The study has shown that a reasonably positive business case for the UMTS is possible for operators with substantial market share ( ~30%). This is contrary to the depressing view dominating the industry analysts¿ reports today. Even the high license costs in large countries and the obligations on network rollout do not prevent a long-term profitability, due to the fact that the licence period in most cases is long. Yet the pressure from subsequently emerging technology generations, and on the other hand competition on the most advanced users, drive for as early as possible utilization upon the UMTS investments and licensed bandwidth. This is also in the interests of the citizens and economy as a whole in getting the most developed and efficient platform for advanced ubiquitous telecommunication and data services.
A positive impact was shown when the operator combines UMTS services with complementary public WLAN services. However, the direct impact of WLAN deployment on the profitability of overall UMTS case is not crucial, while indirect impact may be significant. For example customers demand for seamless WLAN as compulsory add-on to UMTS service, when choosing the operator. The often-expressed concern that the rise of public WLAN will destroy the 3G-business case is not justified. Instead, WLAN is a complementary, rather than a competing solution for 3G operators.
Reports are drawn into the overly pessimistic view of today, partially because they ¿forget¿ the long-term economic prospects seen in the previous and current 2G markets. One must not only look for extremely short payback period, or current short-term obstacles, but also remember the long-term opportunities, which are pointed out by the TONIC business case results.
The risk of delayed UMTS deployment and take-up, which can ruin the business case economically, should be fought back in all frontiers including UMTS operators, vendors, investors and application, content and service development/provisioning business, as well as regulatory and standardisation bodies.
Telecommunication companies, applications or content providers, investment organisations, industrial analysts, national regulatory authorities, EU and multinational bodies, and also academics can benefit of TONIC conclusions and recommendations on the emerging mobile broadband services delivered through combined UMTS and WLAN networks.