One of the primary outcomes of the COMFORT research revealed the existence of emerging climate feedback due to ocean warming. These studies also identified numerous previously unconsidered processes that interactively contribute to the occurrence of critical change points which are projected to occur in the near future and can be irreversible towards the end of the century. According to this outcome, the assessment of reversibility for abrupt changes and regime shifts in the ocean indicates that only a substantial and immediate reduction in greenhouse gas emissions would have a partial capacity to induce reversibility. This reduction would primarily impact the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the decline of Arctic Sea ice. However, even after greenhouse gas emissions come to a halt, the triple threat posed by the ocean is expected to persist over the course of centuries. Over hundreds of high impact peer review articles have been published by COMFORT to disseminate these results to the academic sphere.
Through comprehensive analyses, COMFORT has identified and characterized the impacts, risks, and thresholds of ocean tipping points that affect marine ecosystems at various trophic levels. This encompasses evaluating both historical and projected tipping points that directly influence the biotic and abiotic drivers of ecosystems, as well as the vulnerability of fish stocks and coral reefs to abrupt changes. From this identified alarming change in the ocean, COMFORT proposed adoption of the Safe Operating Space (SOS) concept, part of the planetary boundary framework, analyze climate-induced abrupt changes affecting marine species and ecosystems which help to advise policy about future mitigation pathways.
Besides outstanding scientific peer reviewed article published on this subject, policy events, workshops, stakeholder engagement events, contribution to the IPCC and to the upcoming COP28 have been promoted and organize to communicate the imminent alert on ocean tipping point. Moreover, COMFORT was among the most productive EU projects (CINEA funded) concerning material cited in the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Working Groups I and II).
COMFORT also provided a set of mitigation strategies to address climate-induced tipping points and evaluate the potential risks associated with selected mitigation measures. Furthermore, they aimed to precisely identify ocean tipping points related to surpassing the temperature target (1.5°C) specified in the Paris Agreement. This was achieved by conducting idealized simulations that incorporated the implementation of large-scale carbon dioxide removal techniques. This includes pilot studies of carbon dioxide removal implementation but have warned about risks and uncertainties generated.
Dissemination of results has been strategically operated in using a new framework to facilitate and communicate project results in a language and format appropriate to Stakeholder Reference Group (SRG) and other target audiences. A web-based SRG interaction-platform and development of a collection of dissemination materials to facilitate interactions have been achieved by COMFORT. COMFORT members participated in important international scientific events to communicate these findings such as in EGU, AGU, and during COP28, to name a few.
Best practice of FAIR data mandate, open-access articles, and data protection ethics have been carefully conducted and ensured by COMFORT throughout the project.
COMFORT has been successfully completed. Four synthesis papers are currently being prepared for publication. These papers aim to effectively communicate all the findings, warn about urgent alerts, and efforts to bridge the knowledge gap on ocean tipping points in a succinct and informative manner.
