CriticalEarth is a research consortium focused on understanding tipping elements (TEs) in the climate system. TEs are components of the climate system that have the potential to undergo abrupt transitions, such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ice sheets, rainforests, and permafrost. The consortium aims to develop advanced statistical tools to monitor TEs and identify early-warning signals for tipping. They will also investigate the interaction between different TEs and the possibility of cascading tipping events. The research requires a truly interdisciplinary effort, combining paleoclimatic records, recent observations, and Earth System Models (ESMs). We train 15 early stage researchers (ESRs) to develop new methods for assessing the mechanisms and associated risks of critical transitions in the climate. The goal is to better understand the thresholds for irreversible climate change and develop early warning systems and safe operating spaces to avoid it.
It is important for society to understand climate tipping points because they pose a significant threat to human well-being and the sustainability. By identifying and understanding these tipping points, we can take action to avoid crossing them and prevent catastrophic climate change.
This requires developing advanced statistical tools, monitoring Tipping Elements (TEs) in the climate system, and investigating the interaction between different TEs. By doing so, we can better predict and prepare for potential climate changes, develop early warning systems, and identify safe operating spaces to avoid irreversible climate change.
The research objectives are:
1 Explore stochastic multiscale models in climate science and develop the theory of fast-slow systems and the relationship to classical bifurcation theory. Provide the theoretical basis for cascading tipping points in high-dimensional complex systems.
2 Dynamical analysis: Investigate and identify critical transitions in stochastic and deterministic dynamical models, such as state-of-the-art ESMs and compute safe operating spaces and transition probabilities. Develop the methodology and the mathematics of rare event algorithms with models of intermediate complexity.
3 Physical processes: Quantify the TEs and the interaction between different TEs in the Earth system.
4 Connect the paleoclimatic recordings of abrupt changes with the theories of critical transitions and identify useful early warning signals for future abrupt changes.
5 Develop a self-consistent framework for abrupt changes from observations and the model-hierarchy from low order to high-dimensional complex climate models.
6 Develop a theory of climate response in the presence of tipping points that goes beyond linear and equilibrium concepts, and specifically beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity.
