'Oil dominant' world energy system foreseeable by 2030, warns report
Unless research activities and policies are stepped up to cut greenhouse gases and better promote the deployment of renewable energies, the world will have a huge energy and environmental crisis on its hands by 2030, predicts a study carried out by an EU consortium of research teams. The report entitled, 'world energy, technology and climate policy outlook' (WETO) assesses the impact of individual energy projections, energy technology progress and climate change indicators on the future of global energy systems. It estimates that if current energy consumption trends and structural changes in the global economy continue, the world's energy consumption will be doubled over the next thirty years. As EU Commissioner for Research Philippe Busquin explains, such an assessment of the long term issues is key to future research and development in the field of energy and environment: 'We cannot afford to ignore these research findings and their implications for worldwide sustainable development. [...] This study provides us with an invaluable insight into the world's energy and environmental problems of the future. It will enable us to establish our future research and technological development priorities in the energy and environment field.' One insight is that the world energy system will continue to be dominated by fossil fuels, making up almost 90 per cent of the total energy supply in 2030. Oil production will increase by 65 per cent and is expected to remain the main source of energy, followed by coal. In fact coal will continue to be extracted and production is expected to double by 2030, with most of the growth taking place in Asia and in Africa, notes the report. However, in Europe natural gas is expected to be the largest energy source after oil, but before coal and lignite. The report also shows however that European gas reserves are limited, which may lead to supply risks, as gas supplies will have to be imported from the Middle East and other regions, in order to meet the EU home market demand. Given the continued dominance of fossil fuels, the report estimates that the world carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) will increase rapidly at a rate of about two per cent a year. Alarmingly, CO2 emissions are expected to be more than twice the level that they were in 1990 by 2030. While CO2 emissions in Europe will rise by about 18 percent, the figures for the US show a 50 per cent increase. Furthermore, whereas developing countries accounted for only 30 per cent of emissions in 1990, the report finds that they will be responsible for more than half of the world's emissions by 2030. In light of these findings, '[t}o safeguard energy supplies and meet our Kyoto commitments, Europe must intensify its research efforts,' said Mr Busquin. The report estimates that if nuclear and renewable energies were implemented on a larger scale, the costs incurred in order to meet Kyoto targets could be reduced by 30 per cent However, by 2030, nuclear and renewable energies will represent less than 20 per cent of EU energy supply, the report notes. In an effort, to turn this figure around, 'the new EU framework programme for research is driving forward initiatives focusing on renewable energy sources, fuel cells and hydrogen technologies,' said Mr Busquin. Indeed, over two billion euro has been allotted for research into 'sustainable development, global change and ecosystems over the next four years.