Periodic Reporting for period 1 - EDIPI (european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts)
Okres sprawozdawczy: 2021-03-01 do 2023-02-28
Extreme weather events exact a high socio-economic toll. A robust scientific understanding of extreme weather events is a key first step to reducing their impacts. The EDIPI project will specifically focus on advancing our understanding of the dynamics, predictability and impacts of temperature, precipitation (including drought) and surface wind extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean. These are high-impact events, which affect a densely populated and economically highly productive region. EDIPI's key scientific objectives are: to enhance the understanding of the physical processes driving European weather extremes in present and future climates; to advance predictive capabilities for weather extremes; and to evaluate impacts of weather extremes under global change. To achieve these objectives, the project seeks to combine climate science, statistical mechanics, dynamical systems theory, risk management, agronomy, epidemiology and more. This will open unexplored avenues in the study of the above weather extremes.
The initial months of the project focussed on running introductory meetings for all project participants, managing internal organisational arrangements, setting up the project website and, crucially, recruiting the Early-Stage Researchers (ESRs) that form the core of the project activities. By November 2021, all 14 ESRs were in place and had been enrolled in a Ph. D. programme.
ESRs have since then taken part in a large number of training activities, both at their home institutions and beyond. Specifically, EDIPI has organised a number of network-wide trainings that have brought all ESRs together in three occasions: in Uppsala in November 2021, in Paris in May 2022, and in Brussels in January 2023. Each ESR has further conducted a long working visit, lasting 2 to 3 months, to another institution within the EDIPI project. This has included visits to private companies, research centres and universities.
The project has also engaged with the scientific community and the general public through multiple channels. These include social media such as Twitter and LinkedIn, popular science articles authored by the ESRs, in-person presentations in schools, museums and libraries, and by producing pedagogical material aimed at school students.
The main scientific results of the EDIPI project have covered a wide number of different climate extremes affecting Europe. Many of these results are not published yet, as the ESRs are still finalising their scientific analyses. Published results include an analysis of the meteorological predictability of European heatwaves, which looks at how rapidly the atmospheric flow changes over time in the build-up of a heatwave, and a study of how we can attribute specific extreme climate events affecting Europe to anthropogenic climate change.
ESRs have since then taken part in a large number of training activities, both at their home institutions and beyond. Specifically, EDIPI has organised a number of network-wide trainings that have brought all ESRs together in three occasions: in Uppsala in November 2021, in Paris in May 2022, and in Brussels in January 2023. Each ESR has further conducted a long working visit, lasting 2 to 3 months, to another institution within the EDIPI project. This has included visits to private companies, research centres and universities.
The project has also engaged with the scientific community and the general public through multiple channels. These include social media such as Twitter and LinkedIn, popular science articles authored by the ESRs, in-person presentations in schools, museums and libraries, and by producing pedagogical material aimed at school students.
The main scientific results of the EDIPI project have covered a wide number of different climate extremes affecting Europe. Many of these results are not published yet, as the ESRs are still finalising their scientific analyses. Published results include an analysis of the meteorological predictability of European heatwaves, which looks at how rapidly the atmospheric flow changes over time in the build-up of a heatwave, and a study of how we can attribute specific extreme climate events affecting Europe to anthropogenic climate change.
The EDIPI project is significantly improving our understanding of climate extremes by implementing innovative analysis approaches. Examples of innovations that have been partly or fully achieved include using concepts from statistical mechanics (a branch of physics) to simulate extreme events in climate models at a low computational cost, using dynamical systems theory (a branch of mathematics that describes the behaviour of complex systems) to understand how predictable the atmosphere is during specific extreme events, and developing a method for rapid attribution of extratropical cyclones combining climate data with epidemiological models to better understand the public health impacts of climate extremes.
We expect that the methodological innovations within the project will provide a number of advances over the state-of-the-art in the coming two years. We specifically envisage the project providing:
- an improved physical understanding of how explosive cyclones in the North Atlantic and associated wet and windy extremes in Europe occur;
- a framework for the rapid numerical simulation of extreme European heatwaves;
- an improved understanding of the atmospheric and oceanic precursors to the onset and decay of atmospheric blocking, which is an atmospheric feature linked to European temperature extremes;
- a framework to understand how unusual large-scale winds in the upper troposphere (around 10 km from the ground) can lead to surface extremes;
- how the predictability of heatwaves may change in future climates;
- the ability to attribute windstorms and heavy precipitation from extratropical cyclones to anthropogenic climate change;
- impact-based drought forecasts for Europe building on the current physical drought forecasts;
- data on historical and future changes in land area affected by co-occurring hot, wet and dry extremes;
- information on regional public health impacts of specific temperature extremes in Europe;
- a risk assessment of the impact of windstorms on infrastructure in Europe under future climates;
- an evaluation of extreme weather indicators that may be used to evaluate extreme event impacts on crops.
We expect that the methodological innovations within the project will provide a number of advances over the state-of-the-art in the coming two years. We specifically envisage the project providing:
- an improved physical understanding of how explosive cyclones in the North Atlantic and associated wet and windy extremes in Europe occur;
- a framework for the rapid numerical simulation of extreme European heatwaves;
- an improved understanding of the atmospheric and oceanic precursors to the onset and decay of atmospheric blocking, which is an atmospheric feature linked to European temperature extremes;
- a framework to understand how unusual large-scale winds in the upper troposphere (around 10 km from the ground) can lead to surface extremes;
- how the predictability of heatwaves may change in future climates;
- the ability to attribute windstorms and heavy precipitation from extratropical cyclones to anthropogenic climate change;
- impact-based drought forecasts for Europe building on the current physical drought forecasts;
- data on historical and future changes in land area affected by co-occurring hot, wet and dry extremes;
- information on regional public health impacts of specific temperature extremes in Europe;
- a risk assessment of the impact of windstorms on infrastructure in Europe under future climates;
- an evaluation of extreme weather indicators that may be used to evaluate extreme event impacts on crops.