The FutureMARES project successfully contributed science-based advice on how best to implement nature-based solutions (NBS) and sustainable, nature-inclusive harvesting to rebuild marine biodiversity and contribute to climate adaptation and mitigation:
Goal 1. Historical climate impacts on species and communities were analysed after compiling 88 time series (~512,000 obs.) spanning up to 4 decades. Advanced statistical methods explored relationships among traits, ecological functions and ecosystem services including reviews of ecological indicators.
Goal 2. Downscaled (higher spatial resolution) projections are available from an ensemble of Global Climate Models including uncertainty analyses. Results include warming, pH, dissolved oxygen concentration and productivity (Chlorophyl a) at three depth layers for three IPCC scenarios for all regions examined in FutureMARES. Maps of climate hotspots and refugia were produced.
Goal 3. Laboratory and field experiments compared the ecological function of healthy and degraded habitats including seagrasses, macrophytes and shellfish. This includes community carbon budgets and thermal / heat wave tolerance of key species. Adaptive capacity was explored by comparing climate sensitivity of populations of a species at lower (warmer) and higher (colder) latitudes.
Goal 4. Improved models have provided more robust projections of climate-driven changes in the distribution and/or productivity of i) plants and animals at the base of the food web being restored or harvested, ii) marine mammals, birds and at-risk species, iii) harvested fish and shellfish, and iv) whole food webs where 9 Digital Laboratories provided scenario-based NBS, NIH and climate projections of ecosystem-level changes at both basin (5) and sub-regional (4) scales.
Goal 5. A general methodology was designed for climate risk assessments (CRAs) with and without the implementation of NBS and NIH for different CC scenarios. The ecological risk of species and/or habitats, ecosystem services and social groups were completed and risks compared across climate scenarios, NBSs and regions. An online CRA tool was produced to allow broader, consistent implementation of methods.
Goal 6. A framework for ecosystem service indicators in relation to restoration, conservation and sustainable harvesting was compiled. Analyses used different techniques to gauge the economic trade-offs of implementing NBS and/or NIH. Methods included traditional valued (e.g. provisional - fisheries) as well as non-valued (cultural) ecosystem services.
Goal 7. Partners have actively used various engagement tools. Scenario narratives were co-developed with policymakers and were regionalized across FutureMARES Storylines. A Call for Knowledge Platform yielded two examples of new analyses co-created at the request of policy advisors in Ireland and Norway.
Goal 8. Policy-makers and managers have been continually updated on project progress. FutureMARES has been integrated within larger programs exploring NBS in terrestrial (rural, urban) and marine environments, and collaboration started with other projects examining CC adaptation and mitigation and/or solutions to the ongoing biodiversity crisis.
