Periodic Reporting for period 3 - POLAR-4DSpace (4DSpace: integrated study for space weather at high latitudes)
Okres sprawozdawczy: 2023-09-01 do 2025-02-28
The state of ionosphere at high latitudes is a crucial aspect of the space weather, which has important impact on today’s society, in particular in the context of increasing shipping, aviation, and other operations in the Arctic. High geomagnetic activity is often associated with irregular and turbulent ionosphere in the polar regions, in the Arctic and in Antarctica. This can impact propagation of radio waves, such as GNSS signals, that is signals that are used by GPS or Galileo systems for navigational and positioning services. The loss of these services can have significant impact on operations and safety in the polar regions.
Understanding processes in the polar ionosphere, their technological impacts, and laying foundations for robust models for forecasting space weather effects are one of the major goals in space science.
This project aims to determine the role of the aurorae for the development of plasma irregularities at high latitudes, and their impacts on the global navigation satellite systems. Through an integrated approach, combining in-situ measurements by sounding rockets, cutting-edge numerical simulations, and statistical studies with ground- and satellite-based observations at both hemispheres, it will provide in-depth understanding of plasma irregularities in the polar ionosphere, and lay foundations for the space weather models that will improve security of operations in the polar regions.
The project goals are to understand the role of the aurora in forming plasma density irregularities and establish foundations for a robust forecasting model for scintillations of radio waves in the polar regions.
Understanding processes in the polar ionosphere, their technological impacts, and laying foundations for robust models for forecasting space weather effects are one of the major goals in space science.
This project aims to determine the role of the aurorae for the development of plasma irregularities at high latitudes, and their impacts on the global navigation satellite systems. Through an integrated approach, combining in-situ measurements by sounding rockets, cutting-edge numerical simulations, and statistical studies with ground- and satellite-based observations at both hemispheres, it will provide in-depth understanding of plasma irregularities in the polar ionosphere, and lay foundations for the space weather models that will improve security of operations in the polar regions.
The project goals are to understand the role of the aurora in forming plasma density irregularities and establish foundations for a robust forecasting model for scintillations of radio waves in the polar regions.
We have analyzed in detail data from several sounding rocket missions as well as from satellites and ground-based instruments, including all-sky-cameras and TEC and scintillation receivers. Through these studies we have identified regions that are subject to largest irregularities in relation to auroral activity and can lead to most severe space weather effects on radio signals. These results give us insight into the role of auroral particle precipitation into formation of irregularities. To study these effects in detail we are now employing numerical simulations using supercomputers. We also use supercomputers to understand the performance of the instruments on the rockets and satellites in ionospheric plasma, including formation of wakes.
Through statistical studies, we have provided foundations for the modeling efforts. In statistics, we use both satellite data and the ground-based measurements from both Arctic and Antarctica. We have now created climatological models for ionospheric variability based on satellite data, as well as models based on the ground-based observations. The prototype models will be further improved to allow for modeling of scintillation and space weather effects, and to incorporate findings from the in-situ and other case studies.
Through statistical studies, we have provided foundations for the modeling efforts. In statistics, we use both satellite data and the ground-based measurements from both Arctic and Antarctica. We have now created climatological models for ionospheric variability based on satellite data, as well as models based on the ground-based observations. The prototype models will be further improved to allow for modeling of scintillation and space weather effects, and to incorporate findings from the in-situ and other case studies.
New models for the polar ionosphere will allow for forecasting severe space weather conditions. By the end of the project we plan to have developed a prototype of these models. We will also provide insight into regions that are most affected by structuring in relation to the auroral and into the physics behind that plasma structuring. This will contribute to the development of space weather forecasting services in near future with a particular focus on operations in the polar regions.