In its first period CHE achieved the following:
• With the CHE tier-1 2015 global baseline simulation being delivered, a common base for high-resolution global estimates of CO2 concentrations and emissions has been established that can feed into the global to local information chain and permit the across-project interactions (with VERIFY and SCARBO) as the baseline simulations are freely accessible .
• These Tier-1 simulations will provide boundary conditions to continental and regional simulations and are also valuable for setting an internal benchmark to build an improved tier-2 series.
• A significant step forward for estimations of the uncertainty/precision is achieved via use of an ensemble system using the IPCC-based uncertainty-ranges and seven groups of emissions, following a study in WP3 and including the meteorological transport and emissions uncertainty estimates. The ensemble work accomplished is also preparatory to data assimilation activities as it allows to disentangle the transport and the surface emissions signal in producing a given CO2 concentration at a given location.
• The Data Assimilation work has completed the preparatory steps on infrastructure and standardisation of the input/output that are important but not very visual yet (CHE report D1.1 ).
In the second development year, the following was achieved:
• A review and assessment of the CHE observational capabilities from existing networks and platforms has been compiled (D5.1) for satellites CO2 and non-CO2 (e.g. CO NO2) components as well as for ground based remote sensing and in-situ components defining a clear set of recommendations.
• An outline for the global regional and local modelling capabilities clustered in offline and online approaches has clarified the implementation strategy for the multi-scale capability (D5.3 and D5.5) achievable within CHE and its follow-on, detailing the state-of-the-art modelling components (e.g. Atmospheric transport, biogenic fluxes, anthropogenic emissions, biomass burning, ocean fluxes, and atmospheric chemistry) and data assimilation methodologies (e.g. 4DVAR, EnKF, Hybrid EnVar), highlighting a key set recommendation and research priorities.
• An overview of the CHE uncertainty (D5.7) sources and objective uncertainty estimation techniques for the prior (e.g. IPCC, UNFCCC) and posterior components evaluating the uncertainty reduction capability in the context of quantitative network design activities, along with a set of recommendations and research priorities.
• A new set of global CO2 and CH4 simulations (CHE Tier-2, D2.6) along with ensemble simulations (10-member) to characterise variability and assess signal-to-noise ratios.
In the third and final development year, the following was achieved:
• The improved global system (ECMWF-IFS as used in CAMS + enhanced model & ancillary datasets) that performed the Tier-2 nature run at high resolution has been detailed in the D2.6 report. The regional system capabilities have been well demonstrated for COSMO-GHG and LOTOS-EUROS in the D2.4 report and for the local scale the Large-Eddy-Simulations LES report D2.8 contains detail information of the work undertaken to simulate CO2 plumes.
• The key requirements within the CHE project from research done in the Science-layer Work-packages (WP1-4) and connecting the specific requirements of the CHE Monitoring and Verification System prototype were detailed in the CHE Service-layer Work-package WP5. These are summarised in the deliverables D5.2 D5.4 D5.6 D.5.8 respectively covering the Earth observations, the modelling components, the data assimilation methodology and the uncertainty characterisation. A final D5.9 report summarises and links all the deliverables and identifies priorities.
