Final Report Summary - COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles: forecasting the space weather impact) Executive Summary:Space weather, driven by the Sun’s magnetic activity, is observed as severe disturbances of the upper atmosphere and the near-Earth space environment. Ensuring state-of-the-art space weather prediction capabilities is two-sided, meaning, that both the basic science behind the phenomena that pose problems to society must be understood and the needs of those affected by space weather must be clearly identified. Bearing this in mind the three-year EU FP7 COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles: forecasting the space weather impact) collaborative project performed basic science and went from research to operations by building an operational space weather alert system.Basic research was performed on two topics: 1.) 3D kinematics and interplanetary propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that can cause geomagnetic storms that are temporary disturbances in the Earth’s magnetosphere. 2.) Sources and propagation of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) that are associated with solar flares and/or shock waves driven by CMEs, and cause SEP radiation storms. The scientific results were used for developing and optimising models and forecasting methods. During the project, tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and SEP radiation storms were developed, validated and implemented into the COMESEP Alert System that runs without human intervention. Solar phenomena such as CMEs and solar flares are used to trigger the system. After the automatic detection in solar data of any of these transients, the different modules of the system communicate with each other in order to exchange information and produce forecasts. Overall the system produces a series of coherent alerts that are then displayed online and disseminated through email. The COMESEP Alert System was launched in November 2013 and provides space weather stakeholders with the following services:• Geomagnetic storm alerts (“Event based” and “Next 24 hours”).• SEP (proton) storm alerts (E > 10 MeV and E > 60 MeV).To achieve this the system relies on both models and data, the latter including near real-time data as well as historical data. Geomagnetic and SEP radiation storm alerts are based on the COMESEP definition of risk. Receiving COMESEP Alerts is free of charge, but registration is required via the COMESEP website (http://www.comesep.eu/). Project Context and Objectives:Modern society has become dependent on the usage of satellites and ground-based technologies, such as large, complex electrical grids. In parallel, technology development in satellite manufacturing such as “miniaturisation” of micro-electronics, has advanced to such a level that what has been gained in decreased size and weight is sometimes instead lost to increased vulnerability to the space environment. Indeed, the unexpected and hazardous effects that the dynamic space environment can have on humans and technology, better known as “space weather”, is a global problem that affects everybody, either directly or indirectly. The solar corona is a very dynamic region and the source of many phenomena related to magnetic energy releases in a large range of spatial and temporal scales. The approximate 11 year solar cycle alternates between solar minimum where quiet conditions prevail and solar maximum characterized by high levels of solar activity. During solar maximum phenomena such as solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) frequently manifest themselves and are accompanied by explosive release of mass, magnetic flux and energetic particles. To better understand and mitigate against some of the most important hazards associated with these solar events, the COMESEP project was defined with the aim to build an automatic start-to-end alert system. The background behind the COMESEP project is directly linked to the potential hazards that space weather poses to assets both in space and on Earth. COMESEP specifically concerns the risks/ impacts of two types of space weather storms:• Geomagnetic Storms: Temporary disturbances in the Earth’s magnetosphere caused mainly by solar wind disturbances associated primarily with Earth-bound interplanetary CMEs and to a smaller extent by Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) that are caused by the solar wind high-speed streams originating in equatorial coronal holes.• Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) radiation storms: Associated with solar flares and/or the shock waves driven by CMEs. They are mainly comprised of protons, electrons, and α-particles with small admixtures of 3He-nuclei and heavier ions up to iron. The energies of these accelerated particles range from keV to GeV.Both types of storms may result in unwanted effects on technological systems in space that include global positioning and navigation systems using satellites, Earth monitoring satellites, scientific satellite missions, radio communications, geomagnetic surveys, and on ground (electrical networks for power transmission and pipelines). Furthermore, SEP radiation storms are a concern for human space exploration. Solar flares and CMEs are often related, but one does not automatically cause the other. This has important implications for understanding and predicting when these storms will occur and whether they will affect Earth’s environment.The goal of space weather forecasting, going from science to operations, is to obtain reliable results for the needs of Users affected by space weather. To provide state-of-the-art prediction capabilities it must be ensured that the basic science behind the phenomena being studied is clearly understood and that the User requirements are identified. COMESEP followed these guidelines while defining its overall objectives that are summarised here:1. Combine basic research on space weather events with the development of an European space weather alert system.2. Optimise models and forecasting methods based on obtained scientific results.3. Link the derived SEPs and interplanetary CMEs forecast tools with real-time automated detection of CMEs as they appear when observed at the Sun.4. Integrate individual detection tools and models into an automated “start-to-end service” system.5. Disseminate SEP radiation storm and geomagnetic storm alerts to the space weather community.In summary, the overall objective of COMESEP has been to provide stakeholders with geomagnetic and SEP radiation storm alerts based on the automated detection of solar activity and modelling of the evolution of the interplanetary CMEs and SEPs. Contrary to space weather forecasting models that are computationally intensive (e.g. magnetohydrodynamics models), COMESEP has applied a more realistic approach for real-time forecasting, by employing a combination of analytical models and data, the latter including historical and near real-time. The COMESEP Alert System consists of several interconnected tools that work together to analyse data and automatically provide alerts for geomagnetic storms and SEP radiation storms based on the COMESEP definition of risk.Project Results:The project consisted of three stages: 1.) going from basic science, 2.) through model optimisation, 3.) to arrive at the final alert system. The main objectives of the three stages are given here.Stage 1. Basic ScienceThe first stage of the project focussed on basic science including data analysis and modelling. The objectives were to enhance our understanding of the:• 3-dimensional kinematics and interplanetary propagation of CMEs. For this purpose the structure, propagation and evolution of CMEs were investigated. Analytical and numerical interplanetary CME propagation models were tested and compared.• sources, acceleration processes, as well as propagation of SEPs. Advanced SEP modelling to include cross-field diffusion and heavy ions was investigated.• space weather impact. By analysis of historical data, complemented by the extensive data coverage of solar cycle 23, the key ingredients that lead to geomagnetic storms and SEP radiation storms and the factors that are responsible for false alarms were identified. The impact of the various observables that can be used for SEP and geomagnetic storm prediction were quantified.Stage 2. Model OptimisationThe development of forecasting methods was performed for predicting the arrival time of Interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) to Earth, as well as SEP radiation storms. For this purpose models describing the propagation of ICMEs and SEPs for space weather forecasting were optimised in the second stage of the project. Additionally, different solar wind models to optimise background solar wind parameters were tested. Stage 3. Alert SystemDuring the final stage of the project the COMESEP Alert System was constructed and made available to the community. During this process tools that were integrated in the system were built and validated.In the following a more detailed description of the various achievements are given.STAGE 1. BASIC SCIENCE***Coronal Mass EjectionsA collection of relevant in-situ magnetic field (Ace, Cassini, Messenger, Near, STEREO A&B, Ulysses, Venus Express) and plasma data (proton density, proton velocity, proton temperature) from Ulysses and STEREO, Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) solar wind proxy data, as well as lists of related space weather events were compiled. One of the central issues of the COMESEP project was forecasting the ICME arrival at Earth or at any other target in the heliosphere. For this purpose the analytical Drag-Based Model (DBM) was used. It provides predictions of when an ICME will arrive at a given “target”. The basic form of the model was formulated by Vršnak & Žic (2007) and was advanced and adjusted for COMESEP by Vršnak et al. (2012).By investigating the azimuthal properties of an ICME event probed by multiple spacecraft Möstl et al. (2012) revealed information about a shock structure changing as a function of solar longitude, which is important for SEP production. This cross-disciplinary result benefits both CME and SEP research. On their way through the heliosphere, ICMEs can interact with CIRs and other ICMEs and form complex magnetoplasmatic structures. Such interactions occur frequently around the solar cycle maximum, when several CMEs can be launched within one day from the same source region. Usually, these complex structures contain an enhanced southward magnetic field component, which is a key factor in generating geomagnetic storms.The most important scientific results are: • Much better understanding of and insight into the:- Evolution of ICME 3-D geometry.- Physical background of ICME-ICME interactions (Liu et al. 2013) and the role of variable solar wind in ICME kinematics.- Evolution of the ICME size, magnetic field strength, and electric current during the heliospheric propagation.- Solar cycle dependence of the ICME dynamics.• Found a way to include the shock arrival prediction into the DBM and the effect of source region position in the forecasting.***Solar Energetic ParticlesA database of SEP events (event lists) and associated data was built covering a wide range of energies and a large variety of species. The COMESEP SEP event list at L1 covering the SOHO era from 1997 to 2006 was built using the SEPEM reference proton event list (http://dev.sepem.oma.be) and includes events based on the SEP (> 25 MeV) proton event list in Cane et al. (2010). SEP sub-events occurring during a SEPEM SEP event were reported if they could be identified with > 25 MeV events in the Cane et al., 2010 list. The Task 3.1 list at L1 also includes solar event (solar flares and CMEs) as well as Type II/III radio burst associations with the SEP events selected. The latter associations were based on an extended literature survey and/or the Solar-Geophysical Data (SGD) reports (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/solar/sgd.html).Data from near-Earth spacecraft (e.g. GOES, ACE, WIND, SOHO), as well as from the twin STEREO spacecraft, but also from the Ulysses spacecraft at > 1 AU and out of the ecliptic plane were collected. In order to establish the link between the SEP events collected and the parent solar source activity the data has included associated solar data, namely parameters of solar flares, CMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO and STEREO experiments, metric type II and type III solar radio bursts and interplanetary type II and type III radio bursts. Furthermore, the SEP database encompasses intensity, spectral, composition elemental abundance and anisotropy data from well-selected SEP events observed in the interplanetary space. Finally, periods which exhibit “reservoir characteristics”, i.e. equal intensity observations at Ulysses and near-Earth spacecraft were identified. The reservoir effect has to do with the fact that SEP intensities observed at completely different parts of the heliosphere achieve near equality for periods of several days (Roelof et al., 1992). The reservoir effect is important for space weather forecasting because it may enhance the intensity and duration of high-energy particles, i.e. the duration of the space weather hazardous component. The SEP database was used for the scientific analysis that was performed. SEP sources and acceleration processes have been investigated. The similarities and differences have been used to deduce conclusions about these processes in terms of solar flares and ICME-driven shocks. In addition, based on SEP observations in and out of the ecliptic plane, the mechanisms responsible for the latitudinal spread of the SEPs in the heliosphere and their implications for cross-field diffusion of energetic particles was studied.The impact of the large-scale structure of the IMF on SEP temporal profiles has been investigated for a selected number of events. The influence of the IMF large-scale structure on the SEP temporal profiles is crucial for space weather forecasting, since there are cases in which, for example, the presence of a reflecting boundary in interplanetary space that blocks a flux tube (Malandraki et al., 2002) may lead to the reservoir effect and enhance this space weather hazard.Here the main results of the various analyses are listed: • Identified particle reservoirs in the 3-D heliosphere, established compositional and spectral invariance during reservoir periods.• Showed importance of reflecting boundaries for formation of particle reservoirs (Tan et al., 2012).• Explained initial, transient Fe/O enhancements in large, gradual events and entire temporal profile of Fe/O by rigidity-dependent transport rather than direct flare contribution (Tylka et al., 2013).• Investigated the possibility to forecast the proton event duration in the later phase of a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) event based on the faster electron measurements at the GLE onset (Tan et al. 2013).A new full orbit relativistic test-particle code for modelling SEP propagation from the Sun to Earth was developed within the project. The model is based on the code used by Dalla and Browning (2005) to study energetic particle acceleration in sites of magnetic reconnection (e.g. solar flares). This initial code was modified in order to include electric and magnetic field configurations relevant to the heliosphere and particle scattering, and be useful for the study of particle trajectories in the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). The full orbit test particle approach naturally allows for transport across the mean magnetic field to be included in the description of SEP propagation.Systematic runs of the test particle code for various particle energies, IMF conditions and source locations showed that high-energy SEP ions undergo significant drift across the IMF due to gradient and curvature of the large-scale Parker spiral field (Marsh et al 2013, Dalla et al 2013). In particular drifts are especially strong for partially ionized heavy ions because the drift velocity depends on the mass over charge ratio. The amount of drift was found to increase strongly with the increase of the absolute value of the heliographic latitude, but shows very weak dependence on the scattering mean free path (Marsh et al., 2013). Detailed analytical calculations of the drift velocity that are valid up to relativistic energies were also performed (Dalla et al., 2013). The displacements of particles from the Parker spiral field line on which they were injected, as deduced from the simulations, agree with the analytical calculations of drifts (Marsh et al., 2013).The main results include: • Identified particle drifts for the first time as significant for SEP propagation in the IMF (especially: partially ionized heavy ions).• Results led to basic understanding of the acceleration and transport of SEPs and to the construction of the SEP propagation model used for the COMESEP Alert System.• Perpendicular transport was included and taken into account in the model.***Space Weather ImpactIn total a list of the 100 largest geomagnetic storms during the last 100-150 years was built covering 1868-2010 and includes the various ranking parameters and associated rankings as well as the duration of the storm. The list was further elaborated by analysing a large number of data sets from the Sun to the Earth, and deriving specific parameters related to the storm periods. The solar data analysed included both old sunspot drawings and sunspot catalogue information, as well as solar flare lists from various periods. The near Earth data sets included information of the interplanetary medium both with respect to direct in-situ measurements, geomagnetic storm sudden commencements and Energetic Storm Particles (ESPs) indicating interplanetary shock passage and so-called Forbush decreases in ground-based neutron monitor data indicating passage of intense and large interplanetary magnetic field structures. Further the geomagnetic characteristics in various geomagnetic indices and single observatory data were elaborated and also GLEs in neutron monitor data associated with strong SEP events were included. For several of the parameters the characteristics of the very intense storms were compared with the similar parameters for less intense storms.A comprehensive database of events during the SOHO era was developed. It includes information of all the key observable parameters related to the solar environment, as well as geomagnetic and SEP impact in the near-Earth environment. Several event lists were built as a function of CME, ICME, SEP, etc. The database was used to perform basic statistical analyses to quantify the relationship between solar event parameters and their impact. The relevant question that was addressed pertained to what is the probability that a given solar event will produce a space weather event of a certain strength. The probability distributions of geomagnetic storms were derived in terms of Dst index as a function of the following storm parameters: CME speed and width, CME/flare source position, level of CME-CME interaction, and flare magnitude (Dumbović et al., 2014). The occurrence probabilities of SEP radiation storms, as well as their impacts in terms of the peak flux and fluence for protons with energies > 10 MeV and > 60 MeV, were derived as a function of the flare strength and longitude location, and the CME speed and width (Dierckxsens et al., 2014). Both analyses also investigated the dependency on the combination of solar parameters.It was investigated what the major causes of false alarms could be in regard to geomagnetic storms and SEP radiation storms alerts and thereby create the basis for suggesting possible solutions to the problem. A false alarm is defined when a storm is expected (alert is issued) based on solar activity and no storm occurs.The major results of these studies include:• Statistical relations between key parameters of solar eruptions, their geo-efficiency and their SEP characteristics were resolved.• New empirical methods to assess geo-efficiency of CMEs with large lead times as well as SEP event characteristics were developed and incorporated into the COMESEP Alert System.• Important ingredients in the chain of processes from Sun to Earth leading to extreme geomagnetic storms were identified.• Key parameters leading to geomagnetic storm false alarms were identified, and a scheme to include them in the Alert System was developed.STAGE 2. MODEL OPTIMISATION Efficient and reliable tools for forecasting the arrival of CMEs and SEPs were built under the COMESEP project and interact with each other through the three levels of the COMESEP Alert System:• First level producers.• Tools that are both consumers and producers.• Alerts.These interactions are schematically illustrated in the flow diagram presented in Figure 1. Output from first level producers displayed in the upper part of the diagram are used as input to tools that are both consumers and producers. Specifically, tools forecasting the arrival of an ICME and SEPs following the automated detection of a solar eruptive event were built:• For predicting the arrivals of ICMEs to Earth the DBM was upgraded and adjusted for implementation into the automated COMESP Alert System.• A tool for forecasting the risk of SEP radiation storms, referred to as SEPForecast, was developed within the COMESEP project and implemented within the real time COMESEP Alert System.Evaluation of these tools was carried out before they were implemented into the COMESEP Alert System. The tools that feed into the ICME and SEP forecasting tools, as well as those that consume their output in the COMESEP Alert System are briefly described below. It should be noted that a method was developed to relate coronal hole areas observed on the Sun to the solar wind characteristics at 1 AU. This tool is outside the COMESEP Alert System but is used as input.***First Level ProducersCACTus: CACTus stands for “Computer Aided CME Tracking”. It detects autonomously CMEs in image sequences from SOHO/LASCO and STEREO/COR2. For the COMESEP Alert System, only the LASCO detections are used. Whenever a CME with angular width larger than 150 degrees is detected, an alert is sent to the COMESEP Alert System.Solar DEMON: The Solar Dimming and EUV wave Monitor Solar (DEMON) is capable of providing information on flares (location, time and relative intensity), automatically and in real time using SDO/AIA data.Flaremail: Whenever an M- or X-class flare is detected in the GOES X-ray data, an alert is sent to the COMESEP Alert System. This service is provided in near real-time.GLE alert: The Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) tool parses the GLE Alert Plus produced by the University of Athens and ISNet (http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr/index.php/glealertplus) to the COMESEP Alert System. GLE Alert Monitor polls the history page every 2 minutes and checks if there is a new GLE alert. If so, it parses the information and sends an alert to the COMESEP Alert System.***Consumers/ProducersDBM: This tool provides as output the ICME Sun-Earth transit time, the arrival time, and the impact speed for the ICME segment which is expected to hit the Earth. It requires as input: CME take-off date; CME take-off time (the time when its frontal edge reached the distance of 20 solar radii, R0=20); CME speed at R0=20; asymptotic solar wind speed; central meridian distance of the CME source region; true angular width of the CME. If some of the last three input parameters are missing DBM automatically applies a “lower-level” DBM option.CGFT: The CME Geomagnetic Forecast Tool (CGFT) provides a probability estimation of arrival and likely geo-effectiveness of a CME based on its solar parameters, as well as an estimate of the storm duration. The probability of CME arrival is estimated on the source position of the associated flare, while the geo-effectiveness is estimated based on the CME width and speed, source position and X-ray class of the associated flare. The geo-effectiveness is defined based on the Dst index (disturbance storm time). The combination of probability estimations of arrival and geo-effectiveness for a CME defines the risk level. In addition, the estimated storm duration is based on the estimated geo-effectiveness and the month of the eruption.SEPForecast: This tool predicts the probability and level for a radiation storm with proton energies > 10 MeV and > 60 MeV resulting from a flare (M class or larger issued by Flaremail). The following information from other alert tools are also included if available: the flare location from Solar DEMON, the CME speed and width from CACTus, and when a GLE is observed from GLE Alert Monitor. Subsequent updates of the alert will be issued if this information becomes available after the SEPForecast alert has been issued. The predictions are based on a statistical analysis of SEP events observed during solar cycle 23. When the flare intensity and location is received within the COMESEP Alert System, SEPForecast produces predicted time profiles of SEP intensity at 1 AU from the Sun, by consulting a previously generated database of test particle model simulation outputs. Flux profiles of energetic protons for the integrated E > 10 MeV and E > 60 MeV energy ranges are calculated at the Earth’s location. Parameters of the proton intensity profiles such as the time to maximum intensity, event start and end times based on the above flux thresholds of 10 and 7.9x10-2 pfu, are derived from the predicted profiles.Geomag24: Estimates of the risk level of geomagnetic storm occurrence for the next 24 hours is provided by Geomag24. This tool takes as input recent alerts issued by the DBM and CGFT of ICME arrival time, speed and estimated geoeffectiveness. Observations of the last months of geomagnetic activity and solar wind observations combined with estimations of the background solar wind speed/coronal hole area is used to include the risk of corotating interation region generated magnetic storms in the estimate. This is combined with in-situ solar wind and geomagnetic data to estimate the risk of geomagnetic storm for the next 24 hours. The first part of the program is dedicated to linking DBM/CGFT alerts and forecasted high-speed streams to observed in-situ data. The second part evaluates storm level and probability.***AlertsGmag Alert #1: Triggered when a CME is estimated to be geoeffective. The process is started by a CME alert from CACTus, then the DBM will calculate the arrival time of the CME to the Earth (using also as input information on the background solar wind speed). The CGFT will estimate the risk of a geomagnetic storm, by combining the CME information with the corresponding flare data from Flaremail (flare intensity) and Solar DEMON (flare position).Gmag Alert #2: Provides the geomagnetic storm risk for the next 24h. Therefore, this alert provides information on the coming hours, whereas Gmag Alert #1 deals with a CME that may arrive several days after the alert was issued (depending on CME speed).SEP Alert: Issued by the SEPForecast tool for every flare with a magnitude of at least M1. The probability of occurrence and the expected strength of SEP radiation storms with proton energies > 10 MeV and > 60 MeV are evaluated based on input from Flaremail, Solar DEMON, CACTus and GLE Alert. The expected flux profiles from the test particle model simulation are also included.In summary the main results of the second stage of the project in preparation for stage three are:• Built tools for the automated real time detection of solar flares and CMEs, and derived their characteristics.• Developed tools for forecasting the arrival of an ICME (DBM) and the arrival of SEPs (SEPForecast).• Both forecasting tools were prepared for integration in the COMESEP Alert System, able to adapt to the number and type of inputs detected in real time. STAGE 3. ALERT SYSTEMThe COMESEP Alert System architecture was planned and set up in the first two years of the project. During Year 3, numerous improvements were achieved. In the final year of the project, the COMESEP Alert System evolved from a prototype to a final version, the latter including an improved complete set of tools, an improved system architecture and interface, as well as a registration tool that provides dissemination of alerts that include:• Geomagnetic storm alerts (“Event based” and “Next 24 hours”).• SEP (proton) storm alerts (E > 10 MeV and E > 60 MeV).The status of the COMESEP Alert System at the end of the project is:• The COMESEP Alert System is running in real time, automatically and without human intervention.• The forecast tools were validated using historical data.• The Alert System was evaluated by external users.• Users can access the results on the webpage and subscribe to email alerts. • Help pages and Alert System documentation are available. In the following a more detailed description of the COMESEP Alert System is given.Alert System Layout: Figure 2 displays the user interface in the final version of the COMESEP Alert System. Alerts are visible for the different themes: flare, CME, SEP event and geomagnetic activity. Each alert available in the COMESEP Alert System can be selected for more detailed information about the activity and possible relationships with other alerts. In the middle of the page a link to the COMESEP alerts registration page has been implemented. Help pages are available for the User by clicking on the “?” button. At the bottom of the page a disclaimer has been added.Risk Levels: The forecasting tools estimate the storm probability and impact, both of which are combined to obtain an estimated risk. For this purpose the COMESEP project has defined its own definition of risk. The risk matrix used to estimate geomagnetic storm and SEP radiation storm risk levels in the final version of the COMESEP Alert System is shown in Figure 3. Dissemination of Alerts: The final version of the COMESEP Alert System contains a registration section that allows the dissemination of alerts. It enables the user to subscribe to alerts sent via email by the COMESEP Alert System. The user can select the alerts of most interest: SEP radiation and/or geomagnetic storm alerts, of all risk levels from ‘low’ to ‘extreme’.References:- Cane H.V. Richardson I.G. von Rosenvinge T.T “A study of solar energetic particle events of 1997-2006: Their composition and associations”, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 114, A08101 (2010).- Dalla S. and P.K. Browning, “Particle acceleration at a three-dimensional reconnection site in the solar corona”, Astron. Astrophys. 436, 1103 (2005).- Dalla S., M.S. Marsh, J. Kelly and T. Laitinen, Solar Energetic Particle drifts in the Parker spiral, J. Geophys. Res, 118, 5979, doi:10.1002/jgra.50589 (2013).- Dierckxsens M., K. Tziotziou, S. Dalla, I. Patsou, M. Marsh, O. Malandraki, N. Crosby, N. Lygeros, “Statistical analysis of the relationship between solar events and solar energetic particle events”, in preparation (2014).- Dumbović, M., Devos, A., Vršnak, B., Sudar, D., Rodriguez, L. Ruždjak, D., Leer, K., Vennerstrom, S., Veronig, A., Robbrecht, E., “Geoeffectiveness of Coronal Mass Ejections in the SOHO era”, submitted to Solar Physics (2014).- Liu, Y. D., J.G. Luhmann, N. Lugaz, C. Möstl, J.A. Davies, S. D. Bale, R. P. Lin: “On Sun-to-Earth propagation of coronal mass ejections”, The Astrophysical Journal, 769, 45, 15 pp, doi: 10.1088/0004-637X/769/1/45 (2013).- Malandraki, O. E., E. T. Sarris, L. J. Lanzerotti, P. Trochoutsos, G. Tsiropoula, and M. Pick, “Solar Energetic Particles Inside a Coronal Mass Ejection Event Observed with the ACE Spacecraft”, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 64, 517 (2002).- Marsh M.S. S. Dalla, J. Kelly and T. Laitinen, “Drift-induced perpendicular transport of Solar Energetic Particles”, Astrophys. J., Astrophys. J., 774, 4 (2013).- Möstl, C., C.J. Farrugia, E.K.J Kilpua, L. Jian, Y. Liu, J.P Eastwood, R. Harrison, D.F. Webb, M. Temmer, D. Odstrcil, J.A. Davies, T. Rollett, J.G. Luhmann, N. Nitta, T. Mulligan, E.A. Jensen, R. Forsyth, B. Lavraud, C.A. de Koning, A.M. Veronig, A.B. - Galvin, T.L. Zhang, “Multi-point shock and flux rope analysis of multiple interplanetary coronal mass ejections around 2010 August 1 in the inner heliosphere”, Astrophys. J. 758, 10, doi:10.1088/0004-637X/758/1/10 (2012).- Roelof. E.C. Gold R.E. Simnett G.M. Tappin S.J. Armstrong T.P. Lanzerotti L.J. “Low-energy solar electrons and ions observed at ULYSSES February-April, 1991 - The inner heliosphere as a particle reservoir”, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 1243 (1992).- Tan, L.C. Malandraki, O.E. Reames, D. V., Ng, C. K., Wang, L. H., G. Dorrian, G. “Use of Incident and Reflected Solar Particle Beams to Trace the Topology of Magnetic Clouds”, Astrophysical Journal, 750, 146, (2012).- Tan, L.C. Malandraki, O. E., Reames, D. V., Ng, C. K., Wang, L. H., Patsou, I., Papaioannou, A., “Comparison between path length traveled by solar electrons and ions in ground-level enhancement events”, Astrophysical Journal, 768/1, 68 (2013).- Tylka, A. J., Malandraki, O. E., Dorrian, G., Ko, Y. K., Marsden, R. G., Ng, C. K., Tranquille, C., “Initial Fe/O Enhancements in Large, Gradual, Solar Energetic Particle Events: Observations from Wind and Ulysses”, Sol. Phys., 285, 251 (2013).- Vršnak, B., Žic, T., “Transit times of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and the solar wind speed”, Astron. Astrophys. 472, 937 (2007).- Vršnak B., T. Žic , D. Vrbanec , M. Temmer , T. Rollett , C. Möstl , A. Veronig , J. Čalogović , M. Dumbović , S. Lulić , Y.-J. Moon , A. Shanmugaraju, “Propagation of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections: The Drag-Based Model”, Solar Phys. DOI 10.1007/s11207-012-0035-4 (2012).Potential Impact:POTENTIAL IMPACT:The COMESEP project complements other FP7 space weather projects as well as ESA Space Situational Awareness activities for security of space assets from space. It has provided a new service for space vulnerable assets by building an operational space weather alert system. COMESEP has gone beyond individual detection tools and models, by integrating them into an automated start-to-end system. Furthermore, COMESEP has gone a step further by quantifying the model outputs in terms of geomagnetic storm and SEP radiation storm levels. The COMESEP Alert System provides more awareness on the links that exist between the traditional CME and SEP communities. Indeed, cross-collaboration between the SEP, CME, and terrestrial effects scientific communities has been an aspiration throughout the COMESEP project. Cross-collaborations built during the project continue in the post-COMESEP era and several co-authored papers have been the result. COMESEP has also been a platform for increasing international and European collaboration on space weather research and forecast. Space weather, just as climate change and energy production, fits in the group of global issues that affect all nations and that need not only an interdisciplinary approach but also an international one. This was in the philosophy of COMESEP and for this reason the project had external collaborators from U.S.A. and India. It should be highlighted that these international collaborations are being further pursued in the post-COMESEP era. The COMESEP project required that a wide range of knowledge be brought together to reach the project objectives. This was accomplished by building a Consortium that was comprised of senior scientists and several post-docs with specific know-how, as well as graduate and PhD students that were hired to work on the COMESEP project. The contribution of the young scientists to the project was two-fold: 1.) To hire people to help perform the work, 2.) To enhance future career possibilities of young scientists. During the project the young scientists acquired the following skills that they could take with them:• Obtain overall knowledge on a broad range of space physics disciplines.• Obtain practical experience in a range of scientific methods (data analysis, modelling, tool development).• Learn to collaborate across discipline boundaries (SEP - CME - Solar Flare). • Gain entrepreneurial skills (link outputs of research efforts to what users of space weather products need). • Observe how to coordinate and implement large international collaborations. • Learn to communicate scientific results not only to the scientific community but also to the general public. All these above-listed skills provide the young scientists an opportunity to progress in their scientific career. The following students were hired to work on COMESEP related topics: • Corinna Gressl (UNIGRAZ) performed her master thesis “Comparison of MHD Simulations of the Solar Wind with In-Situ Measured Plasma and Magnetic Field Parameters at 1 AU” within the COMESEP project. (Based on her work she was awarded the first prize at the CCMC student research contest 2012.) Thereafter, she started a PhD thesis, partially funded by COMESEP, and now pursued in the frame of the FP7 project eHEROES.• Tanja Rollett (UNIGRAZ) is a PhD researcher working on the interplanetary propagation of CMEs and has been involved in COMESEP basically for the whole project period. She has received a prestigious young-scientist scholarship from the University of Graz to finish her PhD (summer 2014). Thereafter she will be working as a post-doc researcher in a project recently approved by the Austrian Science Fund. This project is led by Christian Möstl, who was partially involved in COMESEP as a young post-doc researcher.• Thomas Rotter (UNIGRAZ) is a PhD researcher, working on the empirical prediction of solar wind parameters based on coronal hole areas on the Sun. He was partially funded by COMESEP. He received a scholarship from the University of Graz to finish his PhD (autumn 2014).• Tina Ibsen (DTU) worked on COMESEP as a master student in 2011 (finalised her master study on January 27, 2012).• Mateja Dumbović (HVAR) is a PhD student (COMESEP-employed at HVAR). Her PhD thesis will be fully based on her research in the frame of WP2 and WP4. PhD in progress; empirical model for ICME-geoeffectiveness prediction finished. PhD expected to be finished this year.• Slaven Lulic (HVAR) is a PhD student (not financed by COMESEP). His PhD thesis will be based a great deal on his research on shock waves in the frame of WP2 and WP4. PhD in progress; numerical simulations on shock wave propagation finished; PhD expected to be finished next year.Furthermore, several COMESEP Teams had summer-students that worked on COMESEP related topics: • Cedric Goossens, masters student in Physics from Gent University, Belgium, visited BIRA-IASB for five weeks starting July 9, 2012. (Determining the SEP distribution of event occurrence and strength, and correlate the strength with flare characteristics and CME parameters.) This internship was part of the masters curriculum and performed in collaboration with Prof. Dirk Ryckbosch from Gent University.• Garyfallia Kromyda, undergraduate student of the Department of Physics of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, visited BIRA-IASB for four weeks starting July 18, 2012. (Statistical analysis of the SEPEM reference event list (e.g. waiting times between events).)• Koen Hendrickx, masters student in Physics from Gent University, Belgium, visited BIRA-IASB for five weeks starting September 10, 2012. (Comparison of the performance of the test particle model in terms of interplanetary propagation protons and heavier ions.) This internship was part of the Masters curriculum and performed in collaboration with Prof. Dirk Ryckbosch from Gent University.• Jens Convents, master student in Physics from the Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium, visited BIRA-IASB for 6 weeks starting September 2, 2013. (Evaluation of the COMESEP solar energetic particle forecast system). This internship was part of the masters curriculum and performed in collaboration with Prof. Catherine De Clercq from the Vrije Universiteit Brussel.• Charalambos Kanella, graduate student at KU Leuven, Belgium, visited ROB for 4 weeks starting on September 2, 2013. During his stay, Mr. Kanella created a computer program to automatically link several lists of solar events created at ROB. The program uses temporal and spatial rules to link the different events, and it can be run in real time. This summer job was performed in collaboration with Prof. Stefaan Poedts from KU Leuven.The composition of the COMESEP Consortium was a good example of gender balance and provided young scientists with a stable working environment. It should be noted that the composition of the Consortium was due to the significant and unique expertise that each participant brought to the project and not by gender. However, it is clear that COMESEP has had a series of important outcomes as far as gender aspects are concerned. For example, five of the seven Team Leaders were female (including the project Coordinator) which is not your standard space research project composition. MAIN DISSEMINATION ACTIVITIES:***PublicationsCOMESEP results have been published in 46 peer-reviewed journals. Additionally, several COMESEP acknowledged papers are currently submitted and some are in preparation. During the project the following joint paper about the COMESEP project was published: Crosby N.B. , A. Veronig , E. Robbrecht, B. Vrsnak, S. Vennerstrom, O. Malandraki, S. Dalla, L. Rodriguez, N. Srivastava, M. Hesse, D. Odstrcil, on behalf of the COMESEP Consortium: “Forecasting the Space Weather Impact: the COMESEP Project”, Space Weather: the Space Radiation environment, in AIP Conf. Proceedings, 1500, 159-164, 2012. The paper “COMESEP Alert System: Geomagnetic and SEP Radiation Storms” by Crosby and members of the COMESEP Consortium is currently under preparation and will be the main paper of the COMESEP project. ***Presentations at ConferencesOver the duration of the project, results obtained and tools developed were disseminated through oral and poster presentations at conferences. These include more than 140 presentations, many of which took place at major international conferences such as the European Geophysical Union and American Geophysical Union annual meetings, and at European Space Weather Week meetings.***Launch of COMESEP Alert SystemThe COMESEP Alert System, available via the COMESEP website (http://comesep.eu/) was launched at the 10th European Space Weather Week (ESWW10) meeting that was held in Belgium in November 2013. In parallel several COMESEP acknowledged talks as well as posters were presented at ESWW10, a meeting that was attended by 385 participants from 36 countries.***COMESEP Alert System Help PagesAn extensive set of help pages is available on the COMESEP Alert System, including background material, as well as information on the tools that are integrated in the system. Contents include system overview, User interface help, tools description, and subscribing to email alerts.***Education and Public OutreachDuring the project many COMESEP related education and public outreach lectures, media releases, etc. were given:• HVAR (B. Vršnak), Public lecture “Effects of the Solar Activity on the Earth”, Institute “Ruđer Bošković”, Zagreb, Croatia, 15 Nov 2012, (full presentation available at http://www.irb.hr/korisnici/bosanac-dav/cfisunce.html)• HVAR (B. Vršnak), Radio broadcast: “The Sun and Earth”, Croatian Radio II, 20 Nov 2012• HVAR (B. Vršnak), TV broadcast: “Solar Activity and the Earth”, Croatian TV I, 21 Nov 2012• NOA (Malandraki O.E.): Our Eruptive Sun and Its Effects in Space, 16 May 2012, Greek Public University, Athens, Greece.• NOA (Malandraki O.E.): Space Weather: Our Eruptive Sun and Its Influences, 23 June 2012, Astronomy friends at the island of Kos, Greece.• NOA (Malandraki O.E. Papaioannou, A., Patsou, I., Tziotziou, K., Tan, L.): Heliophysics Research at NOA, Researcher's night, 28 September 2012, Athens, Greece.• HVAR participated in “Night under the Stars”, 20 April 2013, at Zagreb Observatory, organized by Institute Rudjer Boskovic - chatting about solar activity and its influence on Earth, advertising COMESEP.• HVAR (B. Vršnak) participated in a Radio broadcast: “Space Weather”, 21 May 2013, Croatian Radio IIEXPLOITATION OF RESULTS:COMESEP has gone from basic solar-terrestrial research to space weather operations by building an automated space weather alert system that provides geomagnetic storm alerts (“Event based” and “Next 24 hours”) and SEP (proton) storm alerts (E > 10 MeV and E > 60 MeV). The COMESEP Alert System provides dissemination of alerts and forecasts by e-mail to space weather vulnerable industries and other users. Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC, http://sidc.be/) forecasters and Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Space Weather Coordination Centre (SSCC, http://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ssa-space-weather-activities) operators are evaluating the COMESEP Alert System and considering its possible integration.The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) space weather scoreboard at NASA (http://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/SWScoreBoard/) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity for CME arrival time predictions. It provides a central location for the community to submit their forecast in real-time and compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived. In Table 1 the shock arrival time of the 9 Jan. 2014 event (19:32 UT) is compared with various CME shock arrival predictions. It is found that the COMESEP shock arrival prediction (10 Jan. 2014 at 04:04 UT) did very well compared with the other predictions. A version of the SEP test particle propagation model developed under COMESEP will be installed at the UK Met Office within their continuously manned Space Weather forecasting service. A forecaster will therefore be able to obtain model output using manually programmed input parameters and the results of the model will be used as information for his/her forecaster report.List of Websites:COMESEP website: http://comesep.eu/COMESEP Steering Committee:Norma Crosby [Project Coordinator and Team Leader], Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), Belgium, Norma.Crosby@aeronomie.be Astrid Veronig [Team Leader] , University of Graz (UNIGRAZ), AustriaLuciano Rodriguez [Team Leader], Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB), BelgiumBojan Vrsnak [Team Leader], HVAR Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy - University of Zagreb (HVAR), CroatiaSusanne Vennerstrøm [Team Leader], Technical University of Denmark (DTU), DenmarkOlga Malandraki [Team Leader], National Observatory of Athens (NOA), GreeceSilvia Dalla [Team Leader], University of Central Lancashire (UCLan), UK Powiązane dokumenty final1-comesep-finalreport-figures-table.pdf
