The research project adopted a mixed-methods approach and was organised in two phases of one year each. In the first phase, the fieldwork was prepared and data was collected. In the second phase, the data was analysed and a series of working papers and journal articles were prepared and drafted. The dissemination of the project’s findings was pursued through the preparation and publication of working papers and academic articles; the presentation of academic papers at conferences, workshops and seminars; the writing of media articles and blogs as well as the participation in events and meetings, which included policy-makers and civil society organisations.
Phase I - Data collection
In 2018, a large survey (n=757) and 41 in-depth narrative interviews were conducted with a diverse group of Syrians living in four cities in Lebanon and Turkey. The aim of the survey was to provide a global picture of living conditions of Syrian refugees in Turkey and Lebanon by assessing their pre-flight and current socioeconomic background as well as their migration, stay and return aspirations. The qualitative interviews explored life histories of respondents, the conditions under which particular mobility options were considered and how they changed over time, as well as narratives about how respondents imagined their personal and Syria’s future. Due to refugees’ vulnerability and in a logic of conducting collaborative research, the researcher closely worked together with a group of young Syrians living in Turkey and Lebanon for data collection. Respondents were located through walks in different neighbourhoods of the four cities and through personal networks of the research assistants and the researcher.
Phase II - Data analysis
First, descriptive statistics reveals respondents’ diverse educational backgrounds and their economic and legal vulnerability. Over a third of respondents (38.1%) had either no school or primary school; 46.3% higher or lower secondary school, and 15.6% attended university or an equivalent. 44.2% lived with a household income of less than 400 USD per month. Almost half of the survey respondents (46.6%) did not hold valid residence papers (in Lebanon, this figure was as high as 72.2%).
Second, the findings indicate a strong preference among the Syrian refugee population to return to Syria in case the conflict comes to an end (40.4%). A quarter of respondents (25.0%) made their return decision dependent on the outcome of the war. There were strong differences between the two countries, with significantly lower general return aspirations in Turkey and significantly lower conditional return aspirations in Lebanon. However, while aspirations for returning to Syria were generally high, a return under current conditions was perceived as premature and unsafe, with respondents fearing military conscription or political persecution upon return. Many respondents made their return conditional upon the outcome of the war (including a regime change), sufficient security, access to former property, the availability of basic services and employment opportunities. The in-depth interviews illustrated that interviewees did not consider the war to be finished or to finish in the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the project also finds moderate aspirations to stay in Turkey and Lebanon even if the war ended (16.2%); slightly higher aspirations for onward migration (18.4%); and, in Turkey, a strong resistance to the idea of migrating to Europe: 58.3% of respondents in Turkey did not want to migrate to Europe, even if they were given the necessary papers.
Third, the project reveals that it is a combination of political, economic, societal and psychological factors that drives refugees’ mobility. At the macro level, it is a configuration of structural drivers that has motivated people to leave Syria – widespread violence, persecution, economic recession, and a lack of public services, especially in education. Considerations to move on from Turkey and Lebanon were partly motivated by insufficient safety as well as legal and financial vulnerability, and inadequate access to health services and education. On a meso-level, the project shows that fleeing is often a family-level decision, with parents tending to remain in Syria. Female respondents generally have a lower ability to flee and migrate individually than men. At the micro-level, the research highlights the importance of life satisfaction, future imaginations and (the lack of) hope for a future return to Syria. For example, not being able to realise core life aspirations in a certain locality and having pessimistic imaginations about a future Syria were important elements for wanting to move on.
