Periodic Reporting for period 2 - EXHAUSTION (Exposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation)
Okres sprawozdawczy: 2020-12-01 do 2022-05-31
Extreme heat is a key climate change risk in Europe. Extreme temperatures increase the rates of death (mortality) and can exacerbate a range of diseases (morbidity). In particular, this applies to death and disease related to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases (CVD and RD), which together constitute cardiopulmonary diseases (CPD).
The health effects of extreme heat are interlinked with air pollution in several ways. Air pollution is currently the largest environmental killer in Europe. Previous studies indicate that there are interaction effects of extreme heat and air pollution on CPD outcomes. Also, extreme heat may increase air pollution levels, e.g. linked to large-scale (synoptic) meteorological features. Increasing temperatures may also lead to increased emissions of air pollutants from anthropogenic and natural sources, including from wildland fires. In an increasingly warming world, episodes of extreme heat and high levels of air pollution are likely to occur simultaneously, could occur more often, last longer, and become more intense – causing increasing health risks.
The vulnerability to environmental stressors such as extreme temperatures and air pollution can differ widely among population groups due to complex causal pathways and differential vulnerability associated with contextual and individual factors. To develop climate change adaptation policies, a detailed understanding of the predominant vulnerability factors in different communities and regions is needed.
The EXHAUSTION project aims to quantify changes in cardiopulmonary death and disease due to extreme heat and air pollution (including from wildfires) under selected climate scenarios while including a diverse set of adaptation mechanisms and strategies, calculate the associated costs, and identify effective strategies for minimizing adverse impacts. The results will be disseminated to the general public and key decision- and policy-makers across Europe, providing a tool to increase European resilience towards climate change.
The health effects of extreme heat are interlinked with air pollution in several ways. Air pollution is currently the largest environmental killer in Europe. Previous studies indicate that there are interaction effects of extreme heat and air pollution on CPD outcomes. Also, extreme heat may increase air pollution levels, e.g. linked to large-scale (synoptic) meteorological features. Increasing temperatures may also lead to increased emissions of air pollutants from anthropogenic and natural sources, including from wildland fires. In an increasingly warming world, episodes of extreme heat and high levels of air pollution are likely to occur simultaneously, could occur more often, last longer, and become more intense – causing increasing health risks.
The vulnerability to environmental stressors such as extreme temperatures and air pollution can differ widely among population groups due to complex causal pathways and differential vulnerability associated with contextual and individual factors. To develop climate change adaptation policies, a detailed understanding of the predominant vulnerability factors in different communities and regions is needed.
The EXHAUSTION project aims to quantify changes in cardiopulmonary death and disease due to extreme heat and air pollution (including from wildfires) under selected climate scenarios while including a diverse set of adaptation mechanisms and strategies, calculate the associated costs, and identify effective strategies for minimizing adverse impacts. The results will be disseminated to the general public and key decision- and policy-makers across Europe, providing a tool to increase European resilience towards climate change.
By M36 substantive progress has been made. A new fire forecasting model has been concluded and applied to historical periods and to three CESM (Community Earth System Model) scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370) 2015-2099 to produce global emission time series. Global SILAM (System for Integrated Modeling of Atmospheric Composition) runs were used for chemical boundary conditions for European regional runs. Regional air pollution downscaling experiments are carried out using two off-line Chemical Transport Models, and one on-line model (currently ongoing). Regional climate downscaling experiments have been carried out for the same historical and future scenarios as above. Statistical downscaling over selected cities in Europe (Pilot: Bucharest) are in preparation.
Exposure-response relationship between temperature and cardiopulmonary (CPD) health have been established for Europe and reports finalised. The analyses showed an increased risk of CPD mortality and morbidity during heat exposure. The heat effect was stronger for respiratory (RD) mortality/morbidity than for cardiovascular (CVD) causes. The elderly (65+ years) and females were more vulnerable to the adverse health effects of heat. More prominent heat effects were found in the south of Europe. Regarding potential interactive effects of high temperature and air pollutants on heart- and lung-related deaths and diseases, analyses are carried out and reports finalised, establishing evidence of interaction. Regarding the role of individual and contextual vulnerability factors (effect modifiers), a database of location-specific socio-economic, land-use and environmental characteristics for cities and small areas has been established and work is currently in progress to investigate the role of these factors.
By combining population exposure projections based on the climate and air pollution modelling and the exposure-response relationships, work is in progress to estimate the future exacerbation of CPD in European settings and attribute the change in CPD mortality to a changing climate. The project further estimates the socio-economic consequences of the health burden using two existing economic models. Work is currently ongoing regarding incorporating heat-health effects in these models. Moreover, two empirical case studies are currently undertaken to estimate the impacts of ambient temperature on worker productivity (UK) and direct health care costs (cost-of-illness) related to cardiopulmonary disease (Norway).
Effective communication, dissemination, and exploitation of project results are important elements in EXHAUSTION. During the reporting period the project has had important outreach through articles, radio interviews and podcasts. Two of the papers on the list of top 10 climate papers in 2021 developed by Carbon brief are linked to EXHAUSTION and involve several researchers in the project. Outputs also include data visualisations and videos disseminated through Twitter, web, presentations and newsletters. As examples, we co-organised two events on climate change and health at COP26 in Glasgow and one of the webinars at the 5th European Climate Change Adaptation Conference (ECCA) in 2021. A dataset of projections and past evolutions of climate extremes indices and heat stress indicators based on the latest generation of climate models (CMIP6) has been developed and made publicly available via the Copernicus Climate Data Store . The consortium has made considerable efforts regarding establishing collaboration with other projects within the field of climate change and health.
Exposure-response relationship between temperature and cardiopulmonary (CPD) health have been established for Europe and reports finalised. The analyses showed an increased risk of CPD mortality and morbidity during heat exposure. The heat effect was stronger for respiratory (RD) mortality/morbidity than for cardiovascular (CVD) causes. The elderly (65+ years) and females were more vulnerable to the adverse health effects of heat. More prominent heat effects were found in the south of Europe. Regarding potential interactive effects of high temperature and air pollutants on heart- and lung-related deaths and diseases, analyses are carried out and reports finalised, establishing evidence of interaction. Regarding the role of individual and contextual vulnerability factors (effect modifiers), a database of location-specific socio-economic, land-use and environmental characteristics for cities and small areas has been established and work is currently in progress to investigate the role of these factors.
By combining population exposure projections based on the climate and air pollution modelling and the exposure-response relationships, work is in progress to estimate the future exacerbation of CPD in European settings and attribute the change in CPD mortality to a changing climate. The project further estimates the socio-economic consequences of the health burden using two existing economic models. Work is currently ongoing regarding incorporating heat-health effects in these models. Moreover, two empirical case studies are currently undertaken to estimate the impacts of ambient temperature on worker productivity (UK) and direct health care costs (cost-of-illness) related to cardiopulmonary disease (Norway).
Effective communication, dissemination, and exploitation of project results are important elements in EXHAUSTION. During the reporting period the project has had important outreach through articles, radio interviews and podcasts. Two of the papers on the list of top 10 climate papers in 2021 developed by Carbon brief are linked to EXHAUSTION and involve several researchers in the project. Outputs also include data visualisations and videos disseminated through Twitter, web, presentations and newsletters. As examples, we co-organised two events on climate change and health at COP26 in Glasgow and one of the webinars at the 5th European Climate Change Adaptation Conference (ECCA) in 2021. A dataset of projections and past evolutions of climate extremes indices and heat stress indicators based on the latest generation of climate models (CMIP6) has been developed and made publicly available via the Copernicus Climate Data Store . The consortium has made considerable efforts regarding establishing collaboration with other projects within the field of climate change and health.
EXHAUSTION’s ambition is to substantially advance the knowledge and develop new evidence regarding the links between climate change, extreme heat, air pollution, and human health in Europe, and the socio-economic consequences of these impacts. Through the deployment of a true multidisciplinary approach, the project will allow to go beyond the state of the art in several research and application domains. Specifically, EXHAUSTION aims to contribute to filling key knowledge gaps and advance on the following topics: 1) Incorporate adaptation in the modelling of future health burden attributable to climate change, 2) incorporate temperature - air pollution interaction effects in the modelling of future health burden, and 3) modelling of socio-economic costs. As evident from the results so far, by M36 the project has made substantial progress towards advancing on these topics.
CPD is highly prevalent in Europe and increases with an ageing population. Given the high cost and human suffering, avoiding an increase in these diseases, or even reducing it, will have large impacts on society through saved healthcare costs and through improved quality-of-life for very many people. The adaptation strategies identified by EXHAUSTION is expected to help avoid premature death and disease among vulnerable groups.
Output from EXHAUSTION will support evidence-based decision-making and will have great impact on European policy making.
Finally, EXHAUSTION will impact science through the development of innovative research methodologies that link epidemiological research with research to develop adaptation strategies. This enables advanced assessment of the broader societal consequences and costs of climate change and will contribute to state-of-the-art European research.
CPD is highly prevalent in Europe and increases with an ageing population. Given the high cost and human suffering, avoiding an increase in these diseases, or even reducing it, will have large impacts on society through saved healthcare costs and through improved quality-of-life for very many people. The adaptation strategies identified by EXHAUSTION is expected to help avoid premature death and disease among vulnerable groups.
Output from EXHAUSTION will support evidence-based decision-making and will have great impact on European policy making.
Finally, EXHAUSTION will impact science through the development of innovative research methodologies that link epidemiological research with research to develop adaptation strategies. This enables advanced assessment of the broader societal consequences and costs of climate change and will contribute to state-of-the-art European research.