Periodic Reporting for period 1 - TraChange (Changing biodiversity in changing environments: Trait Changes across space and time)
Okres sprawozdawczy: 2021-01-15 do 2023-01-14
Systematic turnover in species composition is emerging as the most prevalent pattern uncovered by studies of temporal change in biodiversity in the recent past, and the signature of biodiversity change in the Anthropocene. The widespread replacement of species is unlikely to be replacing like with like. However, little is known about the characteristics (i.e. traits) of the outgoing and incoming species in local assemblages undergoing rapid compositional turnover. Nor is it known how the magnitude of the different environmental drivers (e.g. climate change, land use change) influence such patterns. This knowledge gap severely hampers our ability to predict changes in ecosystem function likely to arise from unfolding turnover.
Overall, the main goal of the TraChange project is to determine whether there are consistent and directional changes in community traits unfolding in the Anthropocene, using the most relevant datasets existing worldwide. Through 3 specific work packages (see figure attach), I will test whether there are universal patterns in the direction of trait changes by quantifying spatio-temporal change in traits across taxa and environmental gradients, and testing key assemblage trait distribution hypotheses (e.g. shrinking body size). This requires the integration of research from diverse disciplines (e.g. ecology and statistics), including the development of new methods and tools.
Overall, the main goal of the TraChange project is to determine whether there are consistent and directional changes in community traits unfolding in the Anthropocene, using the most relevant datasets existing worldwide. Through 3 specific work packages (see figure attach), I will test whether there are universal patterns in the direction of trait changes by quantifying spatio-temporal change in traits across taxa and environmental gradients, and testing key assemblage trait distribution hypotheses (e.g. shrinking body size). This requires the integration of research from diverse disciplines (e.g. ecology and statistics), including the development of new methods and tools.
The reporting period consisted of the full duration of the MSCA at the University of St Andrews.
During the first year, Trait and biodiversity time-series datasets were successfully assembled, synthesized, and harmonized, resulting in the selection of a few case studies related to key functional traits. During this process, a set of methods to incorporate trait variability into analyses of compositional change have been developed and made available with the submission of the first case study. Moreover, a series of databases have been produced as a result of this synthesis and will be published along with the peer-reviewed publications. The methods and datasets developed have been used to provide a systematic and comprehensive global study of body size changes across taxa, realms and climate, significantly contributing to further our understanding of large-scale trait changes. In this work, we also provide a unique look at the mechanisms driving body size changes, by decomposing assemblage body size change into compositional and within-species changes. A manuscript has been submitted and is currently under review in Science. During this stage, collaborations with hosts and project partners were consolidated through the co-supervision of students. For instance, a synthesis and analysis of life history trait changes (2nd case study) is being led by a ECR at Nottingham university (secondment location) in collaboration with the Researcher and supervised by the researcher and both hosts. This project is at the writing phase and submission is planned for the summer 2023.
The initially proposed research program for assessing the relationship between changes in drivers and changes in traits at different time-steps has been revised. After several discussions with members of the advisory board, it was decided that more in-depth spatio-temporal assessments of individual global drivers as well their potential effects on communities will have to be carried out before relating say drivers to spatio-temporal changes in traits across assemblages. Knowledge generated by these assessments has been published in the Global Change Biology journal in 2022, with a further publication being prepared for publication. While this work was carried out throughout the project, it was in addition to the planned tasks, thus leading to some delays on the DoA. The data collected and analyzed, as well as the knowledge gather and developed by the project, is now being used to explicitly evaluate spatio-temporal covariance structures between body size changes and environment gradients. This work is at the development and analysis stage.
During the first year, Trait and biodiversity time-series datasets were successfully assembled, synthesized, and harmonized, resulting in the selection of a few case studies related to key functional traits. During this process, a set of methods to incorporate trait variability into analyses of compositional change have been developed and made available with the submission of the first case study. Moreover, a series of databases have been produced as a result of this synthesis and will be published along with the peer-reviewed publications. The methods and datasets developed have been used to provide a systematic and comprehensive global study of body size changes across taxa, realms and climate, significantly contributing to further our understanding of large-scale trait changes. In this work, we also provide a unique look at the mechanisms driving body size changes, by decomposing assemblage body size change into compositional and within-species changes. A manuscript has been submitted and is currently under review in Science. During this stage, collaborations with hosts and project partners were consolidated through the co-supervision of students. For instance, a synthesis and analysis of life history trait changes (2nd case study) is being led by a ECR at Nottingham university (secondment location) in collaboration with the Researcher and supervised by the researcher and both hosts. This project is at the writing phase and submission is planned for the summer 2023.
The initially proposed research program for assessing the relationship between changes in drivers and changes in traits at different time-steps has been revised. After several discussions with members of the advisory board, it was decided that more in-depth spatio-temporal assessments of individual global drivers as well their potential effects on communities will have to be carried out before relating say drivers to spatio-temporal changes in traits across assemblages. Knowledge generated by these assessments has been published in the Global Change Biology journal in 2022, with a further publication being prepared for publication. While this work was carried out throughout the project, it was in addition to the planned tasks, thus leading to some delays on the DoA. The data collected and analyzed, as well as the knowledge gather and developed by the project, is now being used to explicitly evaluate spatio-temporal covariance structures between body size changes and environment gradients. This work is at the development and analysis stage.
The research developed during the project has contributed to advancing the state-of-the-art in the field of global biodiversity change and community ecology. Furthermore, the project has implemented advanced methodologies to robustly incorporate trait variability into analyses of compositional change. This effort has helped consolidate and operationalize a more widespread use of realistic measures of trait variability and has advanced the understanding of the mechanisms behind trait changes across the globe. The research findings transcend individual case studies and contribute to identifying patterns, quantifying changes, and improving the predictability of the consequences of global trait change on the composition and functioning of ecosystems. In addition, the global synthesis of body size changes across taxa, realms, and climates is unprecedented. Our results also have a considerable impact on the field of environmental conservation, as these advances have allowed for a deeper understanding of functioning diversity which can be incorporated into management recommendations (including biodiversity policy targets and sustainable development goals), thus linking ecological theory and conservation biology.