Periodic Reporting for period 2 - OptFORESTS (Harnessing forest genetic resources for increasing options in the face of environmental and societal challenges)
Okres sprawozdawczy: 2024-05-01 do 2025-10-31
Forests play a key role in the European bioeconomy and are essential for climate mitigation, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Under climate change, conserving and sustainably using forest genetic resources (FGR) is crucial to maintaining forest resilience and adaptive capacity. OptFORESTS integrates genetics, modelling, silviculture, and social sciences to connect biological innovation with forest management and policy needs.
OptFORESTS analyses adaptive and production traits using existing and next-generation common gardens, models tree adaptation across life stages, and develops low-input breeding and restoration strategies. Genetics–silviculture interactions are translated into new management options, demonstrated through training tools and field experiments. To support implementation, the project assesses the European nursery sector, anticipates future forest reproductive material (FRM) demand, and formulates policy-relevant recommendations. Nature-based solutions are co-designed with stakeholders through surveys and socio-economic analyses, supporting evidence-based decision-making in line with the European Green Deal.
OptFORESTS analyses adaptive and production traits using existing and next-generation common gardens, models tree adaptation across life stages, and develops low-input breeding and restoration strategies. Genetics–silviculture interactions are translated into new management options, demonstrated through training tools and field experiments. To support implementation, the project assesses the European nursery sector, anticipates future forest reproductive material (FRM) demand, and formulates policy-relevant recommendations. Nature-based solutions are co-designed with stakeholders through surveys and socio-economic analyses, supporting evidence-based decision-making in line with the European Green Deal.
In RP2, OptFORESTS significantly reinforced the scientific basis supporting its objectives. A key achievement is the consolidation of a phenotypic database from existing common gardens, comprising nearly one million observations across 70 trials and 10 species, now fully curated and supporting modelling activities. In parallel, a large tree-ring database covering 3,353 trees from six species and 23 trials is nearing completion, enabling refined analyses of climate–growth relationships. Major progress was also made in genomic data generation, including whole-genome sequencing of 778 oaks, contributing to peer-reviewed outputs such as a published study on genomic offset predictions in maritime pine, and feeding ongoing analyses linking genetic diversity, adaptation, and management.
The next-generation common garden network advanced rapidly, with 29 common gardens established across 17 countries and five climate zones. This large multi-species, multi-provenance infrastructure provides a long-term platform to investigate species mixtures, provenance interactions, and climate-driven responses.
Modelling activities were initiated using consolidated phenotypic data, supported by completed germination and growth chamber experiments for five species. Additional progress includes published work on non-invasive germination prediction using near-infrared spectroscopy, ongoing maternal-effect experiments, and advances in low-input breeding research, including estimation of genetic parameters and the development of diversified breeding strategies.
RP2 also strengthened the integration of genetic knowledge into forest management tools, notably marteloscope-based training and decision-support systems. Four regional case studies were launched to support landscape-scale management of forest genetic resources. Experimental work on forest reproductive material (FRM) production continued, addressing germination constraints, seed-harvest timing, and storage. In parallel, the assessment of the European nursery sector was completed, indicating a production capacity of 2.4–3 billion seedlings per year, and progress was made in modelling future FRM demand across Europe. Field sites for genetic enrichment and restoration were advanced, and simulation studies on adaptive management in declining forests were initiated, supported by new multigenerational genomic datasets for ash and oak.
The next-generation common garden network advanced rapidly, with 29 common gardens established across 17 countries and five climate zones. This large multi-species, multi-provenance infrastructure provides a long-term platform to investigate species mixtures, provenance interactions, and climate-driven responses.
Modelling activities were initiated using consolidated phenotypic data, supported by completed germination and growth chamber experiments for five species. Additional progress includes published work on non-invasive germination prediction using near-infrared spectroscopy, ongoing maternal-effect experiments, and advances in low-input breeding research, including estimation of genetic parameters and the development of diversified breeding strategies.
RP2 also strengthened the integration of genetic knowledge into forest management tools, notably marteloscope-based training and decision-support systems. Four regional case studies were launched to support landscape-scale management of forest genetic resources. Experimental work on forest reproductive material (FRM) production continued, addressing germination constraints, seed-harvest timing, and storage. In parallel, the assessment of the European nursery sector was completed, indicating a production capacity of 2.4–3 billion seedlings per year, and progress was made in modelling future FRM demand across Europe. Field sites for genetic enrichment and restoration were advanced, and simulation studies on adaptive management in declining forests were initiated, supported by new multigenerational genomic datasets for ash and oak.
Results obtained in RP2 that go beyond the state of the art have been presented in three main published manuscripts, namely:
Paper 1 – Evolution-oriented forest management under drought
This study uses an individual-based demo-genetic model to investigate how thinning and drought interact with natural and anthropogenic selection in forest trees. Conventional thinning that preferentially retains larger trees generated indirect anthropogenic selection, increasing vigour and reducing drought sensitivity by up to 30%. Avoiding early non-selective thinning maximised both short-term performance and long-term evolvability, demonstrating the potential of evolution-oriented forestry strategies.
Paper 2 – Governance of forest genetic resources and reproductive material
This paper maps the European stakeholder landscape involved in FGR and FRM governance using a Quadruple Helix framework. The analysis revealed strong internal tensions within and across stakeholder groups, reflecting conflicting objectives between production, conservation, and strict protection. The study provides a structured evidence base to support more integrated, coherent policies balancing genetic conservation and sustainable forest use.
Paper 3 – Non-destructive seed phenotyping using NIR spectroscopy
This study evaluates near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy as a non-destructive tool to classify seed origin and predict germination traits in Abies alba. NIR models classified seed populations with 69% accuracy and explained up to 65% of variation in germination probability. NIR-derived variables significantly improved germination models alongside stratification treatments, demonstrating the potential of NIR tools to support climate-adapted seed selection for nurseries and assisted migration programs.
Paper 1 – Evolution-oriented forest management under drought
This study uses an individual-based demo-genetic model to investigate how thinning and drought interact with natural and anthropogenic selection in forest trees. Conventional thinning that preferentially retains larger trees generated indirect anthropogenic selection, increasing vigour and reducing drought sensitivity by up to 30%. Avoiding early non-selective thinning maximised both short-term performance and long-term evolvability, demonstrating the potential of evolution-oriented forestry strategies.
Paper 2 – Governance of forest genetic resources and reproductive material
This paper maps the European stakeholder landscape involved in FGR and FRM governance using a Quadruple Helix framework. The analysis revealed strong internal tensions within and across stakeholder groups, reflecting conflicting objectives between production, conservation, and strict protection. The study provides a structured evidence base to support more integrated, coherent policies balancing genetic conservation and sustainable forest use.
Paper 3 – Non-destructive seed phenotyping using NIR spectroscopy
This study evaluates near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy as a non-destructive tool to classify seed origin and predict germination traits in Abies alba. NIR models classified seed populations with 69% accuracy and explained up to 65% of variation in germination probability. NIR-derived variables significantly improved germination models alongside stratification treatments, demonstrating the potential of NIR tools to support climate-adapted seed selection for nurseries and assisted migration programs.