The ROCKS-PARADOX project has advanced the state of the art on multiple fronts.
First, the evoTS modelling framework is the most developed and flexible toolset available for studying within-lineage evolutionary change using time series data. By implementing both new and established models in a single coherent R package, the project has made rigorous evolutionary analysis accessible to the broader research community.
Second, the project introduced novel tests of model adequacy that shift attention from which model fits best to whether any model fits adequately – a conceptually important distinction that had been largely missing from the field. These tests provide a safeguard against drawing firm conclusions from models that do not, in fact, describe the data well.
Third, the landmark publication in Science (Holstad et al. 2024) demonstrated for the first time that genetic variance estimated from fossil samples predicts phenotypic divergence across millions of years of evolution. This confirms that a central parameter of microevolutionary theory is relevant at macroevolutionary timescales, directly addresses the paradox of stasis at the heart of the project, and opens entirely new avenues for using fossil data to inform evolutionary theory.
Fourth, the AI-based phenomics pipeline (the steginator) breaks new ground in palaeobiology by enabling automated, high-throughput collection of morphological data from fossil images. This technology dramatically reduces the time and cost of data collection, making possible future studies at scales that were previously impractical.
Fifth, by applying evoTS to the largest fossil time series dataset ever assembled, the project has provided the most comprehensive empirical characterisation of within-lineage evolutionary patterns in the fossil record. Results suggest it contains considerably more evolutionary change than decades of literature have recognised – a finding with broad implications for how we understand and model long-term evolution.
Taken together, the ROCKS-PARADOX project has established a new methodological and conceptual foundation for studying evolution across timescales. The tools and insights developed are expected to drive advances in evolutionary biology and palaeontology for years to come, and the research group has emerged as a leading centre for this line of enquiry, attracting students and collaborators from across the world.
