Descrizione del progetto
Il valore aggiunto delle previsioni climatiche stagionali per le decisioni sulla gestione integrata del rischio
L’obiettivo principale del progetto SECLI-FIRM, finanziato dall’UE, è dimostrare come l’uso di previsioni climatiche migliori possa contribuire a ridurre i rischi e i costi dei processi decisionali, valutando l’impatto delle informazioni climatiche sulla pianificazione operativa e sulla gestione del portafoglio. Il progetto svilupperà un set di dati completo appositamente costruito con più di 10 sistemi di previsione stagionale indipendenti su un’unica piattaforma. Intende inoltre far progredire gli strumenti di visualizzazione online per cercare di caratterizzare i requisiti degli utenti finali e i problemi decisionali associati per un’ampia gamma di portatori di interessi. I risultati ottimizzeranno le prestazioni delle previsioni climatiche, quantificheranno il valore aggiunto delle previsioni climatiche al processo decisionale e contribuiranno a integrare le previsioni stagionali nei processi decisionali dell’industria.
Obiettivo
The central objective of SECLI-FIRM is to demonstrate how the use of improved climate forecasts, out to several months ahead, can add practical and economic value to decision-making processes and outcomes, primarily in the energy sector, but also in the water sector. Specifically for the energy sector, SECLI-CLIM will assess the impact on operational planning and portfolio management, such as hedging and asset optimization, thus enabling quantification of the value-add provided by seasonal forecasts which have been calibrated, evaluated and tailored for each specific application. Improvements in management decisions will ultimately lead to an improved supply-demand balance and therefore to a more efficient energy system, particularly with respect to renewable energy, with corresponding benefits for climate change mitigation.
A simple, but effective, methodology will be used to assess value added. A control case will only utilise climatological conditions based on historical averaged values – currently the most common approach – while a test case will also consider individually optimised and tailored state-of-the-art probabilistic seasonal forecasts. This will be done for nine case studies for Europe and South America: recent seasons with anomalous/extreme climate conditions leading to problematic and quantifiable impacts for the energy and/or water industry. Crucially for success, the case studies will be co-designed by industrial and research partners.
These case studies will provide the basis for developing pilot climate services for a number of specific applications, allowing evaluation of the added value of near real-time information for decision making. Thus SECLI-FIRM will promote research advances in the optimization of seasonal forecasts for specific applications (e.g. by evaluating both local processes and large-scale teleconnections), as well as promoting the uptake of seasonal forecasts by industry and hence expansion of the climate services market.
Campo scientifico
- social sciencessociologygovernancecrisis management
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringenergy and fuelsrenewable energyhydroelectricity
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringnatural resources managementwater management
Parole chiave
Programma(i)
Invito a presentare proposte
Vedi altri progetti per questo bandoBando secondario
H2020-SC5-2017-OneStageB
Meccanismo di finanziamento
RIA - Research and Innovation actionCoordinatore
NR4 7TJ Norwich
Regno Unito