Periodic Reporting for period 2 - FOCUS-Africa (Full-value chain Optimised Climate User-centric Services for Southern Africa: FOCUS-Africa)
Okres sprawozdawczy: 2022-03-01 do 2023-08-31
The implementation of FOCUS-Africa is striving to achieve them through planned activities & tasks:
1. WP3 advanced the research on climate information and the results contributed to the better processing and use of climate data. WP3 analyses the most recent climate models' information over the SADC region looking at high-resolution climate projections and predictability of seasonal & decadal forecasts over the SADC Region. The changes in El Nino Southern Oscillations in the future are expected to have great implications for the agriculture sector as well as the changes in rainfall extremes on crop growing season. A specific multi-hazard Extreme Climate Index (ECI) was derived in order to detect extreme events in the SADC region. WP2 furthered knowledge on the water-energy-food nexus a critical issue in Southern Africa amidst high climate risks and changing environmental, economic and societal conditions. Linking with WP7 on capacity building, partners have developed 2 digital tools to enhance and ease the processing of climate data for user needs, including a tool for verification and bias correction of seasonal forecasts and a tool for calculation of agrometeorological indicators. Other research under the project has demonstrated the utility of alternative methods of monsoon onset calculation in eastern Africa and the use of machine learning in seasonal forecasts. A joint webinar with CONFER & Down2Earth projects was held in 2021 on Understanding Seasonal Forecasts in Africa Q&A With Climate Scientists. In 2023 another joint webinar was held on The Future of Climate Forecasting, in which BSC shared their wok under the project on decadal climate prediction.
2. The project held 2 hybrid stakeholders' workshops in Pretoria & Maputo. These workshops provided the opportunity to meet & closely interact with the users groups involved these cases studies: CS1 (food security, South Africa), CS8 (water and agriculture, Mauritius), CS3 (food security, Mozambique). Additionally, climate services experts of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of the SADC countries were invited & attended the workshop, sharing their expertise and contextual knowledge of the countries with the project partners, to share results and expertise with the project & ongoing initiatives in the region. Each workshop dedicated 1 day to capacity building activities with the NMHSs experts, promoted and organized by WP7 and focusing on objective seasonal forecasting (South Africa) and agrometeorological indicators and tools (Mozambique). The completion of 6 additional targeted field trips to Mauritius, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, and South Africa has significantly deepened user engagement & have been key to gathering data for comprehensive socio-economic benefit analyses. Remote engagement with partners & stakeholders for each CS continued throughout the period as a way to validate and consolidate collected data. Users’ requirements and challenges in relation to climate services in food security, water, energy, and infrastructure sectors have been characterized through development of workflows for co-production processes. Development of workflows ensures that each of the trial climate services is planned with a clear pathway for delivery to the users (WP5).
3. FOCUS-Africa's work contributes to scientific knowledge on regional climate change, forecasting and climate services for the Southern Africa region.The analysis produced in FOCUS-Africa WP3 provides scientific basis for further analysis on risk-based decision making, effective adaptation and increase reliability of climate models to better characterise the climate processes. Finally, the consortium members collaborated in several publications highlighting the results in Southern Africa Region, related with extreme weather events. The publications included Verification of ERA5 and ERA-Interim precipitation over Africa at intra-annual and inter-annual timescales; and A Novel Bias Correction Method for Extreme Events. The list of publications can be found on the project webpage.
1. WP3 advanced the research on climate information and the results contributed to the better processing and use of climate data. WP3 analyses the most recent climate models' information over the SADC region looking at high-resolution climate projections and predictability of seasonal & decadal forecasts over the SADC Region. The changes in El Nino Southern Oscillations in the future are expected to have great implications for the agriculture sector as well as the changes in rainfall extremes on crop growing season. A specific multi-hazard Extreme Climate Index (ECI) was derived in order to detect extreme events in the SADC region. WP2 furthered knowledge on the water-energy-food nexus a critical issue in Southern Africa amidst high climate risks and changing environmental, economic and societal conditions. Linking with WP7 on capacity building, partners have developed 2 digital tools to enhance and ease the processing of climate data for user needs, including a tool for verification and bias correction of seasonal forecasts and a tool for calculation of agrometeorological indicators. Other research under the project has demonstrated the utility of alternative methods of monsoon onset calculation in eastern Africa and the use of machine learning in seasonal forecasts. A joint webinar with CONFER & Down2Earth projects was held in 2021 on Understanding Seasonal Forecasts in Africa Q&A With Climate Scientists. In 2023 another joint webinar was held on The Future of Climate Forecasting, in which BSC shared their wok under the project on decadal climate prediction.
2. The project held 2 hybrid stakeholders' workshops in Pretoria & Maputo. These workshops provided the opportunity to meet & closely interact with the users groups involved these cases studies: CS1 (food security, South Africa), CS8 (water and agriculture, Mauritius), CS3 (food security, Mozambique). Additionally, climate services experts of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of the SADC countries were invited & attended the workshop, sharing their expertise and contextual knowledge of the countries with the project partners, to share results and expertise with the project & ongoing initiatives in the region. Each workshop dedicated 1 day to capacity building activities with the NMHSs experts, promoted and organized by WP7 and focusing on objective seasonal forecasting (South Africa) and agrometeorological indicators and tools (Mozambique). The completion of 6 additional targeted field trips to Mauritius, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, and South Africa has significantly deepened user engagement & have been key to gathering data for comprehensive socio-economic benefit analyses. Remote engagement with partners & stakeholders for each CS continued throughout the period as a way to validate and consolidate collected data. Users’ requirements and challenges in relation to climate services in food security, water, energy, and infrastructure sectors have been characterized through development of workflows for co-production processes. Development of workflows ensures that each of the trial climate services is planned with a clear pathway for delivery to the users (WP5).
3. FOCUS-Africa's work contributes to scientific knowledge on regional climate change, forecasting and climate services for the Southern Africa region.The analysis produced in FOCUS-Africa WP3 provides scientific basis for further analysis on risk-based decision making, effective adaptation and increase reliability of climate models to better characterise the climate processes. Finally, the consortium members collaborated in several publications highlighting the results in Southern Africa Region, related with extreme weather events. The publications included Verification of ERA5 and ERA-Interim precipitation over Africa at intra-annual and inter-annual timescales; and A Novel Bias Correction Method for Extreme Events. The list of publications can be found on the project webpage.
Tasks related to assessing user’s climate challenges & understanding of climate processes in the SADC region have been completed. An assessment of climate risk & vulnerability is a prerequisite for the construction of regional CS factoring the elements needed for improving resilience. High likelihood of reduced rainfall, decreased soil moisture, increased heatwaves and elevated fire danger is projected in low mitigation scenarios, demonstrating that Southern Africa may become less habitable.
The co-design aspect of the climate services was strengthened through users engagement activities implemented during the stakeholders workshops and the field missions in the targeted African countries. An important component of the development of climate services is the cross-fertilization across the CS. This has been achieved by the sharing of experiences during regular meetings led by WEMC. The CS leaders were encouraged to showcase new findings and developments with short presentations to share lessons & receive feedback from the team. Across the CS & through the 4 stakeholder workshops, needs for greater knowledge sharing among scientists, public institutions, local communities & enhancement of the technical capacity emerged as common aspects. The capacity building team (ACMAD) carried out an initial assessment on the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services regional capacity gaps & development needs based on the WMO Competency framework for Climate Services.
The co-design aspect of the climate services was strengthened through users engagement activities implemented during the stakeholders workshops and the field missions in the targeted African countries. An important component of the development of climate services is the cross-fertilization across the CS. This has been achieved by the sharing of experiences during regular meetings led by WEMC. The CS leaders were encouraged to showcase new findings and developments with short presentations to share lessons & receive feedback from the team. Across the CS & through the 4 stakeholder workshops, needs for greater knowledge sharing among scientists, public institutions, local communities & enhancement of the technical capacity emerged as common aspects. The capacity building team (ACMAD) carried out an initial assessment on the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services regional capacity gaps & development needs based on the WMO Competency framework for Climate Services.
A methodology to assess socio-economic impacts of project climate services was developed by the Impact Assessment Team. The baseline assessment of the socio-economic situation in each case was the first phase of assessment work. Every country was also assessed with regards to the existing climate services, producing a climate services benchmark for the country, as well as a regional benchmark for each sector. Climate service prototypes are expected to influence decision making processes & enable climate smart decision making for positive outcomes at CS level (limit yield losses for farmers, limit unproductive spills of water due to overfilling reservoirs) & wider positive impact at region or country level (improved agricultural productivity due to improvements in yields, improved energy security due to improved hydropower generation). An ex-ante analysis has been conducted using information gathered through hybrid workshops with key stakeholders including local actors from each CS. Stakeholder workshops, WP5 & WP6 have assisted in collectively defining decision processes & the value chain of services to evaluate the potential impact. Estimating the hypothetical monetary value of specific indicators for some CS was done with the intention of helping to demonstrate the impact that improved decision-making can provide to local economies and fellow users. Among key recommendations to develop prototypes that were similar in the CS, it appeared essential to continue the co-design process with fellow users with particular attention to their local needs & consistent feedback, to take measures to increase usability by a wider audience at regional, national level or beyond, & to put emphasis on capacity building for fellow users.