An example of such system was tested in the medieval Old Town streets and the Market Square in the city centre. The monitoring and modeling system demonstrated in Gliwice allows to: predict how future (up to 35 hours) rainfall will af¬fect the combined sewer system in Gliwice and where a risk of flooding and overflows is given and to collect and analyse long time series of rainfall and flow data. In the next stage a series of future climate scenarios will be used as an input to the model to identify if some parts of infrastructure have to be redesigned to prevent adverse effects of changing rainfall patterns.

Istanbul Growing population and rapid industri¬al developments in combination with predictable climate change influences on water sources for Mediterranean ba¬sin lead putting into practice improved adopted strategies for Istanbul. The city relays on basically surface water re¬sources which also thought to increase the impacts or risks of climate change. The anticipated impacts are re gional momentary drought periods, extreme events of rainfall causing floods be¬coming more noticeable. Referring to perception of need for innovative water resources along with pollution control and mitigation of climate change impact issues rainwater harvesting (RWH) and grey water (GW) reuse concepts are cur¬rently being experimentally assessed. To increase the city’s preparedness a tool developed within PREPARED was demonstrated by the project partners TUBITAK focussing on a conceptual scheme for rainwater harvesting and grey water manage¬ment (D 1.2.5)
Conceptual scheme for rainwater harvesting and grey water manage¬ment in Istanbul
RWH and GW reuse pilot systems were set up, operated and assessed as alter¬native water resources for Istanbul to achieve sustainable water management, conservation of resources and to cope with impacts due to climate change. The GW treatment system presented robust and operationally simple features, while providing re-useable water which con¬tinuously satisfies non-potable reuse criteria. In addition to that, the RWH pi¬lot study essentially contributed to the appraisal of RWH concept by accom¬plishing characterization from various sources, focusing conventional physical, chemical, biological parameters and rel¬evant micro-pollutants and testing imple¬mentation technologies under Mediter¬ranean conditions for urban areas. The results obtained can be up-scaled for further assessment studies in large res¬idential or catchment areas for the im¬plementation of the concept. It should be pointed out that if suitably designed and operated in integrated manner RWH systems and GW reuse strategies may significantly contribute to the reduction of potable water consumption and also run-off control.

Lisbon Climate change predicted impacts potentially aggravate the ex¬isting constraints on southern European water infrastructures. In the case of Lisbon, increase in temperature, reduction of average annual precipitation, increase in rainfall intensity and sea level rise are expected. Although the expected changes in precipitation will lead to a decrease in runoff, Castelo do Bode reservoir is foreseen to have enough storage capacity to handle this situation. Other water sources, however, can present short¬age of water, especially during severe droughts that should occur more often in the next decades. Increase of rainfall in¬tensity can lead to increase in flooding and combined sewer overflow frequency as well as to reduce waste water treatment efficiency, the later due to fluctuations in pollutant concentra¬tions and in the inflow to the WWTP. Higher temperatures have the potential to enhance anaerobic conditions in wastewater systems, and thereby increase the likelihood of odour and cor¬rosion problems. To increase the city’s preparedness tools developed within PREPARED were demonstrated by the project partners LNEC and EPAL, with collaboration of other stakeholders, namely SIMTEJO, focusing on:
• System for distributed real time disinfection control (D 1.2.7)
• System for early warning of faecal contamination in rec¬reational waters (D 1.3.6)
• Water Cycle Safety planning (D 1.4.2)

Demonstrating a system for early warning of faecal con¬tamination in recreational waters
An early warning system, integrating an innovative monitoring of combined sewer overflows (CSO) and a real-time monitoring and modelling platform was developed, setup and tested at a Lisbon pilot site. The pilot system aims at providing early warn¬ings of faecal contamination in recreational waters, derived from real-time data and contamination forecasts provided by the hydrodynamic-faecal contamination model of the Tagus es¬tuary forced by the Alcântara urban drainage model. This system helps utilities providing a faster response to pol¬lution events in recreational waters and dealing with more frequent and heavier rainfall caused by climate change. The platform has the potential for a wider application to other cities and other receiving water bodies.

Lyon The major challenge for the city of Lyon is the increased occurrence of extreme rainfall events and the need for better design, operation and modelling of the sewer systems to cope with flooding. To increase the city’s preparedness tools developed within PREPARED were demonstrated by the project partners Grand Lyon, INSA and DHI focusing on:
• a prototype software tool on i) the sen¬sors calibration and verification, ii) the evaluation of uncertainties and iii) off-line data validation (D 1.3.7)
• a real time integrated monitoring sys¬tem supporting improved rainfall mon¬itoring (D 1.3.9)
• sonar technique for sediment moni¬toring in sewers.

Demonstrating sediment monitor¬ing and modelling in Lyon
Together with operator Grand Lyon, the PREPARED partners demonstrated a sonar device for detection and meas¬urement of sedimentation (D 3.2.2). The objective was to evaluate the solid sediments in sewers and sedimentation basins in order to efficiently plan main¬tenance measures that can potentially decrease the risk of flooding in the city. The device tested consists of a generator delivering 220 V, a transformer (to 36 V). The transformer is linked to the sonar by a 20 m cable. The sonar is located on a float, which is submerged into the drainage system. The device was tested at four different locations. Although some practical difficulties needed to be overcome (20 m cable too short, difficulties of stabilization etc.), the operator was very satisfied with the monitoring tool as it gives more reliable results, with rapid data recovery than manual measurements. In addition, the staff security is enhanced. The opera¬tor can thus plan the maintenance of the sewers more efficiently and prevent flooding. Grand Lyon will further develop the equipment to facilitate routine measurements.

Oslo Along with a fast growing population and more impervious sur¬faces, climate change causes major challenges for the water sector of Oslo, such as the sustainable operation of the com¬bined sewer system, the increased hydraulic and variable peak loads on the wastewater treatment plants and the deteriora¬tion of water sources intended for drinking water production. To increase the city’s preparedness tools developed within PREPARED were demonstrated by the project partners SINTEF, Aquateam COWI and the Oslo water utility focusing on:
• Remedial actions to prevent adverse effects of regrowth in networks at higher temperatures (D 1.2.9)
• Demonstration of integrated real time control of sanita¬tion systems in Oslo (D 1.3.5)
• Increasing the capacity of a wastewater treatment plant in Oslo by process transitions during high flows (D 1.3.10)
• Water Cycle Safety Planning (D 1.4.4).

For example in D 1.3.10 it has been demonstrated that the capacity of a wastewater treatment plant in Oslo (mechanical, chemical and biological (activat¬ed sludge) treatment) can be increased during high flow events by introducing chemical precipitation in the primary settling tanks, to prevent discharge of untreated wastewater to the recipient. By treating surplus wastewater during heavy rain events just by chemical precipitation the overall removal efficiency (including the untreated overflows) increased from 19 % to 32 % (N-tot) and from 36 % to 85 % (P-tot). This option can be recommend¬ed for upgrading existing plants or for an optimized design of new sewage treatment plants.

Daily flow to Bekkelaget WWTP in demonstration period 5 (11/09/2012- 19/11/12) and treatment by the different operational modes (D 1.3.10).

Seattle Seattle RainWatch is an Information and Communications Technology (ICT) that was designed to help Seattle Public Utilities (SPU) better prepare for and respond to incidents of extreme precipitation and urban flooding. It provides key operators and decision makers with enhanced, targeted weather alerts that inform the management of resources and deployment of crews during weather events, acting in effect as an early warning system. After a successful fi rst year of use, RainWatch has proven insightful in unexpected ways and promises to advance existing efforts beyond flood response. This paper describes how RainWatch works as an early warning system and how it is used by SPU to enhance its operational adaptive capacity.
RainWatch is a real-time weather system that provides shortterm forecasts, or “nowcasts,” and rain accumulation totals for SPU. It uses rainfall estimates derived from National Weather Service radar data that are calibrated with real time data from a network of rain gauges owned and operated by SPU to improve accuracy over other precipitation estimate products. RainWatch provides alerts when accumulation and forecast thresholds are exceeded. Cliff Mass and the University of Washington’s Mesoscale Analysis and Forecasting Group developed RainWatch for SPU.
After significant urban flooding events in 2006 and 2007 SPU and the UW initiated discussions about nowcasting. RainWatch was then developed and tested through the 2009-2010 rainy season. RainWatch was delivered and went live for SPU in September 2010. The fi rst alert messages arrived in the inboxes of 22 employees across 3 City departments and 4 SPU branches on October 11th, 2010, and through June 2011 a total of 302 messages had been received, interpreted, and used to make – or not make – weather related decisions.
Prior to RainWatch, operators responded to urban flooding by reacting to customer calls and reports from crews in the field. Disparate weather forecasts and unfiltered radar imagery allowed for general advance preparedness, but only at a regional scale. RainWatch represents an improvement by providing operators with a tool that helps predict more specifically where impacts are likely occur and also helps monitor vulnerability. The essence of RainWatch is the 1-hour precipitation forecast. SPU worked to establish the appropriate thresholds at which the system would send text alerts and detailed images to key staff showing when, where, and how much rain is expected to fall (upper right). Another important feature of the system are web-based maps that display 1- to 48-hour rainfall accumulation totals city-wide. These continually refreshing images provide clues as to where system and soil saturation may lead to impacts, especially when paired with a forecast alert, The alerts and maps provide system operators with an early warning system that can help inform system operators about where real time responses should be prioritized to reduce potential impacts.
Over the course of its second year of use, enhancements to RainWatch were implemented and others envisioned. Improvements to regional NWS radar network (i.e. dual-polarization, additional coastal site) have allowed for testing of algorithms and the potential to in some cases extend the RainWatch’ warning capabilities by up to a few hours. Improved radar inputs combined with planned upgrades to SPU’s rain gauge network may also allow for testing of DWW performance enhancements, notably automating pump station modes through RainWatch alerts to reduce CSO events. Presently operators have the ability to manually change pumping to “storm” mode; however RainWatch would allow for more efficient management and reductions to SPU’s energy and maintenance costs.
Given the uncertain future of extreme precipitation in our region, RainWatch represents a “no regrets” climate adaptation strategy by improving operational response to extreme events today as well as in the future. Its rainfall accumulation feature is enhancing our understanding of neighborhood- or basinscale impacts. SPU is actively compiling a meteorological database of all extreme events on record that is helping illustrate the vulnerability of the varying basins within the city to differing rain events. The effort will be coupled with RainWatch to forecast rainfall in the medium range as well as predict impacts to SPU’s drainage and wastewater system, based on past system performance under similar conditions, and further enhance the deployment of appropriate operational responses to reduce those impacts. These potential enhancements in addition to planned changes to RainWatch, improved website functionality, and integration with other City of Seattle weather tools, would contribute to developing a new, local climatology as well as a dynamic and innovative component of SPU’s climate adaptation program.

Melbourne
Within the PREPARED project, an unique collaboration between Australian and European researchers is ongoing. This collaboration revolves around the development of a modelling tool for strategic planning of the urban water systems, known as Dynamic Adaptation for the eNabling of City Evolution for Water (DAnCE4Water). A long-standing research relationship between teams from Monash University and Innsbruck University brought together the distinct expertise necessary for this interdisciplinary project.
The DAnCE4Water is designed to be an aid for policy makers and strategic planners. Although models are abundant in the water sector, when faced with a long-term planning horizon and the complex interplay between socio-political dynamics and water infrastructure, the currently-available tools and decision-support tools are not applicable. DAnCE4Water aims to fill this void by combining new knowledge from the social sciences on how socio-technical systems evolve, with models of city developments and in particular water systems. The model is linked with the state of the art models widely used for water infrastructure assessments.
DAnCE4Water consists of a number of modules (technical/social transition) that work together to test scenarios for city and its urban water infrastructure. For example, we may be interested to test a scenario where in the future 70% of drainage needs will be met using green infrastructure, such as bioretantions, wetlands, infiltration systems, etc. Taking into account assumed future economical and societal conditions of the city, the Societal Transitions Module (STM) of DAnCE4Water, will project a number of plausible future development paths for the social system around urban water servicing. It will give an indication which technologies and institutional arrangements are likely to be implemented given the societal needs. The Urban Development Module (UDM) then will map the evolution of the city’s built environment over time. The Bio Physical Module (BPM) will place urban water infrastructure within the built environment, following planning regulation and codes of engineering design practice. This includes both centralised as well as decentralised systems. The BPM also provides links between DAnCE-4Water and state-of-the-art tools used in assessing the performance of this infrastructure, pertaining to reliability of water supply, flooding risks, and pollution risks, etc.
It is a fact that integrated models cannot predict the future, and DAnCE4Water is designed as an exploratory tool of possible futures; it generates not one, but a number of probable futures. In this way planners can assess the possibly un-thought of side effects of their strategic actions. DAnCE4Water should be used in a participatory setting, involving relevant stakeholders and to enable this, a methodology for participatory scenario developing has been developed with PREAPARED project. This was done in collaboration with an external research partner from the Dutch Research Institute for Transition (Drift) from Erasmus University in Rotterdam.
DAnCE4Water is currently at the stage of prototype testing. As a case study, stormwater management within a Melbourne catchment is used, that includes stormwater harvesting to augment water supply, management of polluted runoffs and flood mitigation. The development of DAnCE4Water has sparked vast interest and attracted significant funding, which will ensure that the tool will be further developed beyond the scope of the PREPARED project. This includes approximately € 1 million that a newly formed Australian Cooperative Research Centre for Water Sensitive Cities will invest in the tool.

Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water Within PREPARED an Adaption Planning Process (APP) has been designed to stimulate teams from water utilities to develop strategic action plans about how they can ensure that their activities and assets can become more adaptive to future challenges, while also complying with their organisation’s obligations and aspirations in a systematic way. The APP focused on supporting institutional adaptation as well as providing evidence to support the development, take-up and eventual deployment of new technologies and procedures. The APP delivered strategic action plans primarily identifying new ways of working together within an organisation and with key external stakeholders so as to address the challenges of future changes whilst dealing with uncertainty and adhering to their organisational values.
The Adaptation Planning Process included three stages an Aspiration Workshop which identifies current aspirations of how an organisation wishes to shape their activities in the future in the context of existing challenges, a Scenario Workshop which identifies potential future impacts of the agreed challenges, identifies responses to these impacts and evaluates their robustness against a number of plausible futures (scenarios), and a Roadmapping Workshop which plans a route forward to deliver the robust responses through the development of a strategic action plan. The action plan distinguishes short, medium and long term actions, describing a route to the delivery of the robust responses to current and future challenges via seizing opportunities wherever possible identified throughout the planning process.
In the early stages of the work, the research team investigated the development of a Framework to characterise an ‘adaptive utility’, and then how to translate the framework into an Audit Tool. The initial concept was for the Audit Tool to provide utilities with a ‘step-by-step protocol’ to assess to what degree they met the adaptive characteristics defined in the Framework. As the project developed, evidence gathered by the researchers and the staff at the partner water utility indicated that achieving a unique framework to characterise an adaptive utility would not be possible. Instead it was more likely that the Framework and Audit Tool would identify different ideas about being adaptive so rather than a generic tool, the researchers and practitioners agreed that the way in which a utility is able to adapt is very context specific so a modified approach was required. The aim of the APP process was to provide a space for the water utility to define a shared understanding of goals, opportunities, constraints and uncertainties and to develop consensus around delivery routes where these could be addressed and translated into action. Utility team are expected to use the APP (or similar) at regular intervals – for example, every five years – in order to reconsider current priorities and to check that current actions are fit for purpose.
Due to the highly collaborative activities leading to the Adaptation Planning Process and the allowance for flexibility to change and refine the APP as the work progressed, a more highly valued process was developed. The practitioners particularly valued the fact that the process was altered according to DCWW’s needs which resulted in the APP being a vehicle that they can use to aid adaptation planning in the utility. Further benefits from the APP include: the enabling of unconstrained and visionary thinking; the opportunity to challenge and transform current ways of working; the generation of action plans as a practical output to help direct where to go next; the allowance for structured interactions between different groups that does not normally happen; and the opportunity to identify what has already been done in different functions of the utility and how to communicate progress and learning to the wider organisation. All these activities experienced as a result of the APP contribute to the development of a more aware, reflective and hence more adaptive water and sanitation utility.

Work area 2: Risk Assessment and Risk Management
Significant results are:
• Development of generic risk management framework, the Water Cycle Safety Plan, supported by
• Development of a comprehensive WCSP protocol for the end-user, incorporating practical experience from the partner cities.
• Development of a Climate Change Hazard Database that can be used by others as a reference or checklists of climate change related hazards including their frequency and severity.
• Development of quantitative risk assessment models to describe risk event trees and to quantify social (including health), environmental and economic type risks.
• Development of a Risk Reduction Options database, including methodologies to determine cost-benefits (social, environmental, economic). This database gets input from WA3, WA4 and WA5.
• Development of tools allowing stakeholders to combine their GIS-data for RA/RM and effective communication.

Risk Assessment and Risk Management in the urban water cycle
The WCSP framework provides a framework for integrated risk assessment and risk management in the urban water cycle. The approach in broad terms is independent from existing efforts in the utilities, but the urban water cycle has been designed to deal with many of the risks. Over the years, and often ages, these systems have evolved and the stakeholders have had to work together to deal with risks. In this process, often the risks are not specifically assessed, an integrated view of systems is not incorporated and opportunities of collaboration to improve safety use of resources can be lost. The WCSP provides a framework to support decision based on priority estimated risks, to bring ongoing activities by the stakeholders to an integrated level, and to develop system safety plans in coordination by different utilities while maintaining important stakeholders aligned.
The WCSP allows for flexible implementation, adaptable to different organizations and proceeding with available information and resources. If certain risk aspects have already been dealt with in detail, they can be incorporated without the need to go over the same work again. It also allows the identification of specific needs for collecting data, the involvement of new stakeholders and the review when new requirements are put forward. Important added value is found in bringing the people together that hold knowledge so that together they can identify weak spots or missed issues, and evaluate risk and risk reduction measures using compatible decision criteria. The systematic WCSP approach and the provided tools stimulate a complete assessment of risks. Discussions on likelihood and consequences form the basis for a more balanced evaluation of risks and help to build risk management programs. The challenge in many project based organizations will be to maintain the integrated level of risk management ongoing after a first WCSP cycle has been completed.

The water cycle hazard safety plan provides an integrated risk management approach
Communication plans are a key element of WCSP, but in fact communication is key to all aspects of the WCSP process. Initially, communication between stakeholders needs to be open and non-political in order to develop an effective WCSP. Secondly, good and efficient communication between stakeholders and third parties during an event is crucial to prevent or reduce the effects of the event. Finally, communication to the community is crucial, not only during events, but also continuously. Especially since the UWS deals with rare events of one per ten or a hundred years, people are likely to forget that events can happen. People need to be aware that there is no risk-free society and that often costs of reducing risks increase as the risk decreases. The public has its own responsibility to deal with risks and awareness may drive towards smarter developments. For example, the areas in the Netherlands most vulnerable to flooding also hold the highest economic value in terms of business and assets. A better risk awareness might have led to different choices.
The WCSP is not a goal in itself. The goal is to have smart decisions in the design and management of urban water systems. The WCSP framework and related tools were developed to support these smart decisions. Although the framework promotes an integrated approach for the whole water cycle and all risks, a start can often be made by focusing on specific elements or issues most relevant. After building experience with the framework the work can then be expanded to other issues or elements. As the methodology becomes more familiar, the process becomes faster and more efficient.
Examples of GIS applications used to assess and manage climate change risks to the urban water cycle were collected in a GIS toolbox. The toolbox provides an overview of open source and commercial packages for GIS and how these can be used. These examples serve as an inspiration for applications in other cities and methodologies and routines can be applied elsewhere. It also provides guidance what GIS data is required en where and how this data can be obtained. The toolbox can be accessed thought the internet and is integrated in the WCSP website.

Work area 3 Toolbox for real time monitoring and modelling
Significant results are
• Sensors: testing, calibration and evaluation of uncertainties – new sensors or new ways to use existing water quality sensors have been tested, and high-level methods for sensors calibration and evaluation of uncertainties have been developed and implemented in a prototype software tool to ensure their effective applicability by end-users and the delivery of reliable data.
• Improved measurement and modelling of sediments in sewer systems – as sediments and sediment related problems in sewers and receiving bodies are expected to become more problematic, due to both climate change and water use modifications, better measurements and modelling of sewer sediments are necessary. The sonar technique performs well to monitor sewer sediments: this will clearly improve the management of sediments in urban water systems. Regarding sediment transport modelling, existing commercial software tools remains unsatisfactory and further research is needed.
• Data validation – as data validation is an absolutely fundamental issue for both RTC and off-line modelling and performance evaluation of UWS, high-level methods for on-line and off-line validation have been developed in software tools, accounting for uncertainties.
• Improved rainfall measurement – as a key element of the call text as it is a key element for urban water systems, in general and for forecasting in particular, methods have been either further developed (high resolution radar measurement) or explored (rainfall measurement by satellite data) to improve the knowledge on rainfall events in real time.
• Best location of sensors – new modelling methods have been developed to locate sensors at the most appropriate and informative locations in urban water systems, on both macro and micro levels, for both discharge and water quality measurements
• Modelling: calibration, uncertainty assessment, data assimilation – with a focus on an often neglected but critical issue for real application of models, i.e. significantly improving the use of existing models be providing easily applicable methods to evaluate modelling uncertainties.

Calculating measurement uncertainties in sewer system flows
Measurement of flow in sewer systems is a complex task considering the dynamic behaviour of what is to be measured and the effects resulting from non‐ideal conditions of operation. Flow is a quantity measured indirectly, usually obtained by the measurement of other quantities and applying mathematical models. When flow measurements are regularly used for managing sewer systems, performance of the measurement system and the quality of measurement results becomes critical both to daily operation and to decision making processes within the utility.
Different techniques can be adopted in order to measure flow in free surface conditions in sewers. One of the most common methods is the velocity‐area, usually using multi‐sensing flow meters comprising a combination of sensors for level and velocity measurement. These are often mounted in stainless steel rings or bands, fitted in the inner surface of sewer pipes. The flow can be calculated from measurement of different quantities, namely, level and velocity, by applying the continuity equation. The slope‐area methods are also sometimes used in conjunction with the velocity‐area method to ensure redundancy. In both cases, calculation of the flow involves the use of mathematical models in a multi‐stage system. In addition, these methods generally assume uniform flow conditions often difficult to ensure in actual measurement sites. In most of the measurement locations, mounting the instrumentation is made under adverse conditions, usually in places where flow performance can be strongly affected by the geometry of pipes and by irregularities in joints. Dragged objects and debris can also damage the instrumentation and sediment grease and oil accumulation can obstruct the sensors. These unpredictable events eventually identified during maintenance operations or data processing, can lead to significant measurement errors. However, incorporation of these effects as contributions to measurement uncertainty proves to be difficult. Thus, it is expected that the error sources are strongly dependent of local conditions at each measurement location, requiring local expertise and knowledge.
The measurement process is the act of assigning a value to some physical variable, by operating the sensors and instruments in conjunction with data acquisition and reduction procedures. In an ideal measurement, the value assigned by the measurement would be the actual value of the physical variable intended to be measured. However, measurement process and environmental errors bring in uncertainty in the correctness of the value resulting from the measurement. To give some measure of confidence to the measured value, measurement errors must be identified, and their probable effect on the result estimated. Uncertainty is simply an interval estimate of possible set of values for the error in the reported results of a measurement. The process of systematically quantifying error and uncertainties is known as uncertainty analysis (UA), which is a rigorous methodology combining statistical and engineering concepts. Monitoring of urban water processes should be governed by the ability of the measurements to achieve the specific objectives within the allowable uncertainties. Thus, measurement uncertainty assessment should be a key part of the entire monitoring programme: description of the measurements, determination of error sources, estimates of uncertainties and the documentation of the results. Uncertainty considerations need to be integrated in all phases of the monitoring process, including planning, design, the decision whether to measure or not with specific instruments and the carrying out of the measurements. In essence, this means that uncertainty must be considered even at the definition‐of‐objectives stage; the objectives should include a specification of the allowable uncertainty defined in relation to the planned use of measurement results.
Biases are usually very difficult to detect. Sensor calibration with links to primary or secondary standards is a way to identify, evaluate and remove (by correction) biases. However, sensor calibration qualifies the sensor itself and not necessarily its use in a given location under given conditions which may themselves be the source of additional bias. This aspect should be accounted for as much as possible, as even relatively small biases may have dramatic effects on the final results from monitoring programmes. If biases can be detected and assessed, they can be accounted for in the uncertainty assessment. In other cases, correct information on systematic errors is non‐existent or very weak, and estimations are not possible. An alternative method in this case may be to simulate scenarios, i.e. to simulate the effects of possible systematic errors on the final results, in order to answer questions like “what if…” (e.g. how would the discharge and its uncertainty change if the water level sensor had a bias of + 2 cm?). In all cases, investigation to identify and remove possible biases, even if it is difficult, is an important task to be carried out with the highest degree of rigor and intellectual honesty.
Frequently, instrumentation errors are the only ones dealt with in estimating uncertainties. This is unfortunate, because in many situations errors such as those induced by flow‐sensor interaction, flow characteristics, and measurement operation are frequently larger than the instrument errors. This is why, as much as possible, the location and conditions of use of sensors should be accounted for to evaluate the total resulting uncertainty. For example, a water level sensor may have an instrument uncertainty (evaluated by means of an adequate calibration with certified standards) of ± 1 mm. If this sensor is used in a sewer system where the water is not still and perfectly horizontal, but moves downstream and generates small waves at the surface with possible secondary currents, leading to a non‐horizontal free surface, the final uncertainty may reach ± 1 cm or more. Conceptual biases (i.e. errors that might stand between concept and measurement) are generated during the test design and data analysis through idealisations (assumptions) in the data interpretation equations, use of equations which are incomplete and do not acknowledge all the significant factors, or by not measuring the correct variable. Despite the potential importance of conceptual biases, and the challenging in assigning significance to what has been measured, this category of uncertainty is beyond the scope of this report and will not be further discussed.
Lastly, two important remarks should be to mentioned: i) uncertainties in measurements should be analysed jointly with uncertainties in modelling: both aspects are critical to improve the practice in urban water systems, and ii) it is absolutely essential that urban water systems are designed / retrofitted to facilitate measurements.

Example of discharge measured during a storm event (blue line) with its corresponding 95 % coverage interval determined by UA. Source: Jean-Luc Bertrand-Krajewski

WA 4 Integrated Real Time Monitoring and Management Systems
The significant results generated in the work area can be divided into two groups – one group containing the tools for the monitoring, modelling and control platform DIMS.CORE and a second group containing the implemented and running operative systems, which have been demonstrated at PREPARED utilities.
Tools for the monitoring, modelling and control platform
• Configurable real time data validation methods including immediate actions upon detection of a change in quality of the data generated by real or virtual sensors. The platform’s data validation capabilities has been extended to use off-line methods as well through an integration with the EVOHÉ tool developed in WA3 using data export/import methods for the time series to be validated.
• Real time monitoring using complex sensors including data handling of:
o Absorbance Spectra from the S::can Spectro:lyser for detection of changes in water quality and calibration to specific substances using calculations based on the full spectra or on extracted absorbance values from given wavelengths.
o Weather Radar Images for improved rainfall monitoring using a flexible conversion methodology from reflectivity images to rainfall intensity images followed by a bias adjustment based on rain gauge observations and ending up with an extraction of the Mean Area Rainfall intensity over a catchment from the adjusted intensity images.
• OpenMI interface which make the platform compliant with the OpenMI standard – any OpenMI compliant modeling tool can now share data with the platform. Two examples have been tested for sewer network modeling – one using the already OpenMI compliant modeling tool Mike-Urban and the other using an OpenMI “wrapped” version of the public domain tool SWMM.
• Design and use of software sensors. Software sensors can now be generated either in the platform’s On-line Host based on functions called from script libraries (calculated typically every minute or less) or in the platform’s Scheduling system (calculated typically every 5 minutes or more), where the software sensors based on real time modelling typically are located in the scheduling system.
• Data assimilation (DA) toolbox for the platform including the three most popular data assimilation techniques: extended Kalman filter, ensemble Kalman filter and Particle filter.
• Integration of an existing control strategy tool for sewer networks – DORA (Dynamic Overflow Risk Analysis) which is using a genetic algorithm to minimize the combined sewer overflow risk.
• Real time control strategies for wastewater treatment plants during rain has been improved to such an extent that the usual “bottleneck” of the hydraulic load – being the secondary clarifiers – now has moved to hydraulic capacity of inlet pumps, pre-treatment systems, pipes, etc.
• A configurable real time monitoring, modeling and control concept for combined sewer systems, where the real time control of the sewer system is divided into several layers:
o Layer 3: Global predictive control based on forecasts from a weather radar of rainfall over sub-catchments (every 5 minutes)
o Layer 2: Global control based on level and flow measurements within the combined sewer system (every minute)
o Layer 1: Local control based on level measurements (every second)
o Layer 0: Emergency control
Layered control structure: Certain demands to the system status (measurements and control handles available) have to be fulfilled in order to maintain the control at a certain layer; otherwise control will fall back to a lower layer. The desired operation during rain fall events is the top layer 3 with global predictive control. This requires all implemented systems and devices in full and error free operation. The layer 2 is also considered as a good and robust operation which will be used for some periods. The lower layer 1 and layer 0 are fall back layers which automatically will be used in case of technical problems. These layers are also used by manual selection when repair work and inspections will be done - typically during dry weather periods.

Implemented and running operative systems
• Improved rainfall monitoring using weather radar has been developed and tested at three sites. In Aarhus and Lyon based on the DHI Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) and in Seattle based on rainfall estimates derived from the National Weather Service radar data. The three systems have developed software for bias adjustment based on rain gauge observations and various other routines in order to improve rainfall estimates. The systems in Seattle (RainWatch) and in Aarhus will continue in normal operation after PREPARED producing “nowcast” and “forecast” rainfall intensity estimates.
• Based on a book keeping system for relevant daily information (like reservoir levels, water intake from rivers and aquifers, rainfall…) a decision support system for the competing uses of source water has been developed and tested. The system supports the daily management of Genoa’s water resources, backed by off-line optimization and simulation models of the system at a coarser time scale (month). Decision rules build upon 40 years of experience with the management of the resources.
• Four different approaches to on-line monitoring of water quality using new sensor technology have been developed and tested, including:
o A monitoring station for protection of water intake from surface water based on S::can technology (including the S:pectrolyser) has been installed at the Scrivia river close to Genoa. Data are communicated to the monitoring platform for detection of possible changes in water quality and alert of the operative staff.
o Monitoring stations for combined sewer overflows (inside the sewer and at the overflow structure) based on S::can technology (including the S:pectrolyser) has been installed at the Algés-Alcântara section of the Tagus estuary in Lisbon, and is now a part of the online monitoring network giving input to a warning system for faecal contamination of the receiving waters.
o Monitoring of the biomass accumulation velocity in distribution networks without chlorination based on a new Continuous Biofilm Monitor has been tested at different locations in Eindhoven in order to measure the biological stability and being a part of the concept for identification of “hot spots” for bacterial growth.
o Monitoring of residual chlorine in distribution networks with chlorination based on residual chlorine sensors has been tested in Lisbon as an indicator for the biological stability – the velocity of the decrease being an indicator for increased activity and thereby identify a “hot spot” for local boosting of the chlorination.
• An early warning system based on a bacterial growth model in the drinking water distribution system has been developed and tested for Eindhoven and Lisbon. The results from a calibrated and validated model predict the critical combinations of temperature and residence time, and thereby identify the actual “hot spots” in the distribution network indicating possible deteriorating water quality and a possible need for extra disinfection control by booster chlorination.
• Two different approaches for early warning systems for deteriorating water quality in receiving waters has been developed and are now running in an operative mode. Both have focus on faecal contamination - eg. EU Bathing Water Directive – from combined sewer overflows:
o At the Algés-Alcântara section of the Tagus estuary in Lisbon a web based pilot uses the above mentioned monitoring network to produce input for a sewer system model, which estimate/predicts the input from the CSO to a marine model
o For the coast along the bay of Aarhus a marine model receives the estimated/predicted input form the below described control system for the combined sewer system – some CSOs deliver directly - others via a river model calculating the input at the mouth of the river
• A real-time measuring and forecasting system for combined sewer systems has been developed and installed in the old city center of Gliwice. Input to the system is originating from six Nivus flow meters (flow, level, velocity, temperature), which are used for model calibration, real time rainfall from local rain gauges, short term forecasts of rainfall from the WRF model and dry weather flows are input to a combined sewer model based on SWMM. The model delivers predictions of the sewer system performance – flow, levels and flooding.
• An integrated real time monitoring, modeling and control system for wastewater treatment plants and combined sewer systems has been developed and implemented in Aarhus based on the system platform DIMS.CORE and the developed tools. The system has input from numerous level and flow measurements (also including two Nivus flow meters) and the LAWR weather radar. The integrated system is now running in normal mode and operated by the staff from Aarhus Water.

WA 5 Planning for resilient water supply and sanitation systems
The following summarizes the results:
• developed a decision support system (DSS) for planning complex urban water systems for regions under water stress,
• developed guidelines for design and operation of water abstraction wells in areas at risk of flooding,
• developed design and operational protocols for ASR wells,
• developed guidelines for taking into account climate change in urban runoff modelling and demonstrated the guidelines by modelling the impact of climate change on runoff at urban scale,
• investigated the storm water management in detail, including an analysis of the state of the art, the existing experiences and the needs from the users (cities),
• explored the existing techniques and technologies for sanitation system adaptation and developed tools for CSO impact assessment,
• developed a knowledge database as a tool to identify the weak links in operation and maintenance when considering the climate change effects on drinking water and wastewater pipe systems,
• made an assessment of the current treatment works at the partner cities (questionnaire and analysis) and proposed options to make these treatment works able to handle future climate change challenges,
• studied the effect of increased temperature on the biodegradable organic compounds on the biofilm formation, incorporation, persistence and re-growth in drinking water systems and looked at potential actions to adverse the re-growth potential,
• studied new concepts for CSO layout and made a modelling framework using CFD,
• looked at new concepts and best management practices for mitigation of sudden sea level rise on drainage system and demonstrated the concepts using a newly developed modelling framework (CFD),
• optimized operation of drinking water and wastewater systems including both treatment and distribution systems, and,
• developed technical guidelines for improved operation and maintenance of these (i.e. water supply, wastewater and stormwater) systems.

New water resources for Istanbul: rainwater harvesting and greywater management
Adequate water supply and sanitation is a major challenge for Istanbul, not only because it is a large city with a population of 13 million people but also because it is one of the most rapid growing cities in Europe. The Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (ISKI) is responsible for both clean water and wastewater services. ISKI operates a water network of 16,600 km that transports and distributes water from surface water reservoirs (max 910.2 million m3/year) and from groundwater sources (max 30 million m3/year). To cope with the growing demand water is now transported from the Black Sea Basin to the city of Istanbul over a distance of 180 km (recently completed Melen project). ISKI also operates a sewerage and rainwater network of approximately 13,600 km. To ascertain a more efficient management of the drinking water and wastewater infrastructure ISKI has developed an Infrastructure Information System called ISKABIS, based on GIS tools. ISKABIS also enables a more efficient protection of watersheds.
A number of developments in Istanbul put pressure on the utilities to look for alternative solutions and many plans have recently been developed to cope with the current water and wastewater management approach using mostly end of pipe treatment, increasing demand for water and the pressure of droughts/climate change on water resources. Under water stress and changing climatic conditions it is particularly important to have diversification of water sources including rainwater harvesting and wastewater reuse. Rainwater usage has been suggested to promote potable water savings and ease water availability problems. Studies show that depending on the geographic region, rainwater harvesting has a significant potential for the residential environment. This may include use of treated wastewater for purposes that do not require drinking water quality, for instance, watering urban greens and landscaping. For the situation in Istanbul it has been calculated that it is potentially possible to cover 67% of water demand for toilet flushing by rainwater and treated greywater. The rainwater and greywater as potential alternative water resources correspond to about 21% of the overall water consumption.
Within PREPARED, a pilot plant on rainwater and greywater reuse systems has been implemented in TUBITAK MRC Campus and the outcomes have been tested conceptually in a selected case study area in Istanbul. The experience and knowledge from this pilot within the PREPARED project has been made available to other city utilities. The outcomes of the study provides a base for technical information on greywater and rainwater utilization, applicable monitoring implementation practices for cities which will presumably suffer from climate change impacts and water stress. Furthermore, the results constitutes a tool for technical personnel, decision makers, planners, water utilities, consumers, and various stakeholders such as treatment equipment manufacturers.

A planning instrument for CSO control under conditions of climate change in Berlin
One of the major water-related problems in urban areas is an insufficient capacity to cope with frequent spills of combined sewer overflows (CSO) affecting the quality of receiving water bodies. In Berlin, the combined sewer system covers a drained area of approx. 100 km² (25% of the total drained area of Berlin) and collects wastewater of 1.5 million inhabitants. In case of intense rainfall, a mix of stormwater and mostly untreated sewage (ratio of ~ 1:13) is discharged via 179 CSO outlets becoming an important source of pollution for the receiving River Spree. The most severe impacts of CSO in the Berlin River Spree, a regulated low-land river with an average discharge of 27.6 m³/s and flow velocities between 6 and 24 cm/s, are depressions in dissolved oxygen (DO) due to the inflow of degradable organic matter. According to continuous measurements from 2004 to 2012, emission based quality standards are violated on 58 days per year within a river stretch highly influenced by CSO. Further aggravation of ecological deficits can be expected from global climate change (changes in rainfall intensity, temperature increase) which may not only lead to more frequent CSO events but also increase the vulnerability of the ecosystem.
To support decision makers in assessing CSO impacts under future climate change conditions and finding appropriate management strategies, a flexible planning instrument is established and demonstrated within PREPARED. For the application of the planning instrument, expected climate change effects and realistic CSO management options need to be translated into model boundary conditions and run with the model tool. Scenarios can then be compared in terms of their relative improvement of critical parameters. If the chosen scenarios do not meet political goals new management scenarios can be defined and run with the model tool. A planning instrument following the above presented approach can be established for any kind of urban drainage system, water body type or expected CSO impact. However, sewer and river models as well as impact assessment guidelines should be selected and adapted with regard to the properties and requirements of the study site. The model tool established for the planning of CSO control strategies in Berlin couples:
• The commercial sewer model InfoWorks CS which simulates volumes and pollutant loads of CSO,
• The river water quality model QSim developed at the German Federal Institute for Hydraulics which simulates the effects of CSO on hydraulics and water quality in the Berlin River Spree and
• An impact assessment approach which quantifies i) suboptimal DO conditions often associated with background pollution effects and based on the concentration-duration-thresholds proposed by Lammersen and ii) highly critical DO conditions due to CSO based on the lethal concentration of the most sensitive local fish species (2 mg DO/L for 30 minutes).
To provide a semi-automatic and standardized evaluation of model results, a database application for CSO impact assessment has been developed for the Berlin case study. The application provides a graphical interface allowing the user to assess different DO time series simulated for various river stations and a specific scenario. The chosen time series are then analyzed by successively comparing them to the quality standards described above. Results are provided in terms of tables and graphs, displaying the number of events and calendar days with adverse conditions in the River Spree. The presented planning instrument has been extensively tested for different climate change and CSO management scenarios. It will now be delivered to the end-users from the local water utility (BWB), the environmental authority (SenStadtUm) and an engineering consultant who can apply the tool for the planning of specific CSO control strategies.

Work Area 6 Enabling Change Significant results are:
• Development of a framework characterising the current best knowledge and practice about the physical and institutional characteristics of an Adaptive Water Sensitive City (AWSC)
• Development and application of an audit process to evaluate where cities fit with the AWSC framework
• Concluded and refined the framework for wider application to other case study cities
• Development of a Virtual Urban Water Systems software for testing many possible scenarios for realisation of AWSCs within the context of both socio-economic and physical drivers. The tool comprises of (i) the ‘Basic Engine’ that can simulate a large number of realisations of traditional water supply and sanitation systems for a given city, (ii) a Water Sensitive Urban Design, ‘WSUD Generator’ that simulates decentralised systems, and (iii) a ‘Socio-Economic Impact generator’ that simulates impacts of socio-economic scenarios on urban water system realisations.
• Development and application and evaluation of action plans to increase the adaptivity and resilience of water and sanitation systems of partner cities
• Exploration of the circumstances and the (human and other) resources needed to increase adaptivity in the partner cities;
Urban Water Systems are dominated by large assets, many of which have design lives of several decades. It is anticipated that many of the impacts of climate change will only become apparent after many years. Therefore, any project which considers how such infrastructure systems are affected by the anticipated impacts of climate change must be able to consider the future in a logical and structured way. There are a number of ways in which researchers, technologists and managers can identify and address issues that may have a significant impact far into the future.
Climate change impacts create fundamental uncertainties for the water sector, complex non-linear changes to climatic system inputs are coupled with existing uncertainties about service expectations and policy responses. There is widespread agreement that traditional risk management approaches, based on linear prediction, control, using assumptions of a stationary climate, and the optimisation of systems, are not adequate to address these challenges. In order to be prepared for climate change, water utilities need to be adaptable so that as knowledge develops, decisions can be reconsidered and investments adjusted to ensure services continue at an appropriate level. ‘Adaptive’ approaches to management have been developed to work within such uncertain systems. The fundamental characteristic of adaptive approaches is that they work through collective experimentation and learning. Importantly, information about the system is sought from a range of sources including monitoring and working with external stakeholders and this needs to be considered and strategies developed, plan implemented reviewed and actions adjusted.
The PREPARED project has sought to identify tools and processes to support water utilities in becoming more adaptive to climate change. This work was focussed on two complimentary approaches one resulted in the development of adaptive planning process, the other resulted in the development of complex modelling tools combined with a scenario based workshop programme. Each approach was developed with, and validated at the partner water utilities (DCWW and Melbourne Water). It allowed them to explore the future and enhance their capability to produce more adaptive water systems to cope with a range of uncertain futures.
The first approach draws on a ‘frame-reflective approach’ to analyse how tensions and overlaps between diverse values, interests and ideas play out in practice. A ‘frame’ can be understood as ‘sets of taken for granted assumptions’ about the world or a way in ‘which humans give meaning to a certain problem situation’. Underpinned by in-depth interviews with DCWW employees and their partner organisations and reviews of key water management documents four frames were identified. These frames, referred to as market; environment; people of wales; and technocracy illustrate contrasting ways in which water management actions were aspired for, discussed, justified and planned in Wales. The frames have illustrated that one single shared framing of adaptive water management does not exist in water utility organisations.
In validation workshops DCWW employees and representatives from other organisation such as Natural Resources Wales and Welsh Government suggested that this research provided new insights and perspectives for their organisation and day-to-day practices. It was clear that a systematic approach is needed in which different ideas of climate change adaptation can be considered, in relation to a number of plausible futures, with a clear route for taking action. A series of interrelated workshops were developed and eventually referred to as the Adaptation Planning Process (APP). The developed Adaptation Planning Process involved three stages. an Aspiration Workshop which identified the current aspirations of how an organisation seeks to shape current and future activities in the context of existing challenges. A Scenario Workshop which considered potential future impacts of the challenges, identifies responses to these impacts and evaluates their robustness against a number of plausible futures (scenarios) and finally a Roadmapping Workshop which delivered a route forward to transform the identified robust responses into action through the development of a strategic action plan. The action plan differentiates short, medium and long term actions and describes a route to ensure the delivery of the robust responses to address current and future challenges.

Instead of assuming that a single vision based on shared interests about the ‘best’ state, the APP supports a reflective process in allowing for multiple visions, aspirations, priorities and futures to be considered. The approach achieved a balance between on the one hand opening up debate about aspirations and futures but at the same time managing the differences so that the end point is an implementable action plan. The APP has been developed and piloted with the Asset Strategy & Planning team at DCWW and at the water utility in Gliwice.
The second approach again recognised that climate change, urban development and societal changes are strong drivers to investigate possible transition pathways from existing (technocratic) urban water management solutions towards novel (predominantly) decentralized water systems. To deepen our understanding at city scale, and to identify possible transition strategies, new analysis tools were developed. This included new software based tools and workshops based learning materials to allow all stakeholders to acquire the adaptive capacity needed to manage urban water infrastructure. The development of the software tool was an interdisciplinary collaboration between Monash University, Melbourne Water Corporation and the University of Innsbruck. The development of a virtual urban water system software tool integrates knowledge from social sciences, city development dynamics, tradition centralized engineering infrastructure and water sensitive urban design (WSUD), The tool “Dynamic Adaptation for eNabling City Evolution for Water“ (DAnCE4Water) embodied the synergies between social, urban and water systems modelling. DAnCE4Water provides decision-support to urban planners, government, catchment managers, water utilities and local councils. It enabled a wide variety of stakeholders to explore possible future scenarios and consequences of different policies, technological interventions in the context of likely city development pathways. It enabled stakeholders to explore possible future scenarios and consequences of policies and action strategies on the development of urban water infrastructure for supply, drainage and sewage. What-if scenarios for the urban water system can be investigated in a dynamically evolving environment, which considers the interactions between urban water infrastructure, urban environment and the societal system in space and time. Users can thus identify sustainable and reliable adaptation strategies for the urban water system.
DAnCE4Water has three key modules to simulate the urban system and its future development. The modules are (i) the urban development module (UDM) to evolve the urban environment, (ii) the biophysical module (BPM) to generate the urban water infrastructure and assess the performance and (iii) a societal transition module (STM) to explore the societal system. The model has also the Conductor that manages the flow of information between the input/output interface and the modules. Each module simulates how external drivers, such as climate change, urban development, and societal changes, impact on the development of urban water system. These external drivers (climate and demographic change, etc.), as well as the hypotheses that are tested (e.g. adaptation strategies) are defined in a Scenario. Scenarios for future system developments form the key inputs that drive the system dynamics. Scenarios of development plans (e.g. urban growth patterns, demographic projections), contextual trends (e.g. climatic, social, economic, political), societal needs (e.g. water security, flood protection, ecosystem protection, urban amenity) and policy experiments (e.g. options for strategic action) are quantified as functions of time and defined by the user as model inputs.
The scenarios are fed into the Conductor by the Scenario input module. The Conductor orchestrates the simulation and evolves the urban water system into the future. The simulation time step is determined by the underlying modules but is at least in annual increments. The results are fed into the Conductor and are presented to the user with the reporting and presentation module. A user interface provides a visual depiction of the case study being investigated and information can be readily accessed. The interface plays an important role in facilitating round table discussion in a participatory planning and modelling exercise involving the software. The graphical user interface is built on top of the simulation core. The user interface provides a simple way for the initialisation of the conductor to set parameters and to run and investigate simulations. The rationale of the work is given by the fact that the mixture of existing centralised and novel decentralised systems causes complex interactions within the urban water system. The output therefore demonstrate the interactions on a city scale, and help to build understanding and so identify possible effective transition strategies. DAnCE4Water embodies the synergies between social, urban and water systems modelling. This software is a decision-support tool for urban planners, government, watershed managers, water utilities and local councils. DAnCE4Water has been successfully applied in an urban planning context within PREPARED in catchments within Melbourne and Innsbruck.
This work area of the PREPARED project has sought to develop a range tools and approaches to support water utilities in becoming more adaptive to climate change. We have addressed this great challenge by providing an in-depth understanding of what adaptation means in different contexts within organisations. We have also developed tools based on the concept of strong interactions between social and technical systems and enabled these differences to be highlighted and explicitly debated within those organisations. This has enabled these organisations to better understanding these interactions in the context of an uncertain future and help develop more adaptive strategies to cope with potential impacts from climate change.

Potential Impact:
Introduction
Global trends that impact on water supply and sanitation in large cities are the expected population growth and urbanisation where according to the United Nations (2012) the number of people on our planet will grow to 9.3 billion. This growth will also result in a dramatic increase in the number of people in urban and peri-urban areas. Related challenges are the increased stress on the environment, health risks of inadequate sanitation and waste management, increase in paved areas (soil-sealing) and escalating needs for food, water supply, sanitation and drainage and infrastructure. In addition to population growth and urbanisation are the challenges posed by climate change such as: wet areas getting even more wet and dry areas getting even drier, more severe and more frequent extreme weather events such as storms, floods and droughts, erosion and desertification, sea level rise causing flood risk to coastal cities and intrusion of brackish water.
In the past 30 years (1976-2006) drought events had a cost of 100 billion Euro to the European economy and the number of European river basins under water scarcity are expected to increase by up to 50% by 2030 (source: Prof Riku Vahala adapted from A.Klobut 2013).
The PREPARED project concerned the protection of drinking water from the effects of climate change and extreme events, the use of alternative water resources e.g. the integration of rainwater/stormwater into the water cycle as supplementary resource, the protection of the population against flooding, the protection of buildings and infrastructure from damage, the protection of receiving waters from pollution through better management of the sewer and drainage systems and the mitigation of combined sewer overflows and the subsequent protection of water bodies.
Also higher temperatures and severe droughts, followed by heavy rainfall, were thought to result in the flushing to the water reservoirs. This could cause significantly change the raw water quality with negative impact on the water treatment plants and water supply networks. More frequent, more rapid and more severe raw water quality depreciation events caused by heavy rain incidents were expected, and could lead to water-borne disease outbreaks. Drinking water treatment plants must cope with more frequent and rapid quality changes, and the hygienic multi barriers system will be challenged. Besides, was considered that most waterborne disease outbreaks are associated to extreme precipitation events and/or lack of adaptation of water supply systems to such events.
Several cities in PREPARED anticipated future water shortages due to the worsening supply/demand balance which, in turn, resulted from generally dryer and hotter climate, longer drought periods and multinational competition for water resources. PREPARED explored in how far increased surface storage capacity and inter-basin transfers as well as aquifer storage could improve the supply reliability, together with alternative water sources or water efficiency measures
Longer dry periods result in more sediments in wastewater networks and higher flushing rates during rainfall events. It is very important to keep the wastewater network clean to safeguard the hydraulic transport capacity and avoid clogging, and thus minimize pollution discharge during extreme runoff events.
In many EU countries risks associated with water management are recognized as significant at the national level. In the UK, for example, flooding is now seen to be one of the highest risks in terms of both likelihood of occurrence and the impact. If we are to respond to such significant risks in an affordable and effective way, there is a need to take a different approach especially to cope with the challenges of climate change and its effect on water supply and sanitation systems in urban and peri-urban areas

Potential impacts of PREPARED in addressing societal challenges related by changes in climate
Demand and supply of water are better balanced by closing water cycles and re-using water, the use of alternative water resources and the management of the demand for water.
The environmental impact of the water sector is reduced by resource-efficient management, control of pollution and reducing emissions to receiving water bodies e.g. by avoiding and reducing combined sewer overflows.
The quality and security of water is ensured by assessing and managing risks at all levels in the urban water cycle (WCSP) and by reducing and managing chemical and microbiological pollution. In addition water quality is monitored comprehensively using rapid and on-line analytical tools.
The operation of waste water treatment plants and sewer and stormwater systems through process control and real time monitoring and real time control systems results in optimal use of existing infrastructure, better discharge quality and less frequent CSO’s. This has beneficial effects on the receiving surface water bodies.
Assets are managed in a cost-efficient way through optimal operation of the WWTPs and sewer systems.
The urban water cycle is managed in an integrated way through better understanding of the impacts and interactions of all water-related activities, decision support systems, on-line monitoring, early warning systems, better communication and community involvement, more extensive use of aquifer storage and recovery.
An adaptive approach was thought to be essential if responding to climate change effects on local systems is to be affordable and practicable. Many assets in the water supply and sanitation sector have a life of many decades and so some sort of ‘stationarity’ may be assumed, provided the risks and uncertainties in this are explicitly addressed. Whilst this is appropriate for new systems, the huge value of existing water supply and sanitation systems means that ways will also need to be found to adapt these as well. As part of this approach, new performance standards had to be defined as well as methods to plan interventions that are incremental over time as knowledge advances.

How do these impacts help and address the societal challenges and the benefits for the European citizens?
• Areas that suffer from droughts and water shortages experience periods with restrictions in water use when competing demands have to be balanced. This impacts on the population and the economy of these areas, as it affects industry, agriculture and tourism. Better management of the available water resources, storage of water in times of abundance and the use of alternative water resources all help to mitigating these impacts.
• Extreme rainfall events become more frequent and are not only causing threats to humans and livestock (e.g. flood victims, but also higher incidence of water-borne diseases), they also cause serious damage to structures and property and have a high economic and financial impact. Mitigation of the impacts of extreme rainfall events through better predictions (radar and satellite data), combined with optimal operation of the stormwater and sewerage systems (monitoring and sensor technology) will have significant beneficial effects.
• Better operation of the infrastructure and the WWTPs results in less combined sewer overflows and a higher quality water in the urban environment. In some of the PREPARED cities this has resulted in bathing water quality of surface water for the population to enjoy and a better quality of the environment.
• Risk assessment and risk management strategies within urban areas (WCSP) will bring all water players in specific areas together. This has proven to result in better understanding of each other’s work and problems and has resulted in more efficient and cost saving management of the water cycle.
• The city/utilities played a key role in the project by steering the research groups towards the development of applicable, relevant, and cost effective solutions. Also by locally demonstrating and implementing the outcomes of the research activity, and actively making their gained experiences available to other communities and to policy makers and decision makers. This not only increased the knowledge level at the utilities but also made them part of a European network that can also be used in the future.
• One of the key deliverables is the catalogue of adaptation measures produced by the PREPARED utilities that is available as an open-source deliverable for other utilities to use.
• Decision-makers in the water sector need to balance risk and cost in an uncertain environment driven by climate change. Both investments and risk mitigation measures directly impact on the population. The new concept of incremental interventions rather than building large new structures that would last many decades required the development of the concept of ‘active learning’ on the part of decision makers as new knowledge on how these systems will perform under changed climatic and socio-economic conditions becomes available. In the end it will be the citizens that will benefit from this new concept that will make the level of risk acceptable and the related cost manageable.
• The creation of PREPARED water-sensitive cities where water is included as essential part of the spatial planning does not only help the management of urban water it also creates a more attractive environment and adds to citizens well-being. In addition water in cities mitigates heat stress caused by increased average temperatures.
• Wide application and exploitation of PREPARED outcomes and deliverables by utilities all over Europe will alleviate social injustice caused by climate change. After all it is normally the vulnerable groups in society that suffer most from climate change and have the least means to protect themselves against the impacts of heat stress, extreme cold, flooding, droughts, as they often live in poor housing conditions and cannot afford high insurance fees or have the resources to recover quickly from climate change impacts. Vulnerable groups as e.g. the poor, the elderly and ill people suffer the most from climate change while in general they are contribution relatively little to cause climate change. We hope that the results of PREPARED and the technologies and solutions we have provided will help and protect those that need it most.
Dissemination activities and exploitation of results
The dissemination activities of the project were based on the Advocacy Strategy that was produced as guidance document at the start of the project and was updated during the project period. All European cities in the project were visited individually to discuss local and national dissemination strategies (mostly with the PR departments of the participating city utilities).

PR for the PREPARED conference in Aarhus
In principle we produced as little material on paper as possible (except from the initial brochure). At occasions a few examples of PR material were printed and put on show. Interested public was advised to go to the website to find the material.
The first series of PR material consisted of the project brochure at the start of the project and a more comprehensive brochure later on in the project featuring short summaries promoting the activities in each of the PREPARED cities.
Very early on the project the PREPARED website was launched and continuously updated during the project. www.PREPARED-FP7.eu .
For the use at fairs, conferences and exhibitions large posters on the project and on each of the project cities were produced. During the four years of the project three version of the posters were produced to make them up to date.
Poster booklets were made and put on the website, bringing together all posters (different updates).

In the period of four years eight PREPARED newsletters were produced and distributed through the website. The newsletters were produced to create awareness about the project and its activities amongst the interested public and stakeholder groups. Each newsletter highlighted a city, key research results and a young professional working on the PREPARED project in one of the cities.
Two large conferences were organised were organised where the project and interim results were presented to the European water sector. The first conference was in Dublin Ireland and the second one in Aarhus, Denmark. Conference proceedings were produced of these conference and all presentations were made available through the project website.
A workshop specifically targeting the Black Sea countries was held during the IWA cities of the future conference in Istanbul, Turkey in 2013. PREPARED was also presented at the IWA Cities of the future in 2011 in Istanbul, Turkey.
Invitations to present the project came from various countries such as Cyprus, Sweden, Belgium session on climate change organised by a Member of the European Parliament.
All partner organisations in PREPARED used opportunities and targeted invitations to present the PREPARED project through oral presentations, poster session, information stands and the brochure. An important presentation was at the IWA World Water Congress and Exhibition in Busan, Korea in 2012.
Various scientific and more popular papers were produced end published on the project or specific parts of the project.

Additional dissemination and exploitation activities worthwhile mentioning are:
- The production of a book on the outcomes of PREPARED to be published by IWA in autumn 2014;
- To better inform the general public a series of 12 short videos was produced that highlight the climate change related challenges in each of the cities, the solutions PREPARED produced and the benefits this had for the city involved. All videos are available on the website and on youtube;
- Within the project a city branding tool was developed to produce a quickscan of the preparedness of a city with respect to the impacts of climate change. The tool was developed and tested in three cities and will be further improved and developed after the completion of the project.

Example of city preparedness spider web
Exploitation and further development of the city preparedness branding tool (based on the city blueprint concept) is one of the examples of results that will be further exploited. Another example is the Water Cycle Safety Plan (based on the water safety plan concept) that proved to be very successful for application in areas for the better alignment and cooperation of the various players in a local water cycle. The systematic framework to identify potential risks in the water cycle and to best address and mitigate these risks did not only result in more efficient operation of the various segments of the water cycle it also created more understanding between various players as water supply companies, water boards and local governments. This resulted in better cooperation and again more efficient working conditions.
The catalogue of adaptation measures produced and mentioned earlier on will very rapidly use its value when not regularly updated and further improved. This is another outcome of the project we would like to exploit further.

List of Websites:

http://www.prepared-fp7.eu

Adriana Hulsmann, Coordinator, +31 30 60 69 654

Final Report Summary - PREPARED (PREPARED “ENABLING CHANGE”)

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