Policy analysis with beliefs about identifying restrictions

Informacje na temat projektu

PABIR

Identyfikator umowy o grant: 682877

DOI

10.3030/682877

Projekt został zamknięty

Data podpisania przez KE 22 Sierpnia 2016

Data rozpoczęcia 1 Października 2016

Data zakończenia 30 Września 2022

Finansowanie w ramach

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Koszt całkowity

€ 1 090 686,00

Wkład UE

€ 1 090 686,00

Koordynowany przez

UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON
United Kingdom

Periodic Reporting for period 4 - PABIR (Policy analysis with beliefs about identifying restrictions)

Okres sprawozdawczy: 2021-04-01 do 2022-09-30

Podsumowanie kontekstu i ogólnych celów projektu

This project developed a toolkit of new econometric methods for policy analysis using Structural Vector Autoregressions (one of the leading approaches for conducting empirical macroeconomic policy analysis). The methods allow researchers to relax the strong
- and often dubious - assumptions that were previously made in the literature or to formally incorporate beliefs about the validity of such assumptions. The methods rely on Robust Bayesian analysis, which offers computational advantages and a formal way to incorporate beliefs, while removing the sensitivity to assumptions that plagued existing approaches.

Prace wykonane od początku projektu do końca okresu sprawozdawczego oraz najważniejsze dotychczasowe rezultaty

The project resulted in several articles published in Econometrica, Journal of Econometrics, Quantitative Economics and Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, which developed the methods and illustrated their empirical relevance.

Innowacyjność oraz oczekiwany potencjalny wpływ (w tym dotychczasowe znaczenie społeczno-gospodarcze i szersze implikacje społeczne projektu)

One practical implication of the new methods is the suggestion to report set estimators, instead of point estimators. These sets correctly represent what can be learned from the data. The empirical findings in the published articles show that policy conclusions established in the literature can in fact be driven by arbitrary assumptions, thus offering a word of caution to empirical researchers as well as a strong motivation for using the new methods.

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