Periodic Reporting for period 1 - ANTICIPATE (Absorb Nearby Tidy Identified Candidates for Ideal Parteking Available Temporal Extra-capacity)
Okres sprawozdawczy: 2024-09-01 do 2025-08-31
The increasing demand for air traffic, combined with limited airspace capacity, presents a major challenge to achieving a sustainable air transport system and to the effectiveness of Air Traffic Control and Flow Management (ATCFM). Short-Term ATFCM Measures (STAM) address some of the inefficiencies resulting from the spatial fragmentation of airspace. However, the rapidly changing and highly dynamic nature of traffic demand during the execution phase cannot be adequately matched by the slow and rigid capacity-adjustment mechanisms constrained by technical, staffing, and setup limitations. This rigidity hinders the implementation of efficient and effective “capacity-on-demand” solutions precisely where and when they are required.
Initiatives such as Dynamic Airspace Configuration (DAC) and Dynamic Airspace Sectorization (DAS) aim to enhance collaborative demand–capacity balancing. Nonetheless, discrepancies between pre-tactical trajectory planning data and real-time airborne information—caused by various uncertainties—continue to generate imbalances in Air Traffic Controller (ATCo) workload. This often results in overloading of certain sectors while adjacent ones remain underutilized.
Recent studies have emphasized the urgent need to evolve the conventional sector-based air traffic control framework. New procedures are required to alleviate ATCo workload in overloaded sectors and to support innovative strategies capable of accommodating future traffic volumes.
ANTICIPATE directly addresses these challenges. The project aims to develop a novel operational mechanism within the execution phase that complements pre-tactical and tactical ATFCM–ATC measures. Its objective is to dynamically balance workload across adjacent sectors by extending the concept AoR (area of Responsibility) towards CAoR (Cluster Aircraft of Responsibility). Thus, the Early Hand Over mechanism applied to a cluster of aircraft heading to an adjacent receiving sector can provide an efficient and effective service to decrease the Occupancy Count of Overloaded sectors below an acceptable declared Occupancy Count threshold, thereby reducing the need for unnecessary traffic regulations on the day of operations. ANTICIPATE will exploit the latent spare capacity within today’s fragmented sector management system by integrating concepts from Virtual Centres and “Integrated Network Management and (Extended) ATC Planning” (INAP) framework.
The ANTICIPATE project intent to leverage Data Analytics and Artificial Intelligence techniques to predict workload imbalances among adjacent sectors and to optimize the clustering of flights based on traffic complexity indicators. Furthermore, the project consider also Human Factors research, recognizing that the proposed procedures depend on active ATCo involvement, collaboration, and situational .
The main objectives of ANTICIPATE are threefold:
i) To analyze and validate an innovative “capacity-on-demand” operational mechanism, positioned in the pre-STAM phase, that leverages en-route and adjacent-sector workload balancing. This mechanism aims to mitigate sector overloads that can appear due to discrepancies between planned trajectories at the tactical level and actual airborne trajectories observed during operations
ii) To design and develop a digital Network Cockpit enhancing Local Traffic Manager (LTM) with a monitoring service of the Occupancy Count evolution on potential overloaded sectors and its adjacent receiving sectors to evaluate the available spare capacity around the overloaded sector. This cockpit will serve as a decision-support interface to improve pre-tactical ATFCM planning, facilitate real-time situational awareness, and avoid unnecessary reactive demand-ATC-Capacity regulation measures. By integrating predictive analytics and data-driven insights, it will enable more adaptive, collaborative, and transparent decision-making across the local sectors.
iii) To lay the foundation for a new generation of ATFCM mechanisms capable of managing complex and disruptive scenarios. ANTICIPATE project intent to evaluate the CAoR pairwise adjacent-sector balancing concept into a scalable multi-sector framework, allowing dynamic coordination across chains of downstream adjacent sectors. This will strengthen network resilience, enhance cross-sector collaboration, and support a seamless “capacity-on-demand” approach that ensures balanced workload distribution even under rapidly changing operational conditions.
Initiatives such as Dynamic Airspace Configuration (DAC) and Dynamic Airspace Sectorization (DAS) aim to enhance collaborative demand–capacity balancing. Nonetheless, discrepancies between pre-tactical trajectory planning data and real-time airborne information—caused by various uncertainties—continue to generate imbalances in Air Traffic Controller (ATCo) workload. This often results in overloading of certain sectors while adjacent ones remain underutilized.
Recent studies have emphasized the urgent need to evolve the conventional sector-based air traffic control framework. New procedures are required to alleviate ATCo workload in overloaded sectors and to support innovative strategies capable of accommodating future traffic volumes.
ANTICIPATE directly addresses these challenges. The project aims to develop a novel operational mechanism within the execution phase that complements pre-tactical and tactical ATFCM–ATC measures. Its objective is to dynamically balance workload across adjacent sectors by extending the concept AoR (area of Responsibility) towards CAoR (Cluster Aircraft of Responsibility). Thus, the Early Hand Over mechanism applied to a cluster of aircraft heading to an adjacent receiving sector can provide an efficient and effective service to decrease the Occupancy Count of Overloaded sectors below an acceptable declared Occupancy Count threshold, thereby reducing the need for unnecessary traffic regulations on the day of operations. ANTICIPATE will exploit the latent spare capacity within today’s fragmented sector management system by integrating concepts from Virtual Centres and “Integrated Network Management and (Extended) ATC Planning” (INAP) framework.
The ANTICIPATE project intent to leverage Data Analytics and Artificial Intelligence techniques to predict workload imbalances among adjacent sectors and to optimize the clustering of flights based on traffic complexity indicators. Furthermore, the project consider also Human Factors research, recognizing that the proposed procedures depend on active ATCo involvement, collaboration, and situational .
The main objectives of ANTICIPATE are threefold:
i) To analyze and validate an innovative “capacity-on-demand” operational mechanism, positioned in the pre-STAM phase, that leverages en-route and adjacent-sector workload balancing. This mechanism aims to mitigate sector overloads that can appear due to discrepancies between planned trajectories at the tactical level and actual airborne trajectories observed during operations
ii) To design and develop a digital Network Cockpit enhancing Local Traffic Manager (LTM) with a monitoring service of the Occupancy Count evolution on potential overloaded sectors and its adjacent receiving sectors to evaluate the available spare capacity around the overloaded sector. This cockpit will serve as a decision-support interface to improve pre-tactical ATFCM planning, facilitate real-time situational awareness, and avoid unnecessary reactive demand-ATC-Capacity regulation measures. By integrating predictive analytics and data-driven insights, it will enable more adaptive, collaborative, and transparent decision-making across the local sectors.
iii) To lay the foundation for a new generation of ATFCM mechanisms capable of managing complex and disruptive scenarios. ANTICIPATE project intent to evaluate the CAoR pairwise adjacent-sector balancing concept into a scalable multi-sector framework, allowing dynamic coordination across chains of downstream adjacent sectors. This will strengthen network resilience, enhance cross-sector collaboration, and support a seamless “capacity-on-demand” approach that ensures balanced workload distribution even under rapidly changing operational conditions.
After a review of recent advances on DAC,DAS and FCA, the Concept of Operations, formalizing the different criteria (functional and non-functional requirements) for the CAEHO deployment considering the INAP framework.
The LTM procedures at preptactical and tactical phases has been formalized together with the procedures at execution phase of the Executive and Planner at the delegating and at the receiving sectors.
A preliminary definition of the cockpit indicators has been formalized
The clusterization algorithm has been described and implemented
The LTM procedures at preptactical and tactical phases has been formalized together with the procedures at execution phase of the Executive and Planner at the delegating and at the receiving sectors.
A preliminary definition of the cockpit indicators has been formalized
The clusterization algorithm has been described and implemented
Traffic scenarios using historical data has been analyzed, identifying the 27/7/2025 as the day with more ATC-Capacity regulations activated in ECAC area (above 120 regulations due to ATC-Capacity).
It has been confirmed an inverse correlation of the Occupancy Count of the overloaded sectors with respect to its adjacent receiving sectors. Thus, when a sector has a peak occupancy count, its adjacent sectors use to have a valley occupancy count value.
For all the overloaded sectors, it was crosschecked that the available spare capacity on the adjacent sectors could be enough for ATCos to accept the early delegation of aircraft clusters.
Besides the estimation of available spare capacity, a key aspect is the identification of aircraft candidates that could be delegated t adjacent sectors. Some criteria such as that aircraft candidates should be less that 5 minutes to the exit waypoint, or that aircraft candidates should be conflict free, constraint the application of the CAEHO due to lack of aircraft candidates, since most of them are located near the entry waypoints on the overloaded sector at the peak occupancy count.
Results achieved, confirms that 1/4 of the ATC-Capacity regulations could be avoided using the CAEHO mechanism.
As a result, it has been identified that the combination of "late delegation" from the adjacent feeder sectors with the "early delegation" to the adjacent receiving sectors, could be key service to maintain the occupancy count below a certain declared threshold and avoid the triggering of ATC-Capacity regulations.
Furthermore, an important outcome of ANTICIPATE is that AU preferred trajectories can be preserved under nominal conditions when overloads are anticipated.
It has been confirmed an inverse correlation of the Occupancy Count of the overloaded sectors with respect to its adjacent receiving sectors. Thus, when a sector has a peak occupancy count, its adjacent sectors use to have a valley occupancy count value.
For all the overloaded sectors, it was crosschecked that the available spare capacity on the adjacent sectors could be enough for ATCos to accept the early delegation of aircraft clusters.
Besides the estimation of available spare capacity, a key aspect is the identification of aircraft candidates that could be delegated t adjacent sectors. Some criteria such as that aircraft candidates should be less that 5 minutes to the exit waypoint, or that aircraft candidates should be conflict free, constraint the application of the CAEHO due to lack of aircraft candidates, since most of them are located near the entry waypoints on the overloaded sector at the peak occupancy count.
Results achieved, confirms that 1/4 of the ATC-Capacity regulations could be avoided using the CAEHO mechanism.
As a result, it has been identified that the combination of "late delegation" from the adjacent feeder sectors with the "early delegation" to the adjacent receiving sectors, could be key service to maintain the occupancy count below a certain declared threshold and avoid the triggering of ATC-Capacity regulations.
Furthermore, an important outcome of ANTICIPATE is that AU preferred trajectories can be preserved under nominal conditions when overloads are anticipated.