Periodic Reporting for period 1 - REUNIR (REUNIR - Resilience, Enlargement, Union, Neighbourhood, International RelationsFuture-proofing EU security, Enlargement and Eastern neighbourhood policies for a new age of international relations)
Okres sprawozdawczy: 2024-01-01 do 2024-12-31
Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine has ended the post-Cold War European security order, creating new realities in countries neighbouring the EU and shattering illusions in several member states about the Kremlin’s true intentions in wider Europe. By starting the accession process with Ukraine and Moldova and granting candidate country status to Bosnia and Herzegovina, the EU has rejected a Russian sphere of influence in the eastern neighbourhood (EN) and the Western Balkans (WB) and instead determined where its future borders should lie. But these decisions have not yet led to other policies and actions tailored to effectively respond to a geopolitical context which also sees China and other state actors competing for influence in (south)eastern Europe. As the world gradually slides from a Helsinki-type order characterised by institutional multilateralism and international law to a Yalta-style model where today’s great powers divvy up their spheres of influence, a lot is riding on the EU’s ability to boost its resilience and that of its candidate countries and to bolster their agency to stick to their strategic interest of integration.
As global power dynamics shift, particularly with China's rise and Russia's aggressiveness, the EU’s approach to these regions must adapt to new realities. The project aims to systematically examine the evolving control and protean power structures within these regions, providing a nuanced understanding of the threats to their resilience - military, socio-economic, and democracy - posed by external actors and internal vulnerabilities. At its core, the project aims to equip the EU with a clear, strategic vision for its role in the transformation of the WB & EN. By integrating insights from the social sciences and humanities, the project ensures that policy recommendations are rooted in a comprehensive understanding of historical contexts, regional dynamics, and societal needs.
REUNIR’s ultimate objective is to offer evidence-based policy recommendations to strengthen the EU’s foreign policy toolkit, enabling the Eastern Neighbourhood and Western Balkans to withstand malign foreign influence and stay on course toward European integration, taking different future scenarios into account.
In sum, the project (Resilience, Enlargement, Union, Neighbourhood, International Relations – REUNIR) addresses the pressing question of how to future-proof EU security, enlargement, and Eastern Neighbourhood policies for a new era of international relations.
As global power dynamics shift, particularly with China's rise and Russia's aggressiveness, the EU’s approach to these regions must adapt to new realities. The project aims to systematically examine the evolving control and protean power structures within these regions, providing a nuanced understanding of the threats to their resilience - military, socio-economic, and democracy - posed by external actors and internal vulnerabilities. At its core, the project aims to equip the EU with a clear, strategic vision for its role in the transformation of the WB & EN. By integrating insights from the social sciences and humanities, the project ensures that policy recommendations are rooted in a comprehensive understanding of historical contexts, regional dynamics, and societal needs.
REUNIR’s ultimate objective is to offer evidence-based policy recommendations to strengthen the EU’s foreign policy toolkit, enabling the Eastern Neighbourhood and Western Balkans to withstand malign foreign influence and stay on course toward European integration, taking different future scenarios into account.
In sum, the project (Resilience, Enlargement, Union, Neighbourhood, International Relations – REUNIR) addresses the pressing question of how to future-proof EU security, enlargement, and Eastern Neighbourhood policies for a new era of international relations.
During Reporting Period 1, significant progress was made in both the technical and scientific aspects of the project. The research efforts were split between establishing the necessary infrastructure and refining the conceptual and methodological frameworks. In the first six months, focus was placed on setting up the research infrastructure in WP1 and refining the conceptual framework in WP2, which was then applied to the three key policy areas covered by REUNIR. Additionally, a methodology for threat assessments in WPs 3-5 was developed. In the second half of the Reporting Period 1, surveys and polling data were analysed in WP6 to assess perceptions about the (in)actions of the EU and other major actors in the EN and WB regions. Milestone 4, the validation of the conceptual and methodological frameworks, was achieved in May 2024, and Milestone 5, which involved the completion of draft threat assessments, was finalised by the end of 2024, with peer review, production, and submission following in month 13 (January 2025).
The work during Reporting Period 1 has laid a strong foundation for the empirical research in the following phase of the project, which will include field research to assess the resilience of the nine candidate countries under review. In the second half of 2025, we will assess the support provided by the EU in countering malign foreign interference in order to identify shortfalls and propose solutions.
The project also made strides in setting up the infrastructure necessary for dissemination, exploitation, and communication. A website was developed and social media presence secured. Initial awareness-building efforts were successful, and early dissemination activities helped engage relevant audiences and contribute to ongoing debates on EU enlargement, defence and security in wider Europe.
Efforts to strengthen the European epistemic community and build networks across the Western Balkans, Eastern Neighbourhood, and Europe were also initiated. Networking activities focused on fostering engagement among research, policy, and civil society communities. These efforts will continue and expand in the coming years, with increased participation in academic conferences, dissemination seminars across various countries, and ongoing engagement with key target audiences and stakeholders.
The work during Reporting Period 1 has laid a strong foundation for the empirical research in the following phase of the project, which will include field research to assess the resilience of the nine candidate countries under review. In the second half of 2025, we will assess the support provided by the EU in countering malign foreign interference in order to identify shortfalls and propose solutions.
The project also made strides in setting up the infrastructure necessary for dissemination, exploitation, and communication. A website was developed and social media presence secured. Initial awareness-building efforts were successful, and early dissemination activities helped engage relevant audiences and contribute to ongoing debates on EU enlargement, defence and security in wider Europe.
Efforts to strengthen the European epistemic community and build networks across the Western Balkans, Eastern Neighbourhood, and Europe were also initiated. Networking activities focused on fostering engagement among research, policy, and civil society communities. These efforts will continue and expand in the coming years, with increased participation in academic conferences, dissemination seminars across various countries, and ongoing engagement with key target audiences and stakeholders.
During Reporting Period 1 of the project we have not yet achieved results beyond the state of the art. The first final publications testing the refined conceptual framework were published beyond month 12.