The key findings from this project were published in the 2018 edition of IEA’s World Energy Outlook report, and are covered in the Executive Summary, Chapter 1, Chapter 4, and Chapter 8 of the World Energy Outlook report.
Information about the World Energy Outlook 2018 report is available at
https://www.iea.org/weo2018/(odnośnik otworzy się w nowym oknie).
Chapter 4 and Chapter 8 of the World Energy Outlook 2018 report provide graphs/diagrams made for this project.
Additionally graphs/diagrams from the project are available at the following links:
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https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2019/march/a-long-term-view-of-natural-gas-security-in-the-european-union.html(odnośnik otworzy się w nowym oknie)-
https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/december/how-will-the-electricity-market-of-the-future-work.html(odnośnik otworzy się w nowym oknie)-
https://www.iea.org/weo2018/electricity/(odnośnik otworzy się w nowym oknie)The international launch in London to press took place on 13 November 2018, followed by a dedicated launch in Brussels, and various other WEO 2018 launch events were the traditional approach of spreading key findings of WEO-2018 and the Energy Union analysis to press and key stakeholders.
The findings additionally proliferated due to continued dissemination activities during the months after the launch through various media, but in particular on the web and social media channels.
The Brussels launch of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2018 took place on 27 November 2018, organised by Friends of Europe, to a room of around 300 people (ambassadors, industry representatives, EU officials, NGOs, etc.). Speakers included Fatih Birol (Executive Director of the International Energy Agency) and Maroš Šefčovič (European Commission Vice-President for Energy Union).
Event summary from organisers provided at
https://www.friendsofeurope.org/publication/governments-not-markets-will-determinegreener-energy-future-reveals-2018-iea-world(odnośnik otworzy się w nowym oknie)Overview of results for natural gas: The gradual projected decline in gas demand in the European Union means lower utilisation rates for cross-border transmission pipelines over time. However, gas infrastructure will remain a crucial security of supply asset for Europe, accommodating seasonal variations in both demand and supply, while alleviating the effects of extreme weather events. It will also become increasingly important for the electricity system, implying a higher degree of interdependence between gas and electricity security. Our analysis indicates that the EU’s current gas infrastructure can accommodate a wide range of supply configurations. However, this is only the case if gas is able to flow freely across borders, unencumbered by physical and regulatory constraints.
Overview of results for power sector: The Energy Union has the potential to bring about enhanced energy security, lower consumer bills and a better allocation of resources, though effective co-ordination is a necessary pre-condition for achieving these benefits. Policy interactions and co-ordination will be key to avoid unintended consequences. Meeting the 32% renewables target in gross final consumption leads to a 60% reduction in CO2 emissions from the power sector by 2030 compared to 2005, the reference year for the EU emissions trading system. Although the EU ETS would help to deliver part of the renewable investments, support mechanisms remain an important driver for renewables-based electricity over the outlook period. This could result in reduced demand for ETS allowances and, if the recently reinforced Market Stability Reserve (MSR) mechanism is not sufficient to absorb the surplus, less pressure on the ETS could lead to a CO2 price signal that is insufficient to incentivise coal-to-gas switching.
