According to ArcticHubs research, all businesses in the region anticipate growth. However, the lack of local capital necessitates increased foreign investment, raising concerns about the overexploitation of the fragile Arctic environment. This poses risks to local communities, who question growth driven solely by financial interests. Balancing economic growth with long-term environmental sustainability is a critical issue for the future of the European Arctic.
Geopolitical tensions have led to increased military investments in northern Europe, influencing the region's development. Businesses must prepare for threats such as trade wars, border closures, and security risks, including military tensions, uncontrolled migration, and environmental disasters like oil spills. The previously perceived safety of the region has been compromised.
ArcticHubs aimed to distinguish the environmental changes in the Arctic caused by economic activities from those due to climate change. By comparing Arctic and Alpine cases, a broader European perspective was achieved. The project introduced co-creation methods through dialogue with hub representatives and stakeholders, including indigenous groups. The DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) framework was applied effectively.
The research assessed the socioeconomic and cultural impacts of key industries—mining, fish farming, forestry, and tourism—revealing both positive and negative local effects. Stakeholder participation is essential to mitigate negative impacts, with a focus on addressing power imbalances and improving cross-sector communication. Future strategies should prioritize sustainable development, considering alternatives like degrowth, doughnut economics, and postcolonial justice to align with indigenous needs and planetary boundaries.
The concept of a social license to operate (SLO) is critical in addressing current challenges, especially in mining, aquaculture, and tourism. SLO involves addressing impacts on reindeer herding, Sami rights, and ensuring meaningful stakeholder dialogue beyond standard Corporate Social Responsibility practices. Although not widely applied, SLO could be key to balancing economic benefits with environmental protection and respecting local communities' rights.
ArcticHubs also focused on enhancing co-creation with local and Indigenous communities by developing participatory tools like PPGIS, RenGIS, CodGIS, Serious Gaming, and Unmanned Forestry Machine modules. These tools, designed based on stakeholder feedback, combine digital and traditional methods to improve dialogue and participation in rights and stakeholder processes. They have supported dynamic, mutual learning processes across ArcticHubs work packages, providing new insights into resolving conflicts over industrial impacts on the environment and traditional land use.
Involving local communities in decision-making is crucial for the future development of the Arctic. While global economic activities like mining, tourism, and aquaculture are welcomed for the opportunities they bring, ensuring social and environmental sustainability is increasingly important. Looking ahead to 2035, the region’s natural resources, indigeneity, and local identities are seen as key opportunities to attract both visitors and residents. However, threats such as land use conflicts, global corporate influence, rapid demographic changes, and climate change remain significant challenges.
